1. Norm O'Reilly, Alan Kaptan, Ryan Rahine, John Nadeau
"If You Can't Win, Why Should I Buy a Ticket?": Hope, Fan Welfare, and Competitive Balance
Norm O'Reilly, Alan Kaptan, Ryan Rahine, John Nadeau
Sean Sikorski

2. Overview
The success of a professional sport franchise is rooted in its relationship with its fans
A fan wants to see his or her favorite team win
Potentially will not spend their disposable entertainment dollars on a team that consistently loses

3. Overview
Discuss the link between the goal of the firm and the need for competitive balance
Establish fan welfare (satisfaction) as a goal of the firm
Introduce "hope" as an important dimension of fan welfare
The concept of hope is positioned as the uncertainty of outcomes (UOH)

4. The Need for CB to Promote Fan Welfare
The goal of the professional sports team (and possibly league) is, or should include, the promotion of fan welfare
Fan interest will result from an increase in the uncertainty of outcomes
Fans in some locations may be willing to pay more to see a winner, whereas fans in other locations may be more loyal to their teams
Free agency
leading to a lack of competitive balance

5.   What Is "Hope"?
Proper competitive balance will not exist until every well-run club has a regularly recurring hope of reaching postseason play
Three types of behavioral outcomes occur:
(1) commitments at the game level
(2) commitments at the within-season level
(3) commitments at the between-season level

6. As an example, the New York Yankees have regularly made the playoffs in recent years, but in so doing have not greatly deterred the hope of fans of other teams because there are multiple playoff spots available.

7. Method
Random sample survey was implemented during July of 2006 in a large urban center that is home to an MLB team
The survey was designed to assess the underlying themes of “hope” and test whether hope is a consideration in one's decision to consume baseball
Pinpoint when the average fan loses hope

8. Results Part 1: Random Sample Mass-market Survey
A sample of 367 individuals completed the survey. The characteristics of the sample include
54.5% male
67.8% with a university or college degree
25.3% spent their "recreational time" attending events
34.1% watching events/programs on television
8.0% listening to events/programs on the radio
22.3% consuming entertainment by the Internet
Specific to their lifetime consumption of MLB
62.7% had previously attended a MLB game
58.6% had watched an entire MLB game on television
21.0% had previously listened to an entire MLB game on the radio

9. Consequently, all types of fans (those who watch TV, those who attend games, and those who do both) are associated with hope

11. Results Part II - Trade Analysis
Results showed teams with 5.5 games or more out of a playoff spot mostly made trades where they let go of salary
Teams that were less than 5.5 games out of the playoffs mostly took on salary with their trades

12. Discussion and Conclusions
The results suggest that maximizing fan welfare is a legitimate goal of the firm
While maximizing aggregate fan hope across a league is important, it would not be beneficial to take every team into the playoffs
When CB is perceived to exist, the professional sports franchise may be able to attract previous attendees in higher numbers
Sport marketers should readily communicate the message of hope to the local market when the team has a good chance of winning a playoff position

13. Discussion and Conclusions
CB based on hope over time and to test whether this metric more effectively explains the relationship of CB and attendance
Test for the interaction effects of changes in playoff structure
A future study that looks at sold tickets not used or re-sold on a team's website