SANREM CRSP Sustainable Agriculture and Natural Resource Management (SANREM) Collaborative Research Support Program (CRSP) Office of International Research, Education and Development (OIRED) at Virginia TechOIRED USAID

SANREM CRSP Planning Award Application Lead Institution: Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida Title: Caribbean Food Systems Vulnerability to Global Environmental Change PI: James W. Jones, Professor, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida. CO-PIs: Walter Baethgen, Director, Latin America/Caribbean Program, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University; Mike Brklacich, Professor, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, John Ingram, Director, GECAFS International Project Office; Arvin R. Mosier, Visiting Professor, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida; Ranjit Singh, Head of Department of Economics and Extension, The University of the West Indies; Sergio Sepulveda, Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA); Adrian Trotman, The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

Objectives and Approach for a 4-year SANREM CRSP Project. The thrust of the research for the SANREM Project (GECAFS Caribbean Phase II) will characterise the food systems for three case study countries (Guyana, Haiti, and Jamaica), and deliver an assessment of GEC and socioeconomic stresses on these case-study Caribbean food systems.

Objectives and Approach for a 4-year SANREM CRSP Project. (Continued) The characterization and assessment will explore gender specific issues related to each phase of each food system. These products will underpin the development of a prototype decision support system (DSS) that will be designed to link GEC and national and regional food systems.

To implement these objectives we will first enlist the aid of the country-based USAID Mission offices to locate partners and use GECAFS relations within CARICOM, CARDI, UWI, CIMH, IICA and IFRPI. Working with these partners, we will develop a project to: identify key food systems and their vulnerabilities, develop different scenarios as to the effect of GEC on the Caribbean single market approach and economy, adapt the University of Florida climate risk DSS (Jones et al. 1998; SEC, 2005) to key food systems, and integrate the food production DSS with socioeconomic factors to permit use of DSS to make decisions on adaptation of food systems.

We expect to use this program for training systems scientists by engaging Ph.D. level students, emphasis will be placed on recruiting female students, from each country in DSS development, and additional students who will direct their efforts into scenarios development and integrating production DSS with socioeconomic development.

Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Adaptation Decision Support Research will be closely coordinated on a regional basis and tied to the international GECAFS project within the overall GECAFS conceptual framework.

Users & Stakeholders Food System Assess Vulnerability of FS Scenarios of GEC & FS GECAFS DSS Based on UF Climate DSS Adapted FS Climate Risk DSS + Socioeconomic Assessment of Adapted FS GECAFS-DSS Approach for region or country analysis of Food Systems and GEC New FS

Activities and Products for a 4-year SANREM CRSP Project Output 1: Standardized characterisation and classification of food systems for three country case studies (Guyana, Haiti, and Jamaica). Activity 1.1: Identify food systems Activity 1.2: Characterise and quantify natural resources and socio-economic conditions Activity 1.3: Document and disseminate findings

Output 2: Initial assessments of vulnerability of the food systems. Activity 2.1: Assess vulnerability of the food system Activity 2.2: Synthesise methodologies and results of different case studies Activity 2.3: Document and disseminate findings

Output 3: Analysis of socioeconomic and environmental tradeoffs of alternative food policy and technical options at national and regional levels. Activity 3.1: Construct scenarios for the case study countries and the region considering the feedbacks from the global and national food systems

Output 4: Identify and involve users of Decision Support Systems for analysing socioeconomic and environmental consequences of alternative policies and GEC in prototype DSS design. Activity 4.1: Identify key DSS users and define key biophysical and socioeconomic variables for DSS inputs and outputs Activity 4.2: Develop DSS conceptual framework, and identify processes and mechanisms for linking the country models with the regional scenarios of food and water Activity 4.3: Review and preliminary testing of the DSS in the case study sites Activity 4.5: Develop regional-scale DSS

Output 5: Capacity building of regional stakeholders and scientists through collaborative analysis. Activity 5.1: Conduct interactive workshops involving policy advisors and researchers Activity 5.2: Conduct Demonstration Workshops for the regional policy makers on DSSs

Users & Stakeholders Food System Assess Vulnerability of FS Scenarios of GEC & FS GECAFS DSS Based on UF Climate DSS Adapted FS Climate Risk DSS + Socioeconomic Assessment of Adapted FS GECAFS-DSS Approach for region or country analysis of Food Systems and GEC New FS

Planning Grant Review Comments: 1.This is primarily a policy level analysis with limited scientific contributions—no hypotheses. 2.Impressive approach to looking at the problem on multiple levels, combining crop engineering, climatology, soils, economics and other fields. 3.The research approach seems to assume that food insecurity is due to extreme weather events. This is certainly one factor, but there are other major factors, such as political instability. 4.Application seems unfamiliar with the climate risk group work and didn’t address integration with the socioeconomic side and partner institutions.

GECAFS/SANREM Partnerships Caribbean Wide: CARICOM: Sam Lawrence CIAT: Eugene Levael IICA: Sergio Supelveda; Adrian Rodriguez; Errol Berkeley CIMH: Adrian Trotman UWI: Ranjit Singh Cropper Foundation: Angela Cropper USAID: Chris Kosnik

GECAFS/SANREM Partnerships Guyana USAID Mission Winston Harlequin Dhanmattie Sohai IICA National Agricultural Research Institute Haiti USAID Mission Marc-Eddy Martin CIAT Eugene Levael Quisqueya University Regine Louis Luc D. Bretous Jamaica USAID Mission Diane Dormer Karen McDonald Gayle Jamaican Agricultural Ministry Richard Harrison