2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s 2002 victory – the ascendance of ‘red’ Maryland over ‘blue’ 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

What was the significance of Ehrlich’s 2002 victory? Was this a personal victory for Bob Ehrlich, or a general victory for the Republican Party and new policy priorities? 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s vote in 2006

2002 vs Ehrlich drops from 51.6% to 47.7% 879,592 votes to 825,464 (-54,128) Dem rises from 813,422 to 942, 279 (+128,857) Ehrlich’s largest drop in counties that were most supportive in 2002 – down 7% from 67% to 60% in ’02 majority counties Small drop in least supportive jurisdictions – down from 29% to 27% 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

2006 Elections: A Return to a Blue Maryland? Counties by Republican Score Strong R 60+ Rep score Leans R Rep score Contested Rep score Leans D Rep score Strong D 0-39 Rep score Jurisdiction Ehrlich '06 Rep Local offices Rep Gen AssemRep Score Carroll Garrett Caroline Frederick Harford Washington Allegany Kent Somerset Queen Anne's Anne Arundel Calvert Talbot Dorchester Wicomico Cecil Worcester St. Mary's Howard Baltimore Charles Montgomery Baltimore City23008 Prince George's21007

Composite Picture – Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

Trends in Party Registration - Statewide 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages? Democratic defectors hold the key to Ehrlich success in 2002: All Rep and unaffiliated voters = Ehrlich ’02 vote = Democratic defections (and other party registrants): Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

Anne Arundel Only Results

2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates

2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Focus

How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages – Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Democratic defectors more numerous (17%) than Republican defectors (10%) Unaffiliated voted disproportionately for Ehrlich (54%) Party Registration EhrlichO’MalleyOthersDidn’t vote Case s Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated Other Elections: Party Defections – Govr’s Race Anne Arundel County Results

What issues were salient in Governor’s Race in 2006? Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Depends how you ask the question! Closed-ended: Economy -21% Education – 18% Taxes – 16% Crime - 13 Open-ended: Education – 18% Taxes – 8% Economy – 5% Crime -4% Issue Type of PollClosed-ended IssueClosedOpenEhrlichO’Malley Economy Education Taxes Crime Growth Cost of living6350 Slots Healthcare Environment Work with legislature College tuition Nothing cited051 Total Elections: Govr’s Race - Anne Arundel County

Type of SurveyClosed-ended TraitsOpenClosedEhrlichO’Malley Honesty, trustworthy All others Party 70-- Leadership, competence, has a plan Clear, straightforward, forthright 60-- Generally likeable character 60-- Persistent, consistent 50-- Right experience Past record 30-- Integrity/right moral outlook Overall beliefs 30-- Family man Understand the needs of others Works well with others Total100 Traits Motivating Vote for Governor Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Informed about Governor/County Executives Candidates’ Stands on Issues? How informed? Govr Cty Exec. Very5634 Somewh at3745 Not very721 Total100

Traits Motivating Vote for Governor – Exceeds Party Expectations? 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

Anne Arundel County Only: Demographics and the Vote for Governor - Age

2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Exit Poll: Demographics and the Vote for Governor - Gender

Demographics and Vote for Governor - Race 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

Demographics: Lower income negates Ehrlich vote advantage on education Lower IncomeHigher Income 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

Anne Arundel County Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Council District

2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Anne Arundel County Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Countywide Races

2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County More Voting Quirks: Republicans dominate absentee/provisional ballots

2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County County Executive Results

Anne Arundel Only: Vote for County Executive/County Executive by Party (short form) RepublicansDemocratsDidn’t Vote EhrlichLeopoldO’MalleyJohnsonGovr.County Exec. Cases Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated Other Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County More defections in County Executive race; unaffiliated voters move from Republican to Democratic support

2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Changes in County Executive Vote from Governor by Partisanship

2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

County Executive Candidates: Issues and Traits Traits and the Vote for County Executive Issues and the Vote for County Executive 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

Age/Education and County Executive Vote vs. Governor Vote 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County County Executive Vote and Demographics

Factors Influencing the Vote for County Executive by Candidate InfluenceOverallLeopoldJohnsonCases The candidate or a representative came to my door to introduce him/herself Information from the Internet Literature received in the mail Endorsed by a newspaper like the Capital, Washington Post or the Sun Newspaper stories about candidate Conversations with friends or family I saw the candidate speak at a public forum Endorsed by some person or group I respect Paid ads in the newspapers Candidate’s name from signs along major roads Paid ads on TV I personally knew the candidate from church, civic/sports association, etc Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

County Council: Districts firm up partisan images 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Schools and Taxes Since the Elections: Schools and Taxes Visions for Anne Arundel County Public Schools% I favor a school system which is absolutely top quality regardless of the cost.50 I favor a school system which is of good quality but doesn’t increase my taxes.36 Other volunteered answer7 No answer7 Total100 Support for Superintendent’s Request for a 17% School Budget Increase ? Position % Fully fund this proposal by raising some County taxes. 25 Fully fund this proposal by reducing other County services 20 Partially fund this proposal to the extent possible without increasing taxes or reducing other County services. 43 Other volunteered answer 6 No answer 7 Total 100

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: How to Pay for Looming County Expenses? ResponsePercent The county should pay for these expenses without raising any taxes or fees, even if it has to cut back on other public services 31 The county should pay for these expenses by a combination of cost reductions and tax increases 55 Some other volunteered answer8 No answer7 Total101

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: Taxes and Spending Balance Generally, do you trust the County to find the right balance between paying for these expenses and keeping taxes as low as possible?

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Heard about BRAC? Positive or Negative Impact? Since the Elections: BRAC

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: Various State and Local Legislative Proposals ProposalAgreeDisagreeNo answer Banning all roadside solicitation on County roads76213 Increasing the cigarette tax by one dollar to help pay for increasing health insurance coverage to the uninsured Banning smoking in all restaurants and bars68293 Forcing all new cars sold in Maryland to comply with California pollution standards Repealing the death penalty in Maryland33589

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: President Bush’s Job Approval