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The Wall of Worry: U.S. Economic and Market Outlook May 5, 2008 Samuel A. Wardwell, CFA Senior Vice President Director of Investment Communications Pioneer.

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Presentation on theme: "The Wall of Worry: U.S. Economic and Market Outlook May 5, 2008 Samuel A. Wardwell, CFA Senior Vice President Director of Investment Communications Pioneer."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Wall of Worry: U.S. Economic and Market Outlook May 5, 2008 Samuel A. Wardwell, CFA Senior Vice President Director of Investment Communications Pioneer Investment Management, Inc. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the investment professional and are subject to change at any time. These views do not necessarily reflect the views of Pioneer or others in the Pioneer organization. Not FDIC insuredMay lose valueNo bank guarantee

2 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 2 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Today’s Wall of Worry (a partial list)  Recession warnings  Credit crunch  Rising energy prices  Falling home prices  Sub-prime mortgage defaults  Falling dollar  Bear market  Politics

3 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 3 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Year-to-Date Market Returns Source: DataStream. Last data point: April 30, 2008 The S&P 500, MSCI EAFE, MSCI Emerging Markets, Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index, and ML High Yield Master II index are commonly accepted measures of the performance of US stocks, non-US developed-market stocks, emerging market stocks, investment-grade US bonds and US high yield bonds, respectively. Historical performance shown is provided to illustrate market trends and is not intended to represent the past or future performance of any Pioneer product. Indices are unmanaged and their returns assume reinvestment of dividends and, unlike investment products returns, do not reflect any fees or expenses. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

4 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 4 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. U.S. Economic and Market Outlook Key Themes  The economy had not entered recession at the end of 2007 and may well avoid recession in 2008 –The consumer is weakening, but aggressive fiscal stimulus is coming –The Fed has moved aggressively –Exports are a significant source of growth –Falling home prices and the credit crunch are significant sources of risk  Food and energy prices are rising, but core inflation is a lesser concern  Treasuries appear overvalued, while equities and credit bond market valuations appear relatively inexpensive

5 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 5 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. First Quarter GDP Growth (Advance Reading) Was 0.6% Growth Has Slowed…But Is it a Recession? Source: DataStream. Last data point: 4 th quarter 2007 (Advance)

6 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 6 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Pioneer’s U.S. Real GDP Forecast: Recession Not Expected Historical Data Source: DataStream. Last data point: 1 st quarter 2007 (Advance) Projections by Pioneer Investments Macroeconomics Team. Last forecast: March 26, 2008

7 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 7 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Components of GDP Growth Pioneer’s 2008 U.S. Real GDP Forecast: 1.9% Source: Pioneer Investments Macroeconomics Team. Last forecast: March 26, 2008

8 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 8 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The U.S. Housing Market Remains Weak Source: DataStream. Last data point: March, 2008

9 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 9 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Homebuilding Continues to Contract Source: DataStream. Last data point: March, 2008

10 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 10 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Home Prices are Falling Source: DataStream. Last data point: March, 2008

11 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 11 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Elements of the Credit Market Crisis  Securitization  Relying on ratings  Greed  Leverage  Mark-to-market  Margin calls  Fear  Panic

12 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 12 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: FactSet. Last data point: April 30, 2008 Fear and Illiquidity in Interbank Lending Markets

13 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 13 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A Flight to Quality Source: DataStream. Last data point: April 30, 2008

14 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 14 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A Flight to Quality…And a Partial Retreat Source: DataStream. Last data point: April 30, 2008

15 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 15 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inflation-Adjusted 10-Year Treasury Yields Are Near 25-Year Lows Source: DataStream. Last data point: April 30, 2008

16 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 16 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Evolving Federal Reserve Outlook…And Willingness to Act Excerpts from Recent Press Releases and Speeches  September 18, 2007: “…intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets…”  February 14, 2008: “The Federal Open Market Committee will be carefully evaluating incoming information bearing on the economic outlook and will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks.”  April 30, 2008: “…will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.” Source: Federal Reserve press releases and congressional testimony

17 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 17 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Monetary Policy Is Very Accommodative The Fed Funds Rate is Below Trailing 12-Month Core Inflation Source: DataStream. Last data point: April 30, 2008

18 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 18 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Oil Prices Increases are Accelerating …And Food Prices are in the Headlines Source: DataStream. Last data point: April 30, 2008

19 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 19 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Commodity Prices Have Lifted Headline CPI relative to Core CPI The Fed’s Focus is (Appropriately) on Core CPI Source: DataStream. Last data point: March, 2008

20 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 20 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Unit Labor Costs and Inflation: Strong Long-Term Relationship Recent Data Suggests Diminishing Labor Cost Pressures on Core CPI Source: DataStream. Last data point: 2007Q4

