Working Group on Nowcasting Research A Brief Introduction Paul Joe

Advise Promote Nowcsting Advance the Science Publish and Convene Capacity Build and Technology Transfer Mandate of WGNR

Nowcasting is precise in space, time and weather element. Nowcasting is forecasting with local detail, by any method, over a period from the present to a few hours ahead; this includes a detailed description of the present weather. In the foreseeable future it is most likely that it will be possible to make deterministic and probabilistic nowcasts for end-users of the 0-6h time period with sufficient time and space specificity to effectively mitigate losses or enhance benefits. Conway, 1988

Nowcasts leads to a “ call to action ” disaster (Flood/Landslide) 1 hour before 3-6 hours before evacuation Nowcast (Anal) >warning VSRF (Anal+NWP) >caution Met. Information 1-2 days before SRF (NWP) >Outlook Local Government Citizen Stand by Ready to take action preparation Action for recovery Cancel warning Back to normal (recovery) Action for disaster prevention Precip. Intensity Keep in mind Is the skill of our forecast fulfilling their needs? Courtesy, Shingo Yamada JMA

CSI of 0.2 is not good enough! Zawadzki

Strategic Plan Promotion and Facilitation of Nowcasting Science –Improving Predictive skill and characterizing uncertainty –Promoting physically based nowcast prediction through hi res modelling and data assimilation Nowcasting Systems and Process Development Information Exchange and Capacity Building Enhancing Transfer of Nowcasting Research to Operations

Implementation Promote nowcasting science (RDP), transfer of technology and science through Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDP) and assist in the development of nowcast test beds. Organization of international nowcasting conferences and specialist symposia, training workshops and collaboration with WMO and CBS Inter comparison and systematic testing of these algorithms on common and representative databases (including consideration of extreme and high impact events) would provide valuable assessment and help define optimal paths for development. Promote collaboration amongst National Meteorological Services (NMS’s) to develop nowcasting capabilities

How? Symposia FDP, RDP, DC-FDP, Test Beds Workshops Training Workshops Other Projects (e.g. RQQI,…) Collaborations (promote and develop) Advice

RDP

FDP’s

DC-FDP

Test Bed Longer term demonstration project JONAS activity! Lead to operational implementation – forecast system definition! Better statistics for verification Better end-user interaction for social impacts

WWRP/NWG History WWRP Conceived Algorithms / Nowcast Teams Meet at Austin Radar Conference Olympic Focus S2K Kick Off Meeting Reading Sydney 2000 Athens “no go” WG’s formed -Nowcasting -Verification -Social Impacts -Tropical… B08 Kick Off (3) MAP B08SNOW-V10 WSN05 WSN09 V10 KO SNOWV10 KO

Current operational nowcasting programs only focus on summer convection! U.S. ~1952 Canada ~1980 Australia ~1990 China ~2003 Romania ~2003 Germany 2005 Japan 2008

Other Related WMO/WWRP Programs Central Basic Systems/Public Weather Service (e.g., WENS, SWFDP, MWA) Commission on Instruments Methods and Observations (e.g., RQQI) Verification Working Group Mesoscale Working Group Social Economic Working Group

Where Are We Going? Purpose of the meeting! More FDP’s, RDP’s, Training Workshops Symposia and advancing nowcasting workshops? DC-FDP? non-radar DP? Advancing Training Centre Forecast Systems/Test Beds Instruments for nowcasting