By Alexander Reichert, Robert Miller, and Sean Wasserman For the Love of the Game?

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Presentation transcript:

By Alexander Reichert, Robert Miller, and Sean Wasserman For the Love of the Game?

Overview Do today’s baseball players play for the love of the game or for the money? –Do players in the last year of their contract significantly outperform the average performance in the previous three years on a 162 game basis? –What effect does a change in a players efficiency rating in the last year of their contract have on their salary the following year, in a new contract?

Choosing the Sample Criteria Top Earners in 2008 Granted Free Agency Played in the League Three Years Prior Non-pitchers

Data Collection All of our data was collected from Baseball-Reference.com We selected 5 statistical categories for each player that we deemed represented offensive performance (Hits, Home Runs, RBIs, Strike Outs, and Total Bases) We then projected those statistics to a per 162 game basis so we could compare players evenly between the years To provide additional variables, our group gathered three binary data points: Whether the player was born outside the US Married Attended College SeasonsHHRRBISOTB

Our Highlighted Sluggers Adrian Beltre JD Drew SeasonsHHRRBISOTB%(+/-) H%(+/-) HR%(+/- ) RBI%(+/-) SO%(+/-) TB%(+/-) TotalPR%(+/-) PR %138%59%13%56%305% % SeasonsHHRRBISOTB%(+/-) H%(+/-) HR%(+/- ) RBI%(+/-) SO%(+/-) TB%(+/-) TotalPR%(+/-) PR %25%28%-19%25%81% %

Player Efficiency Rating Through in depth analysis of our baseball related statistics, coupled with a formula found on ESPN.com which measures and ranks quality of player, we were able to create a Player Efficiency Rating. This allowed us to weight our statistics to quantify our selected player’s efficiency Hits =.15 Home Runs =.3 RBI =.15 Strike Outs = (-).2 Total Bases =.2

Regression Analysis: PER Entire Sample Under 30 Sample

Regression Analysis: Salary Entire Sample 0.059

Conclusion of Analysis It’s all about the Benjamins! It’s for the love. No Babe