“Connecting People and Places” REGIONAL MOBILITY PLAN Future Scenarios October 19, 2009

Connecting People and Places Future Growth Scenarios Federal Highway Administration encourages the analysis of future scenarios in long range transportation planning FHWA is the review/certification agency Used in a numerous planning efforts across the country at all levels Provides a high–level conceptual view of the future Provides information for developing a policy framework for the region and local governments Achieve identified goals and objectives

Connecting People and Places Regional Mobility Plan Data Collection Establish Baseline and Future Conditions Future Scenarios Sector AnalysisCorridor Analysis Needs Assessment Determine Funding Constraints Prioritize Needs Develop Recommendations Regional Mobility Plan Goals & Objectives

Connecting People and Places Scenario Analysis Develop Goals and Objectives Develop Future Scenarios Develop Future Conditions Sector AnalysisCorridor Analysis Compare Scenario Results Analyze Scenarios and Quantify Results Prioritize Needs Develop Recommendations Regional Mobility Plan Utilize Existing Conditions

Connecting People and Places Future Growth Scenarios What the scenario analysis is: High level, conceptual look at future growth patterns and the impacts Basis for a framework for policy development What the scenario analysis is not: Development of prescriptive land use requirements for local governments Identification of parcel based land uses

Connecting People and Places Scenario Development Develop overall vision April, 2007 Retreat Developed mission and vision Four major themes Sustainability and quality of life Economic competitiveness and prosperity Interconnected regional multimodal transportation network Linking land use to transportation, economic development and the environment

Connecting People and Places Scenario Development Develop Guidance - Goals and Objectives April, 2009 Retreat Developed Guiding Principles Based on four major themes June, 2009 – September, 2009 Developed Goals and Objectives Drawn from vision and guiding principles Incorporated quality growth principles Incorporated SAFETEA-LU planning factors

Connecting People and Places Scenario Development Public/Stakeholder Participation Identification of issues Surveys and Exercises Community Choices survey Regional Mobility Survey Bucks exercise Identification of Goals Identification of future development patterns and transportation infrastructure

Connecting People and Places Scenario Development Future Development Scenarios Three scenarios for analysis: Scenario 1: “Business as Usual” Scenario 2: Quality Growth Principles Goals and Objectives Scenario 3?

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation LEON COUNTY: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES

WAKULLA COUNTY: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

JEFFERSON COUNTY: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

GADSDEN COUNTY: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Connecting People and Places Future Growth Scenarios Scenario # 1: “Business As Usual” What will our region look like if we keep doing what we are doing?

Connecting People and Places Future Growth Scenarios Scenario # 1: “Business As Usual” Identify developable land, excluding designated conservation areas; military/government areas; identified wetlands; and the incorporation of any designated buffer requirements Using base year population developed for travel demand model, identify existing densities within the region

Connecting People and Places Future Growth Scenarios Scenario # 1: “Business As Usual” Utilize population projections for planning horizon years (2040 and 2060) and assign existing densities to land suited for development Assignment hierarchy for development Approved planned developments Existing large parcels (i.e, timber company holdings) Land in proximity to existing suburban development Land in proximity to existing infrastructure

Connecting People and Places Future Growth Scenarios Scenario # 2: Quality Growth Principles and the Goals and Objectives

Connecting People and Places Future Growth Scenarios Scenario # 2: Quality Growth Scenario Utilize same population projections and land suited for development as Scenario 1 Apply constraints to the land suited for development, excluding Critical environmental areas that may be negatively impacted by growth and development Identify areas for focused density centers Increase densities within the identified growth centers Decrease densities outside of the growth centers

Connecting People and Places Future Growth Scenarios Scenario # 2: Quality Growth Scenario Assignment hierarchy for development Approved planned developments Existing areas of development Land served by existing infrastructure

Connecting People and Places Future Growth Scenarios Scenario # 3: Potential Options? Hybrid densities and assignment hierarchy Development within framework of comprehensive plans Development within framework of existing ordinances and regulations

Connecting People and Places Future Growth Scenarios Scenario Assessment will evaluate impacts on: Land use Transportation Environmental, Cultural and Historical Resources Safety and Security Quality of Life

Connecting People and Places QUESTIONS?