WMO FORUM: SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES Dr. George Kordzakhia WMO HEADQUARTERS, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND 8-11 APRIL 2013 THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY GEORGIA

HYSTORY AND PRESENT CONDITIONS OF NATIONAL MONITORING SYSTEM IN GEORGIA 2006

3 Geospatial resources: geography SOURCE: GeoGraphic

BRIEF HYSTORY   In May 1 4, 1844 the Tbilisi magnetic - metorological observatory was founded;   The Agency and its hydrometeorological department are heir-at-law. Therefore the Agency is the oldest organization in Georgia.

STRUCTURE OF THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY STRUCTURE OF THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT POLLUTION MONITORING DEPARTMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY DEPARTMENT OF GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS BRANCHES OF THE AGENCY ADJARA KOLCHKHETI KARTLI SAMTSKHE- JAVAKHETI KAKHETI STATIONS GAUGES LABORATORIES STATIONS GAUGES LABORATORIES STATIONS GAUGES LABORATORIES STATIONS GAUGES LABORATORIES STATIONS GAUGES LABORATORIES

FUNCTIONS OF THE AGENCY   On the territory of Georgia and Black Sea in the fields of meteorology, hydrology, operational oceanography, environmental monitoring and geodynamics carrying out observations, analysis, forecasting, research and provision with products population, governmental bodies and various sectors of economy ; Monitoring over hydro and morpho dynamic processes, permanent mapping works, identification of risk zones and forecasting of coastline development in the coastline zone of the sea; Monitoring over hydro and morpho dynamic processes, permanent mapping works, identification of risk zones and forecasting of coastline development in the coastline zone of the sea;   Issuing warnings in case of disasters of meteorological, hydrological and geodynamic origin and in occasion of high and extreme pollution of the environment ;   Fulfillment of international commitments under various conventions and bilateral and multilateral agreements in the spheres of meteorology, hydrology and environmental pollution monitoring in frames its competence. REMARK Functioning of the Agency is not possible without daily connections with the NMHSs and other similar services and international organizations (i.e. interchange of operational information, including forecasts and warnings etc. ).

SHORT HISTORY OF DEVELOPMENT OF METEOROLOGY&HYDROLOGY IN GEORGIA (1) SHORT HISTORY OF DEVELOPMENT OF METEOROLOGY&HYDROLOGY IN GEORGIA (1) 1832 Creation of episodic meteorological observations ; 1844 Magnetic-meteorological observatory was established and regular meteorological observations started ; Creation of glaciological observations ( Devdoraki); 1883 Specialized agrometeorological observations started; 1904 Actinometrical observations started; 1914 The weather service was established ; 1905 Hydrological observations started ; 1930 Hydrometeorological Service was established; 1931 Air meteorological observations started ;