21 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 21 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Unemployment Rate Stands at 5.0% Unemployment is Not Rising as Rapidly as in Past Recessions Source: DataStream. Last data point: April, 2008

22 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 22 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Initial Unemployment Claims Continue to Trend Higher But Remain Below Levels of the Last Recession Source: DataStream. Last data point: week ending April 26, 2008

23 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 23 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. New Job Creation Continues to Weaken But Job Losses Are Not (Yet) as Severe as in the Last Recession Source: DataStream. Last data point: March, 2008

24 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 24 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Why Employment Matters: A Top-Down View of the US Economy Source: DataStream

25 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 25 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Incremental Contribution to Rolling 4-Quarter GDP Growth Spending Growth Has Slowed, But Not Stopped Source: DataStream. Last data point: 1 st Quarter 2008 (Advance)

26 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 26 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 Should Provide Significant Stimulus for Consumer Spending Source: DataStream. Last data point: 2007Q4

27 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 27 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. US Trade Weighted Dollar Is At 30-Year Lows Source: DataStream. Last data point: March, 2008

28 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 28 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Stronger Export Growth is Shrinking the Trade Deficit Source: DataStream. Last data point: 1 st Quarter 2008 (Advance)

29 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 29 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. U.S. Capacity Utilization Remains at High Levels And Industrial Production Continues to Grow Source: DataStream. Last data point: March, 2008

30 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 30 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Losses in the Financial Sector Have Stalled Profit Growth Profit Growth Outside the Financial Sector Remains Solid Source: DataStream. Last data point: 4 th Quarter 2007

31 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 31 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. U.S. Equity Valuations Are Very Attractive Relative to Treasury Yields The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index (the S&P 500) is a commonly used measure of the broad U.S. stock market. The historical performance shown is provided to illustrate market trends and is not intended to represent the past or future performance of any Pioneer product. Indices are unmanaged and their returns assume reinvestment of dividends and, unlike investment products returns, do not reflect any fees or expenses. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Source: DataStream. Last data point: April 30, 2008

32 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 32 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. High Yield Bond Default Rates Remain Low Defaults are Expected to Rise… Source: Moody’s Investor Service. Chart prepared by Pioneer. Last data point: March, 2008.

33 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 33 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Credit Spreads Remain Extremely Wide After the Flight to Quality Spreads Have Narrowed Slightly Since Mid-March Source: Bloomberg. Last data point: April 30, 2008 +3 sd +2 sd +1 sd Average -1 sd -2 sd

34 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 34 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Wider Spreads Were Largely the Product of Lower Treasury Yields Investment-Grade Corporate Bond Yields Have Not Risen Dramatically Source: Bloomberg. Last data point: April 30, 2008

35 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 35 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The US Dollar in 2007-8 A Bottom or Just a Bear Market Rally? Source: DataStream. Last data point: April 30, 2008

36 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 36 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. U.S. Economic and Market Outlook Summary  The economy can avoid recession in 2008 + weak dollar, fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary policy - House prices, credit availability, systemic risk  Home prices are a key source of risk  There is elevated risk of systemic failures in the financial system  Investor psychology remains dominated by fear  Valuations appear to reflect market technical conditions more than underlying fundamentals

37 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 37 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Global Tactical Asset Allocation Outlook – April 24, 2008  Global Equities –US –Europe –Japan –Emerging Markets  Bonds –US Government –European Government –Japanese Government –US Inv. Grade Corporate –US High Yield Corporate –European Corporate  US Cash/Liquidity  U.S. Dollar  Yen  Euro Source: Pioneer Investments Global Asset Allocation Committee. Last update: April 24, 2008

38 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 38 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment Suitability Is Important Pioneer Investment Management USA, Inc. 60 State Street Boston, Massachusetts www.pioneerinvestments.com  2008 Pioneer Investments There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the investment professional and are subject to change at any time. These views do not necessarily reflect the views of Pioneer or others in the Pioneer organization. Learn More For information about Pioneer Investments or Pioneer products and services, visit us at www.pioneerinvestments.comwww.pioneerinvestments.com

39 19220-21-0508 | May 2008 | Page 39 There is no guarantee that forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Glossary of Terms The consumer price index (CPI) is a statistical time-series measure of a weighted average of prices of a specified set of goods and services purchased by consumers. The CPI measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because they are highly volatile. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances (federal funds) at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is a composite index of commodity sector returns, representing an unleveraged, long-only investment in commodity futures that is broadly diversified across the spectrum of commodities. The returns are calculated on a fully-collateralized basis with full reinvestment. The combination of these attributes provides investors with a representative and realistic picture of realizable returns attainable in the commodities markets. Government Bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. A Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) is identical to a treasury bond except that principal and coupon payments are adjusted to eliminate the effects of inflation. The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index (the S&P 500) is a commonly used measure of the broad U.S. stock market. Indices are unmanaged and it is not possible to invest directly in an index.

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