Thinking Like a Scientist

Goals of Psychology Describe Explain Predict Control behavior and mental processes

Or to Put it Another Way… Describe Control Understand/Explain/Interpret Predict Don’t Eat Purple Cheese!

Why is Research Important?

Research and Research Methodology Method of asking questions then drawing logical supported conclusions Researchers need to be able to determine if conclusions are reasonable or not (critical thinking). Candace Newmaker “Rebirthing” therapy example

Scientific Method Technique using tools such as observation, experimentation, and statistical analysis to learn about the world Through its use, psychology is thereby considered a science.

Steps to the Scientific Method Formulate testable questions –Develop hypotheses Design study to collect data –Experimental –Descriptive Analyze data to arrive at conclusions –Use of statistical procedures –Use of meta-analysis Report results –Publication –Replication

Theory Tentative explanation for observed findings Results from accumulation of findings of individual studies Tool for explaining observed behavior Reflects self-correcting nature of scientific method. Good way to think about a Theory: Prosecuting Attorney presents their theory backed up by evidence to the jury.

What are the Odds of Each?

1 in 2,598,960

What are the Odds of Each? 1 in 2,598,960

Common Sense Conclusions based solely on personal experience and sensible logic Can lead to incorrect conclusions because: –People interpret what common sense means differently –You may be missing important information that would help you come to a reasonable conclusion

Did you know… It is nearly impossible to fold a regular sheet of paper in half more than 7 times. Go ahead and try! Mythbusters pulled it off with a piece of paper as big as an airplane hanger and a steam roller.Mythbusters

Science vs. Common Sense Science helps build explanations that are consistent and predictive rather than conflicting and describing the past (hindsight) Science is based on –knowledge of facts –developing theories –testing hypotheses –public and repeatable procedures Common Sense is based on prior experience

Hindsight Bias The Tendency to exaggerate one’s ability to have foreseen how something would turn out after learning the outcome. The “I knew it all along” phenomenon. Week before the 1985 Super Bowl, 81% of Dr. Brigham’s students predicted the Miami Dolphins would win. 40% said the Dolphins would win by 10 or more points. A week after San Fransisco 49ers decisive victory, he asked the group who picked the 49ers. 58% said they picked the 49ers NO ONE remembered saying the Dolphins would win by at least 10 points.

Overconfidence Tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our current knowledge We are more confident than we are correct. “Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific advances.” - Lee DeForest, inventor of vacuum tube, 1957 “Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years.” - Alex Lewyt, manufacturer of vacuum cleaners, 1955 “Reagan doesn’t have the presidential look.” - United Artist Executive in turning Reagan down for the starring role in The Best Man, 1964.

Confirmation Bias Our tendency to search for information that confirms our preconceptions. Try this card trick: This works because we only look for our chosen card confirming Simeon’s mental telepathy and ignore the fact that second set of cards is in fact, an entirely new set! NONE of the cards in the new set is the same as the old one so of course the card you picked is missing.

DAILY DOUBLE

QUESTION What is the difference between Common Sense and Science? ANSWER: Common sense relies on the past and may be wrong. Science uses facts to provide consistent predictions

BOREDOM BUSTER! Common Sense tells us squirrels are harmless… OR ARE THEY? RUNNING OF THE SQUIRRELS