Future of Iranian nuclear program Vladimir Orlov President PIR Center.

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Presentation transcript:

Future of Iranian nuclear program Vladimir Orlov President PIR Center

June 14, 2013 Presidential elections in Iran Where are we at the moment? September 5, 2013 Iranian Foreign Ministry is put in charge of nuclear negotiations November 20 – 24, 2013 Geneva talks «Joint Plan of Action» January 12, 2014 Clarification of technical issues January 20, 2014 Interim agreement comes into force

Iranian nuclear program: what Iran needs? Internal political stability State security and minimization of the risk of military conflicts Technological progress and self-sufficiency Expansion, becoming regional superpower and leader of all of the Muslim population in the Middle East

Iranian Nuclear Program Arak

March 16-17, 2013 Strategic Studies Network task force Draft agreement on the Iranian nuclear program Phased reciprocal sequencing chart

1 st scenario: «» 1 st scenario: «Moving forward» : Iran and P5 +1 reach the comprehensive agreement Multilateral format: Iran and P5 +1 reach the comprehensive agreement : Confidence building measures with the Gulf states and across the Middle East Regional format: Confidence building measures with the Gulf states and across the Middle East : Second reactor of the Bushehr NPP, military-technical cooperation, Vladimir Putin visits Tehran Russia-Iran: Second reactor of the Bushehr NPP, military-technical cooperation, Vladimir Putin visits Tehran

2 nd scenario: « » 2 nd scenario: «Moving backward» : Iran disrupts the negotiations with P5+1 Multilateral format: Iran disrupts the negotiations with P5+1 : Destabilization of the situation in the Gulf and across the Middle East. Escalating confrontation between Iran and its neighbors Regional format: Destabilization of the situation in the Gulf and across the Middle East. Escalating confrontation between Iran and its neighbors : Moscow is studying the options for joining new international sanctions Russia-Iran: Moscow is studying the options for joining new international sanctions

3 rd scenario : « » 3 rd scenario : «Muddling through» : Iran and P5 +1 reach the comprehensive agreement but it remains unstable, Western powers blame Iran for noncompliance Multilateral format: Iran and P5 +1 reach the comprehensive agreement but it remains unstable, Western powers blame Iran for noncompliance : Tensions in the Gulf and across the Middle East Regional format: Tensions in the Gulf and across the Middle East : Second reactor of the Bushehr NPP, military-technical cooperation, Vladimir Putin visits Tehran Russia-Iran: Second reactor of the Bushehr NPP, military-technical cooperation, Vladimir Putin visits Tehran

Heavy water reactor in Arak What should we be following? Levels of uranium enrichment Missile program Additional protocol to the IAEA subsidiary agreement