1 GNSS National implementation plans

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May Index  Purpose of the plans  Content of the plans  CBA  Main outcomes

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May Purpose of the plans To provide an instrument to countries to support them in the elaboration of a “roadmap for the implementation of EGNOS use in the civil aviation” from the state viewpoint  Development of a “generic” tool  Its elaboration for 8 countries The plan is an enabler: what has to be done, who and when, costs and benefits

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May Content of the plans (1)  State of play: –Main stakeholders/decision-makers –Status/plan of air navigation infrastructures (non-GNSS, GNSS, EGNOS) –Present use and operations –Strategy and plans –Service needs (driven by present use/operations, strategy/plans, traffic growth)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May Content of the plans (2)  Analysis of impacts: –Identification of impacts generated by EGNOS in terms of: Air transport services quality and demand, Industrial benefits, Environmental benefits, Strategic benefits –Prioritization and ranking (from 1 to 9) to evaluate the social benefits

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May Content of the plans (3)  Economical feasibility: –CBA (cost, economic benefits, social benefits) –Output (financial flows, indirect benefits split, sensitive analysis)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May Content of the plans (4)  Action plan: –Actions (what has to be done and why, who has to do and when) –Recommendations

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May SIRAJ plans (1) Development of National implementation plans for EGNOS services implementation (*):  In Civil Aviation  For 8 countries  10 years time lag (2011 – 2021) (**) (*) sub-regional elements will be considered (**)time lag decided on the basis of a trade-off to ensure robustness

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May SIRAJ plans (2) Countries: Algeria Côte d’Ivoire Gabon Jordan Mauritania Morocco Saudi Arabia Senegal

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May It is a proposed roadmap for EGNOS exploitation in Civil Aviation, in the addressed country, in the 10-years period 2011 – The GNSS Implementation Plan takes into account the particular needs of the country in the Civil Aviation domain, and the social and economical benefits that the use of EGNOS will generate. SIRAJ plans (3)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May Following a scoping out of the state of play, of navigation infrastructure needs and of the possibility to introduce EGNOS technology, the GNSS Implementation Plan elaborates the country shared policy to facilitate the EGNOS introduction and use. For this reason, its preparation required various iterations in close interaction with the country stakeholders, for reviewing, discussing and commenting it. SIRAJ plans (4)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May SIRAJ plans – Main sources 1.Info from countries (answers to questionnaire) 2.Info from METIS (MEDA countries, non-MEDA countries) 3.ACI (Airports Council International) Global Traffic Forecast SIRAJ outcomes. e.g.: –Telespazio market analysis on various secondary sources –Telespazio analysis of impacts (see slide) –Assumptions shared with EU ANSP on the basis of EU model purposely customized for the SIRAJ countries

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May SIRAJ plans – Country status in civil aviation  Main stakeholders for Civil Aviation (i.e. decision- makers)  State of play of Air Navigation infrastructure (non GNSS and GNSS): –Current status –Planned evolutions  Country strategy in Civil Aviation (i.e. available plan and regulations, Conference/Commissions, ICAO Regions and Regional Groups, Bilateral agreements of interest)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May SIRAJ plans – Service needs  Service needs: –Market size (country aviation market size, number of airport and traffic) –Use of GNSS/ GNSS strategy (i.e. operation needs, status/ plan for GNSS procedures development, strategy in relation to GNSS use) –Opportunities and issues (peculiar characteristics of the country in relation to SBAS LPV, airports not equipped with conventional navigation aid infrastructures,…)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May SIRAJ plans – Analysis of impacts Evaluation of impacts generated by EGNOS in the country  reliable estimation of social benefits EC “IMPACT ASSESSMENT GUIDELINES” (SEC(2009) 92) for the investigation of the potential effects of EGNOS service introduction Impacts prioritization and ranking (inputs from questionnaire and sub-regional elements)  estimation of social benefits

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Economical feasibility CBA Initiative: exploitation of EGNOS in the Civil Aviation domain  EGNOS SoL service  SBAS LPV application  At country level and from the state point of view  10 year period, time lag  Costs  Benefits (direct and indirect/social)  Financial flows  Key drivers (sensitivity)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Exploitation of EGNOS in the Civil Aviation domain:  EGNOS service - EGNOS SoL service  Business case: SBAS LPV application  At country level and from the state point of view Economical feasibility Value chain EGNOS Operator EGNOS SoL SP ANSPAirline Industries Research entities State Institutional/Safety-of-life market:  ASNP - Regulated entity (acting for the Public Authorities)  Airlines - final users  Industries/Research entities - Map providers, Terminal/ receivers manufacturers/ integrators, IT companies, Certification entities, Procedure designers, etc.

