Data Palooza Workshop May 9, 2013 Rabinder Bains, FHWA – Office of Policy and Government Affairs

HERS Capabilities Projects overall conditions & performance of nation’s highways at alternative potential levels of investment. Estimates investment needs relative to user- specified targets - e.g. average speed, minimum BCR (benefit-cost ratio) Bridge replacement is estimated using NBIAS model HERS could be used to develop fiscally constrained performance targets or estimate investment levels to reach desired targets 2

HERS Evolution Developed in the early 1990s as replacement for Highway Performance Monitoring System Analytical Process Used to run scenarios for the Condition and Performance Report to Congress and budget analysis Evaluates investments using engineering & economic (benefit-cost) criteria HERS-ST is the model’s state-level version, developed in early 2000s 3

HPMS Database Limited to highways eligible for Federal aid—arterials, urban collectors, and rural major collectors Local roads & rural minor collectors not included because generally ineligible for Federal aid Approximately 10% of the Federal-aid highways are sampled Detailed data on sample of highway sections used in HERS 4

Evaluated Improvements Pavement preservation Rehabilitation Reconstruction Resurfacing, etc. Capacity expansion Adding lanes Major widening New highway construction 5

Operational improvements Ramp metering, variable speed limits, incident management systems, upgraded traffic signals, etc. HERS estimates incidence and impacts of current and future deployments but does not subject these deployments to BCA. 6

Non-modeled improvements Safety improvements Rumble strips Safety edges Median treatments Signalized intersection improvements Guardrails, etc. Bridge Replacement, excluding expansion Other improvements –e.g. landscaping 7

HERS Benefit-Cost Analysis Monetizes benefits from reductions in: Travel time Vehicle operating costs Crashes Emissions Highway maintenance costs 8

9 HERS Analytical Steps Traffic Forecast Traffic Forecast Simulate Future Conditions and Performance Simulate Future Conditions and Performance Identify Deficiencies Identify Deficiencies Identify Potential Section Improvements Identify Potential Section Improvements Select System Improvements Select System Improvements Current Conditions Current Conditions

Current Condition & Traffic Forecast Over 119,000 Highway Segments in HPMS Pavement Geometry Traffic Volume Capacity Future Travel Demand Base Year Specified Future Year Adjusted by Travel Demand Elasticity

Simulate Future Conditions and Performance Pavement and Capacity Pavement Deterioration Based on AASHTO Procedure Capacity Calculations Based on TRB’s Highway Capacity Manual Pavement condition and capacity affect user travel costs, which feed into future traffic forecast through the travel demand elasticity

Identify Deficiencies Section Evaluation Pavement Condition - good, acceptable, poor Surface Type – asphalt, concrete, unpaved Volume/Capacity, Lane Width Right Shoulder Width, Shoulder Type Horizontal Alignment, Vertical Alignment Deficiency Levels Trigger Levels for HERS to Consider Improvements Seriously Deficient Level Unacceptable Levels (not used by FHWA)

Identify Potential Section Improvements Highway Improvements Pavement None, Resurface or reconstruct Widening None, widen shoulder, widen lanes, add lanes Alignment No Change, Improve Curves, Improve Grades, Improve Grades & Curves

Identify Potential Section Improvements Improvement Evaluation Estimate Reductions in Road User Costs Travel time Vehicle operating costs Safety Estimate Reductions in Highway Agency Costs Maintenance costs Residual value Estimate Reductions in Societal Costs Emissions Estimate Improvement Costs Estimate a benefit cost ratio (ratio of user, agency, and societal costs to improvement costs)

SELECTING SYSTEM IMPROVEMENTS Minimum BCR Runs Implements All Potential Improvements With BCR Above Minimum Target Level, use BCR=1.5 in C&P Report Scenario Funding or Performance Constrained Runs Ranks Potential Section Improvements by BCR Implements Improvements with Highest BCR’s Until Funding or Performance Target is Reached.

HERS Outputs Projected 2028 Pavement Ride Quality Indicators on Federal-Aid Highways Compared With 2008, for Different Possible Funding Levels

HERS Output Projected 2028 Highway Operational Performance Indicators on Federal- Aid Highways Compared With 2008, for Different Possible Funding Levels

HERS Output Projected Changes in 2028 Highway Travel Delay on Federal-Aid Highways Compared With 2008, for Different Possible Funding Levels

Summary HERS model allows for trade-off between improvements in infrastructure condition, safety and operational improvements using benefit cost analysis HERS results can provide a benchmark against which to assess the performance targets under consideration While HERS model is applicable for national level highway program, HERS-ST could be used for State level analysis HERS is updated continually to incorporate new research findings and policy initiatives