Quality Assessment and NEVS for NextGen Jennifer Mahoney NOAA/ESRL/GSD 2 Dec 2010 Interagency Aviation Meeting

Outline NextGen needs for forecast quality information Concepts in a user context NEVS – Delivery infrastructure Summary 2

NextGen Weather Integration Concept (Weather Integration Plan V1.0) 3

4 NextGen Weather Performance Needs Advanced assessment techniques and metrics Integrated with key operational decision criteria Provided in the context of the FAA operational user A net-enabled framework that allows effective and timely distribution of automated quality assessment information to NextGen users

NEVS in NextGen Weather Integration NEVS Quality of Wx Quality of Translated Wx Information Exchange 4D Wx SAS Performance Feedback Other Services Translation of Wea Aviation Operations Other Services Translation of Wea Aviation Operations Weather Translation for ATM Decision Support Translation of Weather for use in Aviation Operations Weather Translation for ATM Decision Support Translation of Weather for use in Aviation Operations Performance Feedback NOAA Forecast Process 5

Concepts With a User-specific Focus 6

Roles for Quality Metrics MeteorWAFMincutDelay 7

Forecast Accuracy Variations Summary Statistics Seasonal and regional variations Traditional point of view 8 Summer Winter

Forecast Value to Planning Processes 9 Risk AssessmentPlanning Efficiency Lower Risk Higher Risk More Efficient Less Efficient Operational Criteria

Sector Impact Measures 21 Aug 2009; 1500 UTC, 6h lead 10

NEVS For Effective Delivery of Information 11

12 NEVS Prototype 2010

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NEVS Services 14

NEVS Synthesis Input Service 15

NEVS Synthesis Service ATM DST ATM DST Forecast Weather IMPROVED Forecast Estimates of AFP Airspace Availability Forecast Synthesis CoSPA Pilot Deviation Prob Weather Avoidance Field (WAF) 35 kft CCFP LAMP NCWD Build historical performance for forecasts Decision support criteria is provided to NEVS WAF Forecast Synthesis Algorithm WAF Forecast Synthesis Algorithm NEVS provides scenario-specific synthesis input -10 min +10 min +20 min 0 min FCAA min +10 min +20 min 0 min FCAA08 16

Weather Synthesis 8/21 15Z 6-h lead 17

NEVS Decision Matrix 18

Synthesis Input NEVS – Network Enabled Verification Service Forecast B Forecast A Synthesized A & B Verification Metrics 19

NEVS Alert Service 20

Forecast weather Actual weather Tolerance Thresholds defined by user Ongoing monitoring of weather Alert when actual weather exceeds thresholds Plan is created at t=0 for 6 hr Planning period NEVS Alert Service 21

Summary NextGen Needs: User-specific Concepts Effective net-enabled delivery of the quality information to forecast and planning processes GSD is: Building and testing concepts Developing NEVS as an information delivery infrastructure 22

Questions 23

NEVS Prototype 24 Sector maps of CoSPA, CCFP, and CIWS analysis along with verification statistics

NEVS Prototype 25 Detailed view of verification statistics

NEVS Prototype 26 Detailed view of ingest status

Planning Point Capacity Plot Onset Cessation % Blockage as derived from Mincut Bottleneck Technique 27

Sector Jetway Corridor Bottleneck Hazard Blockage Potential 0.5 Mincut Bottleneck Technique 28

QUESTIONS? 29

Why Weather Performance Information is Different Therefore, to develop and produce performance information continually, A mechanism for managing data is required Integrating operational criteria with performance information is critical Distribution of the performance information when needed is vital 30

Why Weather Performance Information is Different Weather forecast data valid short period of time and then replaced with next forecast Performance information requires the entire history of forecast data for computing the metrics 31 Forecast Data Performance metrics computed using historical archive of forecast data

Working Assumption NextGen requires an integrated approach for diagnostic monitoring and automated evaluation of weather information (both realtime and historic) for effective air traffic management 32