Travis D. Miller Department of Soil and Crop Sciences Texas AgriLife Extension Service The 2011 drought situation: July, 2011 Travis D. Miller Professor, Associate Head and Extension Program Leader Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Texas A&M

Travis D. Miller Department of Soil and Crop Sciences Texas AgriLife Extension Service The 9 month period ending in June 29 is the driest nine month period on record in Texas This drought is the 3 rd most severe on record (behind 1956 and 1918) as they were preceded by drier years Short and long range forecasts for improvement are not good Modelers suggest La Nina may be returning A significant tropical weather pattern may be the only way to alleviate it in the short run.

90 day, % of normal precipitation through July 8, 2011 The 90 day % of normal map shows large areas of the High Plains, Far West Texas, Central South and the Gulf Coast regions showing only 5- to 25% of normal precipitation for the last 3 months. Recent rains have improved parts of the Lower Valley.

180 day, % of normal Precipitation through July 8, 2011 The 180 day % of normal precipitation map shows parts of Far West at less than 5% of normal, most of the High Plains, West, Southwest Texas and the Rio Grande Valley at less than 25% of normal, with much of Central Texas and the Gulf Coast ranging from 25 to 50% of normal with East Texas mostly 50- to 75%.

90 day departure from normal, inches precipitation through July 8, 2011 The normal precipitation gradient declines across the state from east to west. This graphic shows that the departure from normal precipitation over the last 90 days varies from plus 1 to 4 inches in localities along the Red River and Rio Grande Valley to more than -12 inches in parts of the Upper Gulf Coast and Central Texas.

180 day departure from normal, inches precipitation, through 7/8/11 The 180 departure from normal map depicts much of the same pattern seen in the 90 day map, with very high deficits (12- to 20 inches in southeast Texas and widespread deficits of 6 to 12 inches across the state).

Time scale for the 2011 Texas drought indices The area and intensity of the Texas drought has increased sharply the last 3 months

The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated weekly

Texas Drought Situation, July 5, 2011

The Keetch-Byram index is used to predict dryness likely to promote wildfires, with an index of 0 being wet and 800 being the driest.

Estimated drought losses to Texas agriculture exceeded $4.1 billion in The current conditions in June 2011 reflect a larger and more intense drought pattern than was apparent at the same time in July 2011 drought conditions compared to July 2006 US Drought Monitor

July, 2011 drought conditions compared to July, 2009 drought U.S. Drought Monitor Estimated drought losses to Texas agriculture exceeded $3.6 billion in The current conditions in July 2011 reflect a larger and more intense drought pattern than was apparent at the same time in 2009.

U.S. Climate Prediction Center Climate outlook July-September 2011 The climate model forecast for the months of July through September 2011 indicate the La Nina which contributed to the current drought has shifted to neutral, giving Texas and surrounding states equal changes of above or below normal precipitation. Florida north to the mid-Atlantic states and the Northern Great Plains are forecast for above normal precipitation.

temperature outlook- 3month August-October 2011 U.S. Climate Prediction Center Texas and the southern U.S. have a high probability of above normal temperatures For the period of August through October 2011.

temperature outlook- 3month October-December 2011 U.S. Climate Prediction Center Texas and the southern U.S. have a high probability of above normal temperatures For the period of August through October 2011.

precipitation outlook- 3month October-December 2011 U.S. Climate Prediction Center The three month October-December forecast for precipitation has no pattern to suggest above or below normal, except for Far West and Southwest Texas, which have a measureable probability of below normal precipitation.

Climate Prediction Center drought outlook: July 7 to September 30, 2011 Much of Texas and Louisiana are projected to remain in drought or see drought intensify from Mid-June through September.