1. Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey Q4 2013

2. WELCOME Phil Cusack President

3. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY Dr John Ashcroft Chief Economist

4. COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR

5. EMPLOYMENT TRACKER

6. INFLATION TRACKER

7. UK SALES

8. UK SALES (PRODUCTION)

9. UK ORDERS

10. EXPORT SALES

11. EXPORT ORDERS

12. EMPLOYMENT IN MANUFACTURING

13. EMPLOYMENT IN SERVICES

14. MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE

15. SERVICES CONFIDENCE

16. INVESTMENT IN PLANT & MACHINERY

17. INTENTIONS TO INCREASE PRICES

18. COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR

19. International Perspectives 2014 January 2014

21. GDP %20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 GDP %20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Unemployment latest (Nov) 26.9%

22. GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4

23. GDP %20132014 Italy-1.80.4 GDP %20132014 Italy-1.80.4 GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Italy-1.8 0.4 Unemployment latest (Nov) 12.7%

24. GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Italy-1.8 0.4

25. GDP %20132014 Portugal-1.80.4 Spain-0.30.6 GDP %20132014 Portugal-1.80.4 Spain-0.30.6 GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Italy-1.8 0.4 Spain-0.3 0.4 Portugal-1.8 0.4 Unemployment latest (Nov)Spain26.7% Portugal15.5%

26. GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Italy-1.8 0.4 Spain-0.3 0.4 Portugal-1.8 0.4

27. GDP %20132014 Ireland-0.11.6 GDP %20132014 Ireland-0.11.6 GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Italy-1.8 0.4 Spain-0.3 0.4 Portugal-1.8 0.4 Ireland-0.1 1.6 Unemployment latest (Nov) 12.3%

28. GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Italy-1.8 0.4 Spain-0.3 0.4 Portugal-1.8 0.4 Ireland-0.1 1.6

29. GDP %20132014 France0.20.8 GDP %20132014 France0.20.8 GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Italy-1.8 0.4 Spain-0.3 0.4 Portugal-1.8 0.4 Ireland-0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8 Unemployment latest (Nov) 10.8%

30. GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Italy-1.8 0.4 Spain-0.3 0.4 Portugal-1.8 0.4 Ireland-0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8

31. GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Italy-1.8 0.4 Spain-0.3 0.4 Portugal-1.8 0.4 Ireland-0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8 Germany 0.5 1.8 GDP %20132014 Germany0.51.8 GDP %20132014 Germany0.51.8 Unemployment latest (Nov) 5.2%

32. GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Italy-1.8 0.4 Spain-0.3 0.4 Portugal-1.8 0.4 Ireland-0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8 Germany 0.5 1.8

33. GDP %20132014 Belgium 0.10.9 Holland-1.10.4 GDP %20132014 Belgium 0.10.9 Holland-1.10.4 GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Italy-1.8 0.4 Spain-0.3 0.4 Portugal-1.8 0.4 Ireland-0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8 Germany 0.5 1.8 Belgium 0.1 0.9 Holland-1.1 0.4 Unemployment latest (Nov) Belgium8.4% Holland6.9%

34. GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Italy-1.8 0.4 Spain-0.3 0.4 Portugal-1.8 0.4 Ireland-0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8 Germany 0.5 1.8 Belgium 0.1 0.9 Holland-1.1 0.4

35. GDP20132014 Greece-3.7-0.4 Italy-1.8 0.4 Spain-0.3 0.4 Portugal-1.8 0.4 Ireland-0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8 Germany 0.5 1.8 Belgium 0.1 0.9 Holland-1.1 0.4 U rate latest (Nov) Denmark6.9% Sweden8.0% Norway3.3% Finland8.4% U rate latest (Nov) Denmark6.9% Sweden8.0% Norway3.3% Finland8.4% GDP %20132014 Denmark 0.41.4 Sweden 0.92.5 Norway 1.92.2 Finland-0.91.0 GDP %20132014 Denmark 0.41.4 Sweden 0.92.5 Norway 1.92.2 Finland-0.91.0

