European MRO Conference, Berlin, © 1 Low Cost Carrier MRO Aviation Week‘s MRO Wolfgang Kurth 19. October 2005
European MRO Conference, Berlin, © 2 LCC Market Share in Europe LCCs and the Future of the Business Model Drivers of the Business Model LCCs and MROs Conclusion Agenda
European MRO Conference, Berlin, © 3 Business Environment VOLUME/GDP TIME Africa Asia Middle East Latin America PIONEER STAGE TRANSITIONRAPID GROWTH STAGE TRANSITION U.S. and Europe MATURE STAGE GDP Volume
European MRO Conference, Berlin, © 4 For what reason would you fly more often? 11% 8% 41% 8% 6% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% upgradesschedulesafety ground low faresmore FFP´s safety board others Source: IATA Online Survey 2003 Low Fares Trigger Demand
European MRO Conference, Berlin, © 5 Pessimistic Optimistic Number of passengers of Ryanair & easyJet at basis of announced capacities 19% 15% 30% Prediction for the European Low Cost Market 2001E–2009F Market potential of the German Low Cost Segment 2001E–2009F 1 Low case: Number of no-frills journeys in Europe reach current UK / Ireland level (0.25 trips / capita) over 8 years (number of passengers = 72MM) 2 High case: Number of no-frills journeys in Europe reach the same level as currently in the U.S. (0.5 trips / capita) over 8 years (number of passengers = 195MM) Source: Analyst Reports, Monitor Analysis Estimation formed by the use of US market share & travel frequency to the German population PAX (m) Market potential for European LCCs
European MRO Conference, Berlin, © 6 Growth Rates and Market Shares Europe: annual growth rate p.a. for LCCs, passenger in mio,
European MRO Conference, Berlin, © 7 Market Share of European LCCs
European MRO Conference, Berlin, © 8 LCC Market Shares by Country
European MRO Conference, Berlin, © 9 Caption: Ryanair easyjet Volareweb bmi Baby Hapag-Lloyd Express Germanwings Sterling Skyeurope jet2 LCC routes 2001