> Keith Hembre, Chief Economist and Head of Quantitative Analysis > September 25, 2007 Investment Strategies in a Changing World.

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Presentation transcript:

> Keith Hembre, Chief Economist and Head of Quantitative Analysis > September 25, 2007 Investment Strategies in a Changing World

1 Global Economic Growth Has Been Strong, Led by Emerging Market Economies Source: International Monetary Fund (2007 and 2008 projections)

2 Global Inflation Rates Remain Low, US Core Inflation Within the Fed’s Comfort Zone Source: International Monetary Fund (2007 and 2008 projections)

3 Global Equity Market Performance in Recent Years Has Reflected Strong Growth and Low Inflation Source: MSCI Indices

4 Global Earnings Growth Remains Strong, U.S. Earnings Growth Decelerating Source: Standard and Poors, Thompson Analytics August 2007

5 Material Risks Remain for Future U.S. Economic Growth and Earnings Growth Despite Recent Rate Cut Source: FAF Advisors Research

6 Valuations Remain Reasonable, More Attractive for International Stocks and Less Attractive for Small Cap Source: Standard and Poors, Thompson Analytics September 10, 2007

7 Prospects of a Higher Unemployment Rate Result in Fed Rate Cut Source: Federal Reserve, U.S. Department of Labor; August 2007

8 Liquidity Had Been Abundant, But Has Become Scarce in Recent Weeks Source: Bloomberg; September 7, 2007

9 Recent Behavior of Credit Markets Suggest Greater Risk Aversion is Reducing Liquidity – Challenge to LBOs Source: Lehman Brothers

10 The Housing Sector and Mortgage Debt Are the Largest Risks Facing the US Economy Source: Standard and Poors Case Shiller Home Price Index

11 Economic Developments in China, Potential Overheating Are Likely the Biggest Risk to the Global Economy Source: Bloomberg; September 11, 2007

12 Slightly Defensive Asset Allocation Favoring International Equities While Underweight Small US Stocks and REITs Source: FAF Advisors; September 13, 2007