36. GDP 2013 2014 Euro Zone -0.4 1.0 EU 0.0 1.3 Europe W 0.0 1.3

37. GDP20132014 Euro Zone-0.41.0 EU 0.01.3 Europe W 0.01.3

38. GDP20132014 Euro Zone-0.41.0 EU 0.01.3 Europe W 0.01.3 Unemployment Latest Euro Zone 12.1% EU28 10.9%

39. GDP20132014 Euro Zone-0.41.0 EU 0.01.3 Europe W 0.01.3 Unemployment Latest Euro Zone 12.1% EU28 10.9% Youth unemployment

40. GDP20132014 Euro Zone-0.41.0 EU 0.01.3 Europe W 0.01.3 Unemployment Latest Euro Zone 12.1% EU28 10.9% Youth unemploment EU Zone 24.2% Spain 57.7% Portugal 54.8% Croatia 49.7%

41. North America 2013 2.0% 2014 2.5% Asia Pacific 2013 4.6% 2014 4.7% Western Europe 2013 0.0% 2014 1.3% Eastern Europe 2013 1.9% 2014 2.8% Latin America 2013 2.6% 2014 2.9% The World in 2014 MENSA 2013 3.7% 2014 4.1% MENSA Egypt Israel Saudi Arabia Nigeria S Africa United Kingdom 2013 2.0% 2014 2.5% 4.5% 7.5% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 6.0% 6.9% 2.5% MINT Mexico2.9% Indonesia6.0% Nigeria6.9% Turkey4.5% BRIC Brazil2.8% Russia2.5% India4.5% China7.5%

42. North America 15% Asia Pacific 15% Western Europe 50% Eastern Europe 6% Latin America 1% The World in 2014 - UK Direction of Trade Stats MENSA 7% Based on 2012 ONS data MINT 2% BRIC 8%

43. International Perspectives 2014 January 2014

44. Ten Predictions for 2014 January 2014

45. Ten Predictions for 2014

46. World trade growth is expected to recover from an average 2.8% in 2013 to a trend rate of growth of around 5% over the next two years. World Trade Growth

47. UK GDP Growth UK GDP growth for 2013 will be revised up to 2% in the year. We expect growth of 2.5% in 2014 rising to 2.7% in the following year.

48. UK Inflation CPI basis

49. Unemployment Claimant Count

50. Unemployment - LFS Rate

51. Average Earnings

52. International Trade

54. Government Borrowing

55. Sterling Exchange Rates

56. Gilt Yields

57. Base Rates

58. QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION

59. ACTION FOR BUSINESS Chris Fletcher Director of Policy & Communications

60. 2014 Overview Events programme – QES, QEF, A4B Forums, Council Increase and develop the quality of business thought leadership, member opinion and engagement Planned activity throughout 2014

61. 2014 – Current action Late payment consultation – short survey for feedback on government consultation Zero Hours Contracts – government consultation

62. 2014 – Major themes and issues Cost of doing business - minimum wage vs living wage Transport – rail, road, aviation Energy Business Bank Trade Elections and Referendums

63. 2014 – Key Dates Surveys - QES, March, June, September, November -Trade Survey, Feb - Labour Market, May - Business Environment, October

64. 2014 – Key Dates Elections and Referendums -European Elections, May - Scottish Referendum, September - General Election, May 2015

65. 2014 – Key Dates Events - 42 A4B events in 10 areas - Sector events and seminars, Business leaders, Women in Business - Great Manchester Business Conference 21 st March - Annual Dinner, 15 th May - QES Briefings - Quarterly Economic Forecasts - Policy & Campaign Committee, Chamber Council

66. 2014 – Online www.gmchamber.co.uk www.gmchambereconomics.com

67. CLOSING REMARKS Phil Cusack President

68. THANK YOU