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Economical feasibility CBA methodology 10 year period Time lag Costs for the state:  EGNOS SoL opex  Capex of the local EGNOS monitoring infrastructure Benefits for the state:  Direct benefits: taxes  Indirect benefits (based on impact analysis and prioritization) CBA outcomes:  Yearly financial flows and NPV  Sensitivity analysis

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Economical feasibility CBA model

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Economical feasibility CBA assumptions - EGNOS costs (1) Capex (i.e. the costs for the necessary infrastructures, incl. certification) = 0 Opex (i.e. the cost for operating the EGNOS SoL service) > 0 (*), afforded by the states. It is assumed that operation costs to provide EGNOS SoL to a certain area are shared among the states included the area. This implies an agreement on cost- sharing between the states, then each state identifies a suitable origin of funds decides and/ or applies its specific charging mechanism (how to charge, who to charge). States pay for EGNOS opex starting from the year T0 of EGNOS SoL FOC

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 EGNOS opex evaluation: –METIS min/ max value for EGNOS opex for MEDA countries (Algeria, Jordan and Morocco) –For non-MEDA countries on the basis of the EGNOS usage (i.e. number of landings) compared to Morocco - states are divided into 3 categories considering their traffic compared to Morocco (less, equal, major) Economical feasibility CBA assumptions - EGNOS costs (2)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Economical feasibility CBA assumptions - EGNOS FOC EGNOS FOC T0 tentative dates just for CBA elaboration purposes: –2012, for MEDA countries (i.e. Morocco, Algeria and Jordan) in line with the METIS assumptions –2015, for African/ non-MEDA countries (i.e. Gabon, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Senegal) –2018, for Middle-East/ non- MEDA and Arabic Peninsula countries (i.e. Saudi Arabia) EGNOS adoption, 1 year after EGNOS FOC in the best case for all countries

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Capex of the local EGNOS monitoring infrastructure (1 ) capex of the EGNOS local monitoring infrastructure/ system (for independent monitoring of the signal, for interference monitoring…) Evaluation using: –Using METIS costs for MEDA countries –For non-MEDA countries on the basis of the number of airports compared to Morocco It is assumed that the capex of such monitoring infrastructure/system is afforded by the State, while the opex is afforded by the ANSP starting from the year before the introduction time

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Capex of the local EGNOS monitoring infrastructure (2) Today such infrastructures is not mandatory, nevertheless it has to be considered that, according to ICAO, each State is responsible for the Air Navigation Service provision over its Country. Additionally the ICAO SARPS standards state the any State that approves GNSS-based operations, also based on EGNOS use, should ensure the recording and retention of the corresponding relevant data. Than, it can be expected that the States will equip themselves of their local infrastructure/ system for monitoring the quality of the GPS/EGNOS service provided over the country area

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Economical feasibility CBA assumptions – Benefits (1) Direct benefits consider the economic revenues for each state directly resulting from civil aviation activities. Their estimation is done by applying to the identified tax base (the value of the foreseen investments) the relevant country tax profile

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Indirect/ social benefits are evaluated by using the shadow price methodology applied in METIS, with further elaborations, specifically tailored on civil aviation and customized for each country (to take into accounts the relevant specificities). Evaluation varies from: –number of landings –GDP –benefit importance using the impacts prioritization and ranking (air transport services quality and demand, industrial benefits, environmental benefits, strategic benefits) Economical feasibility CBA assumptions – Benefits (2)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Economical feasibility Output example – sensitivity Dependence of the economic feasibility from key parameters, to: –Take into account of the assumptions –Support the definition of actions Min/max +5 years +/- growth +/-1 %

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Action plan  Opportunities  Recommendations  Proposed actions, actors, and timing

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Algeria (1)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Algeria (2)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Côte d'Ivoire (1)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Côte d'Ivoire (2)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Gabon (1)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Gabon (2)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Jordan (1)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Jordan (2)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Mauritania (1)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Mauritania (2)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Morocco (1)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Morocco (2)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Saudi Arabia (1)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Saudi Arabia (2)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Senegal (1)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Senegal (2)

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Main outcomes – Key messages (1)  Heterogeneous state-of-play and strategies: –Different Conference/Commissions, ICAO Regions and Regional Groups –Sub-regional/ bilateral agreements for some countries (e.g. AEFMP, EMCAA, cooperations) –ICAO Regional Groups responsible for strategies for GNSS –Each State responsible for implementation

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Main outcomes – Key messages (2)  Heterogeneous service needs, in terms of: –Market needs (air traffic movements/ trends) –GNSS based operations implementation/ adoption (e.g. GNSS RNAV/RNP approaches) –Awareness/ knowledge (e.g. questionnaire feeding) –Interest –Status/ plan of implementation of ICAO Regional Groups strategy

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Main outcomes – Key messages (3)  Tool for countries and EU  Results to be evaluated under regional considerations  Robustness depends on the assumptions  Re-elaboration/review the assumptions as long as they are defined/understood: –Plan time lag –EGNOS costs/FOC –Traffic (direct benefits) –Impact/economical parameters (indirect benefits) –Airports implementation/evolution –Cost sharing/allocation

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May 2012 Main outcomes – Recommendations (1)  Consolidate EGNOS service coverage in terms of technical, economical and planning aspects, programmatic/institutional/legal framework  Only in few cases EGNOS costs have a significant impact on the CBA  The delay in adoption has a significant impact on the CBA in all cases (*) (*) Recommendation is to anticipate development of enablers to reduce the delay of adoption, including implementation of strategy

SIRAJ Workshop, Rabat, 28 May Thank you! Antonella Di Fazio