1 Policy Analysis for RISPO II National Workshop XXXXX 2006.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Policy Analysis for RISPO II National Workshop XXXXX 2006

2 Purpose of Policy Analysis To come up with appropriate policy options based on assessment of the impact of economic integration in the Region.

3 Policy Review aimed at analyzing the following three elements: 1)The current state and trends of country and the region as a whole in terms of-  Environmental conditions  Economic and social situation  Past and current trends of economic integration

4 Policy Review (cont.) 2) Likely impacts of future economic integration (under different scenarios) on the region in terms of economic, environmental and social impacts 3) Formulation of policy packages, taking into account the capacities of the target countries to implement such policies as well as the potential impacts of those policies.

5 Policy Review and Priority Sector /Issue Selection 1) Current state and trends of country and the region:  Policy review (economic review, environmental policy review)  Policies/ institutions used till date and their effectiveness 2)Selection of priority sectors (agriculture, forestry, fisheries, industry) for the country 3)Selection of priority issues within the sectors (agriculture- use of pesticides, forestry- production forestry, fisheries- water pollution, industry-automobile industry) for the country  Based on Policy review (and the GTAP modeling)

6 Scenario Building 3 scenarios will be considered in this study (weak, medium and strong)  Based on the policy review  Causal Chain analysis  Sustainability Environmental Assessment  GTAP analysis

7 Environmental impact assessment of economic Integration Identification of significant impacts (Social, economic and environmental) by economic integration (and the GTAP modeling)

8 Policy packages Formulation of target oriented policy package to address the impacts under the 3 degrees of contextual scenarios  Based on policy review  Preliminary assessment of institutional capacity

9 Impact assessment of Policy Packages 1) Institutional assessment  social capacity assessment 2) Policy Impact assessment  Sustainability Environmental Assessment  Multi-criteria analysis  Cost-benefit analysis

10 Formulation of strategic environmental policy option (s) 1) Development of strategic environmental policy option  Based on policy review  Assessment of institutional capacity  Strategic Environmental Assessment  Results of GTAP simulation

11 Diagrammatic representation of Policy Analysis

12 Causal chain analysis Given the complex nature of the problems, understanding their root causes is essential to develop effective solutions. The causal chain analysis will try to identify the cause and effect relationship between economic integration and the economy, environment and social aspects (poverty). How these three components will change based on the level of economic integration.

13 Strategic Environmental Assessment SEA is a process to ensure that significant environmental effects arising from policies, plans and programs are identified, assessed, mitigated, communicated to decision-makers, monitored and that opportunities for public involvement are provided. In this study an assessment of the environmental, economic and social consequences of economic integration will be assessed.

14 Social Capacity Assessment The social capacity assessment will be conducted to assess whether the institutional capacity is present to implement the suggested policy packages.

15 Multi criteria analysis (MCA) Is used to solve complex problems where the choices have to be weighed against one another to decide which is more appropriate in the given situation. The MCA will be used to evaluate which policy package is most suitable for the country based on the current situation (social, economic and environmental) of the country.

16 Cost benefit Analysis Cost-benefit analysis will be conducted in order to assess which are the most appropriate policy package for the country.

17 Further Steps and Major Outcomes FY 2005 (Until March 2006)  Completion of the country report  Selection of priority sectors/ issues based on policy review and country workshops  Formulation of conceptual Scenarios FY2006 (April March 2007)  To undertake an assessment of the potential economic, environmental and social impacts of economic integration under three scenarios  To formulate target-based policy packages for enhancing/mitigating the impacts of economic integration

18 Thank you for your attention!