1. where to invest now

2. Your Money Advisors Francis Investment Counsel: Plan Consultants
Financial Education Events
“No Sales” Personal MoneyAdvice Sessions
On-site, On-the-go, On-demand

5. App

6. Our Agenda Recent Market Performance
Expectations for Next Months
Fund Performance Update

7. CNN Money, 6/10/18
CNBC, 6/11/18
Forbes, 9/5/18
CNBC, 6/22/18
NPR, 5/11/18
Business Insider, 4/29/18
WSJ, 6/10/18

8. Record-Breaking Recovery
Since the stock market bottomed in March of 2009, the S&P 500 has cumulatively returned how much through August 31, 2018:
126%
B) 189%
C) 290%
D) 382%

9. Record-Breaking Recovery
Since the stock market bottomed in March of 2009, the S&P 500 has cumulatively returned how much through August 31, 2018:
126%
B) 189%
C) 290%
D) 382%
Source: Bloomberg
Past Performance is no guarantee of future results.

10. Record-Breaking Recovery
The path higher has had some drama
Europe “on Fire”
Oil Collapse
China Troubles
Trade War
Source: StyleAdvisor
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

11. Market Performance Recap
Market Index Returns – One year ending
Source: StyleAdvisor
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

12. U.S. Companies Have Done Well
Big U.S. companies outperform “analyst expectations”
Company Results:
Better Than Expected
Source: Bloomberg

13. Trade War – Look Out
Nobody wins in a trade war, but not everyone loses the same
Source: IMF, Morningstar
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

14. Our Agenda Recent Market Performance
Expectations for Next Months

15. The Global Economy

16. Global Expansion Remains Robust
Corporate earnings are trending higher
Source: IMF, JPM, MSCI, Bloomberg

17. Trade War – Should We Worry?
Even when including the impact of tariffs, global manufacturing is expanding
Source: OECD, JPM, Bloomberg

18. U.S. Equities

19. U.S. Economy “Leading Economic Indicators” are Looking Good
Economic Expansion Expected
Economic Contraction Expected
Source: Bloomberg, Conference Board

20. U.S. Economy What are these Leading Economic Indicators? ▲ ▲▲ ▼
10 Components
What it Means to You
Data Trend*
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
People making stuff RIGHT NOW ▲
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Are more or less people working RIGHT NOW? ▲▲
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
Will stuff be made in the near future?
ISM Index of New Orders
Measure of Demand for New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Measure of Demand for Stuff, no airplanes included
Building permits, new private housing units
New homes that WILL BE built ▼
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Rising/Falling stock prices helpful for next 6-months
Leading Credit Index
How hard is it to get access to money?
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Difference in data can signal overall economic direction
Source: Bloomberg, Conference Board, FRED
*Trends provided by Francis Investment Counsel

21. Date of Mid-Term Election S&P 500 Index Total Return 1-Year Later
What about Mid-Term Elections?
Date of Mid-Term Election
S&P 500 Index Total Return 1-Year Later
11/2/1954
38.96%
11/4/1958
14.66%
11/6/1962
29.01%
11/8/1966
16.70%
11/3/1970
16.34%
11/5/1974
24.11%
11/7/1978
12.40%
11/2/1982
25.41%
11/4/1986
4.25%
11/6/1990
29.32%
11/8/1994
30.39%
11/3/1998
22.10%
11/5/2002
17.01%
11/7/2006
8.74%
11/2/2010
5.84%
11/4/2014
6.71%
Median
16.86%
Average
18.87%
Source: Bloomberg
Past Performance is no guarantee of future results.

22. U.S. Equities Solid economic fundamentals Low near-term recession risk
Stock prices are higher relative to other parts of the world
We are Neutral/Overweight on U.S. Equities

23. International Equities

24. Valuations Attractive
Both developed- and emerging-market equities are relatively cheaper vs. U.S. equities.
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg

25. International Equities
Younger recoveries with more room for growth
Equites trade at a discount to U.S.
More exposed to a prolonged trade war
Economic fundamentals are more fragile than U.S.
We are Neutral on Developed Market Equities
We are Overweight on Emerging Market Equities

26. Hard Assets

27. Catalysts for Commodities
Late-cycle dynamics tends to bode well for hard assets and commodity prices look very cheap relative to equities
Source: Bloomberg
Past Performance is no guarantee of future results.

28. Hard Assets
U.S. output gap is closed, setting up a favorable environment for inflation-sensitive assets
A strong global economy is supporting demand growth for most commodities
We are Neutral/Overweight on Hard Assets

29. Bonds

30. Rates on the Rise
The Federal Reserve Bank is actively trying to push rates higher, weighing on bond values
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

31. Bonds
Low absolute yields, monetary tightening, burgeoning inflation, and heightened interest rate risk all portend a difficult environment for bonds
Higher absolute yields and depressed currency values make us slightly more optimistic on emerging market debt
We are Neutral/Underweight on U.S. Fixed Income
We are Neutral on Emerging Market Debt

32. Our Agenda Recent Market Performance
Expectations for Next Months
Fund Performance Update

34. Putnam Stable Value Fund
Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/2018
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

35. Vanguard Total Bond Mkt Index Instl Fund
Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/2018
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

36. DFA Inflation-Protected Securities I Fund
Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

37. DFA Inflation-Protected Securities I Fund
Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe

38. MFS Emerging Mkts Debt R6 Fund
Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

39. MFS Emerging Mkts Debt R6 Fund
Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe

40. Dodge & Cox Stock Fund Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

41. Dodge & Cox Stock Fund
Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe

42. Vanguard Institutional Index I Fund
Fund Performance vs Index as of 8/31/18
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

43. Harbor Capital Appreciation Ret Fund
Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

44. Harbor Capital Appreciation Ret Fund
Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe

45. DFA US Targeted Value I Fund
Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

46. DFA US Targeted Value I Fund
Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe

47. Vanguard Small-Cap Index Adm Fund
Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

48. Loomis Sayles Sm-Cap Growth Instl Fund
Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

49. Loomis Sayles Sm-Cap Growth Instl Fund
Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe

50. Harbor International Retirement Fund
Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

51. Harbor International Retirement Fund
Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe

52. Amer Funds EuroPacific Growth R6 Fund
Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

53. Amer Funds EuroPacific Growth R6 Fund
Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe

54. Oppenheimer Developing Mkts I Fund
Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

55. Oppenheimer Developing Mkts I Fund
Performance vs. Mutual Fund Universe

56. Morgan Stanley Instl Frontier Em Mkts Fund
Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

57. PIMCO CommodityPLUS Strategy I Fund
Performance vs. Index as of 8/31/18
The information presented in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and any references to the performance of markets, indexes, stocks, and economic data are provided to support the opinions of Francis Investment Counsel which can change at any time.

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