2 Working Group on Nowcasting Research Slobodan Nickovic, Tom Keenan, Steve Goodman, Alan Seed, Thomas Haiden, Jenny Sun, Ted Nakazawa, Marianne Koenig, Jian Jie Wang, Augusto Pereira, Peter Li, Paul Joe and Jim WilsonOutlineWhat is Nowcasting?WGNR MandateWGNR Activities
3 WHAT IS NOWCASTING 0-6 hr forecasting by any method Originally defined by Browning for the1st Nowcasting Conference in 1981 as:Nowcasting definition – description of the current state of theweather in detail and the prediction of changes in a few hours0-6 hr forecasting by any methodspatial scale of no more than a few kilometers (1-3 km) with frequent updates (5-10 min)Heavy emphasis on observations
4 It is much more than that! Highly application or user dependent!Nowcasts are precise in weather element, time and space!“Call to Action!”Extreme events!
5 WHY NOWCASTING? Construction Transportation Sporting events Concerts Only on the nowcasting time and space scale is there sufficient forecast skill that people will take actions to save life, property, and human inconvenience .ConstructionTransportationSporting eventsConcertsAviation
6 Convective weather are traditional operational application of nowcasting.
7 Aviation deicing application needs precipitation type, intensity to resolution of minutes and kilometers.
9 Ski Jump experiences ~7-8 min fluctuations of the up/down slope wind UpslopeTransition from drainage to upslopeDrainage2 hour of 1 second dataGraph courtesy of Andrew TeaklesBottom Top
10 Advance and Understanding the ScienceTechnology TransferCapacity BuildPromote NowcastingAmong WMO Members
11 Firm Target development Forecast Demonstration ProjectsSydney 2000, Beijing 2008Research Development ProjectsBeijing 2008, SNOW-V10Sochi 2014, Rio 2016Developing Country Forecast Demonstration Project1:1, Mentoring, Legacy of Research CapacityLake Victoria, SE AsiaTrainingS2K, Brasilia, South Africa, MicronesiaB08, V10WorkshopsHeuristic Nowcasting, NWP for NowcastingObservations for NowcastingSymposiaWSN05, WSN09, WSN12VerificationSocietal ImpactsFirm Target development
12 Can a standard thermometer be used for nowcasting? HMP45CStandard NetworkThermometerInversion is ~here. HMP45C sees ithigher on ascent and lower on descent
14 Activities WG-MWFRHelp set up/involvement in RDP’s/FDP’s (COPS, FROST14, …)Promote mesoscale research cooperation / proposals on:Mesoscale modelling aspects: e.g. WGNE grey zone projectMesoscale DA experimentation: e.g. HYMEX data assimilation and predictability testbedLAM EPS experimentationUrban meteorology: e.g. TOMACS campaignVerification: e.g. JWGFVR ICP2 projectOrganize dedicated workshops on specific topicsOther activities on:consider/promote worldwide standards for (routine) mesoscale model quality assessmentinventory of available mesoscale training material/activities, gaps thereinNWP in Nowcasting workshop, October 2011
15 Ongoing and possible future RDP/FDP’s COPS: convective orographic precipitation study (nearly completed,final workshop spring 2012)FROST-14: high-resolution deterministic and probabilistic forecasting and nowcasting in support of Sochi 2014 Winter OlympicsParticipation in HYMEX TTM4: data assimilation and predictabilityPossible future RDP’s:TOMACS: Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convective Study: attempt to engage international community in an RDPTropical cyclone modellingNWP in Nowcasting workshop, October 2011
17 The Olympic Sochi Testbed (FROST-2014)Main objectives:Improve and exploit:Nowcasting techniquesHigh-resolution analyses and forecasts for complex terrain/winter conditionsRegional and convection-permitting EPSImprove understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region;Deliver forecasts in real time to Olympic forecasters and decision makers and quantify benefits of forecast improvement
18 TOMACS: Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study: high density observation/modelling campaign over Tokyoひょうあられ氷晶降水コア雷Polarmetric C band Doppler radar （MRI）Doppler Lidar2D scanX band radarSurface rain gaugeGPS receiverLightning Detection3D scanX band radarsondesCollaboration with MILT, NIED, NICT, OU, ..Moist airMW radiometer約10km
20 Why this workshop? Mesoscale models moving into the nowcasting range: Rapid update cyclingAssimilation of relevant spatially and temporally dense observations which are traditionally important to nowcasting (radar!)High-resolution modellingConvection-permitting ensembles under developmentOption for ensemble nowcasting?… but demands from nowcasting may be different from short-range forecastingTo what extent is mesoscale NWP presently capable of meeting the needs of nowcasting, either directly or indirectly?Get nowcasting and mesoscale NWP communities together to define the way forward (set up research agenda)NWP in Nowcasting workshop, October 2011
21 Expected outcome:Overview of state-of-the-art of present use of mesoscale NWP in support of nowcasting, directly and indirectlyIdentify the requirements of nowcasting on mesoscale NWPInventory of possible ways forward to enhance the capability of mesoscale NWP to support nowcasting, and associated researchDescription of the main outcomes in a BAMS paper?Proposals for joint research activities to further the field?NWP in Nowcasting workshop, October 2011
22 Workshop Expectations Proposals to advance the science of NWP for NowcastingHi resolution (radar) data assimilation RDP/FDP observationsRadar data assimilation RDP