SHORT HISTORY OF DEVELOPMENT OF METEOROLOGY&HYDROLOGY IN GEORGIA (2) SHORT HISTORY OF DEVELOPMENT OF METEOROLOGY&HYDROLOGY IN GEORGIA (2) 1932 Snow height field work measurements started; 1937 Upper air sounding started; 1964 Marine hydro meteorological observations started; Works on hail active influence were started; 1967 Works on hail active influence were started; Works on precipitation artificial stimulation were started; 1979 Works on precipitation artificial stimulation were started; 1988 Works on avalanches artificial descending were started.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (1) This slide represents the basic results of pilot research according to economic efficiency, of various branches of economy, of Hydrometeorological Provision (HMP) in Georgia, carried out by joint efforts of experts of National Hydrometeorological Service (NHMS) and IBRD. The aim of a pilot phase of the research is definition of direct influence of quality and early warning improvement of hydrometeorological forecasts and preventions about the dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena (HP) in the frame of economic losses.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (2) The national economy is characterized on dependence of weather condition which is defined by specific weight of the most significant sensitive branches of industry determinant gross national product (GDP), these branches are the industry (heavy, light), an agriculture, transport and construction. The percentage of GDP from industry is 28 %, from agriculture - 25 %, from transport and communication - 10 %, from constructions - 5 %. As a whole the depending on weather condition branches of economy of Georgia is 68 % of GDP.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (3) The peculiarity of a physiographic position, a development of economy and its dependence on weather conditions of Georgia define the basic risks combined with adverse conditions of weather. In the territory of Georgia the most dangerous adverse conditions of weather, caused risks of economy are: heavy shower, drought, frost, hailstone, strong wind, ice, fog, thunder-storms. All these phenomena bring significant material and human losses. In territory of Georgia within a year the number of days reach: abundant precipitation (more than 30 mm per day) - 30; hailstone - 5, thunder-storm - 50, fog - 120, strong wind - 40, frost The probability of strong droughts in steppe areas of east Georgia reach 40 % in this connection its desertification probability makes 30 %.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (4) The base of used branch investigation consists in definition of two key parameters, which are necessary for integrated estimation of economic feasibility of modernization of NHMS: (i) a share potentially preventable losses from the total losses which will be possible to avoid as a result of realization of modernization (according to the developed methodology they represent two factors - Ri·Si); (ii) a share of level of expenses for preventive (protective) actions as a result of improvement of reliability hydrometeorological information and its early warning (Δi). The influence of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena (DHP) and adverse conditions of weather (ACW) on economy cause damages both direct and indirect economic losses.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (5) Taking into account that the indirect economic losses from influence of DHP can be estimated only on the basis of meteorology-economic modeling and in this presented assessment these losses were not estimated. In this connection the share potentially preventable losses was estimated from a level of direct economic losses caused by DHP and ACW (Ri·Si for DHP) and from a level of indirect economic losses caused by ACW (Ri·Si for ACW) separately. Assessment was carried out accordingly with specially developed questionnaire which purpose was not only expert definition of the key parameters necessary for calculation of economic efficiency of modernization, but also receive the information about quality and timeliness of meteorological services given on today.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (6) The estimation of key parameters was carried out in two stages. At the first stage was lead the expert estimation of parameters on separate branches of economy. At the second stage, using an average estimation, was calculated average values of basic factors Ri·Si for DHP, Ri·Si for ACW and Δi, necessary for an integrated estimation of economic efficiency of modernization of NHMS. According to presented report of NHMS the annual direct economic losses on the country for are V DHP = 95,23 million GEL ($47,6 million), annual indirect economic losses – V ACW = 42,49 million Lari ($21,25 million). This statistics is confirmed by the economy branches experts independent estimations who participated in the present assessment.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (7) Improvement of quality and preliminary of hydrometeorological forecasts will allow to reduce the losses, caused by DHP and ACW, approximately to 15,1 % for direct and 12,9 % for indirect economic losses. The most sensitive to modernization in both cases fined out a municipal services where the losses will reduce up to 22,1 % and 19,9 % accordingly; As a result of improvement of quality and preliminary of hydrometeorological information, the users for protective actions and liquidation of negative impacts of DHP and ACW will spend on economy 12,8 % less; The Integrated results have shown, that for average losses - $28,25-47,6 and $21,25 million annual economic benefit of modernization can make 14, ,77 million Lari ($7,45 - $10,38 million) accordingly.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS AND BENEFITS OF WEATHER, CLIMATE AND WATER SERVICES (8) Assuming, that this mean annual economic benefit will be provided within 7 years after modernization, total potential benefits can achieve from 52,15 up to 72,66 million USD. It means, that economic feasibility (economic efficiency) of modernization (at cost $7 million) approximately makes 1:7,5 - 1:10,4. Another words, each dollar directed on modernization of NHMS of Georgia, can bring 7,5-10,4 USD of benefit to economy. The used methodology supposes an estimation only for the direct effect, basically expressed, in reduction of losses from the dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena and adverse conditions of weather. The given assessment does not consist the additional social and economic effect connected with Private sector of economic. In this connection, the received results is possible to consider as “estimation from below”; The real economic benefit can be much more significant.

Thank you for your Attention!