We Don’t Want the Looneys Taking Over* Or Why My Group Should Rule the World *Radiohead

Affluence Environmental Impact Kuznets Curve Plus

The “Known” Projections of human drivers I = P α A β T γ O δ P: following are global averages. Each has an important spatial heterogeneity component. 1. Population will grow to about 7 billion by Increasing urbanization and migration to the coasts 3.Greater effort from artisanal fisheries on near shore areas 4.Tourism will increase 4.4% annually 5.Commercial fishing effort will increase 6.Total food fish production will increase to mmt 7.Aquaculture production will increase 2.8% yr -1

The “Known” Projections of human drivers I = PATO Affluence: 1.Fishing effort in near shore recreational fisheries will increase 2.Per capita income and energy consumption rate will increase 3.Demand for marine resources will increase: fishing, marine tourism

The “Known” Projections of human drivers I = PATO Technology, Organization/Institutions: 1.The lack of well defined property rights: - exacerbates the impact of affluence, population, technology on the marine resource base - creates additional pressure under free trade and globalization 2. International cooperation will increase 3. Knowledge can be transmitted more rapidly and extensively

The “Known” Projections of impacts on biodiversity 1.Coastal habitat destruction will increase 2.Recoverable protein will decline, associated decline in energetic efficiency of fishing 3.Marine extinctions will increase: ecological, economic, total 4.Ecosystem shifts will increase, e.g., trophic cascades 5.Land based pollution will have a disproportionate impact on coastal marine biodiversity 6.Areas of highest biodiversity coincide with areas of strong drivers (population density, fish demand and fishing effort)

The Unknown: drivers 1.Limits to maximum yield from marine aquaculture 2.How will an increase in aquaculture affect pressure on wild stocks? 3.Will developing countries make similar mistakes as Industrial Revolution, or will there be leapfrogging of technology? 4.How will the geopolitical balance of power shift (China and India) and what are the implications for biodiversity? 5.What technology fixes will become available? 6.Where tourism will increase and impacts on coasts/oceans (ecotourism, cruiseships)? 7.What will be the size of wealth transfers between countries? 8.Patterns of migration (internal and international) patterns

The Unknown: impacts on biodiv 1.How many extinctions and where? 2.What is global footprint of urban vs rural, wild fish vs aquaculture 3.Indirect interactions between trophic levels and species 4.Feedback loop: what is impact of increasing wealth on biodiversity ? 5.Impact of changes in biodiversity on levels of inclusive wealth on a country by country basis 6.Impact on genetic diversity: degrees of endemism, importance of subpopulations on resiliency 7.Resiliency of marine systems to anthropogenic perturbations – time for recovery, necessary conditions for recovery 8.Failure to understand complex interactions and to anticipate all changes 9.How to trigger practical actions that will enhance resilience in the face of threats at all scales (global to local) 10.Relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem services (genetic, species, and ecosystem levels)

The Unknowable, and the significance of not knowing Drivers: 1. Nonlinearities such as peace and security 2. Synergies between drivers Impacts: 1. Nonlinearities and ecological surprises from sudden shifts - how prevalent, what impacts? 2. What are the best and worst case scenarios (catastrophes)?

Gaps in knowledge: what do we need to know and why 1.Relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem services (genetic, species, and ecosystem levels) – WHY DOES BIODIVERSITY MATTER? 2.Potential maximum yield from marine aquaculture including technological gains – CAN’T WE JUST FARM THE SEA LIKE WE FARM THE LAND? 3.Resiliency of marine systems to anthropogenic perturbations – time for recovery, necessary conditions for recovery – CAN WE REVERSE THE DAMAGE? 4.How to trigger practical actions that will enhance resilience in the face of threats at all scales (global to local) – HOW CAN WE TRIGGER THE CHANGES? 5.How will an increases in both marine and freshwater aquaculture affect pressure on wild stocks – WILL AQUACULTURE PUT MORE PRESSURE ON THE SEA? 6.What will be the size of wealth transfers between countries? ARE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES UNWITTINGLY SUBSIDIZING THE OVEREXPLOITATION OF THEIR MARINE BIODIVERSITY? 7.Patterns of migration (internal and international) patterns IS MIGRATION CHANGING THE USE AND STEWARDSHIP OF MARINE BIODIVERSITY?

Gaps in knowledge: what do we need to know and why 8.What is global footprint of urban vs rural, wild fish vs aquaculture 9.Feedback loop: what is impact of increasing wealth on biodiversity ? HOW DO CONSUMPTION PATTERNS CHANGE WITH PER CAPITA INCOME? 10.Impact of changes in biodiversity on levels of inclusive wealth on a country by country basis HOW MUCH DOES MARINE BIODIVERSITY LOSS REDUCE THE NAUTRAL CAPITAL OF A COUNTRY? 11.Impact on genetic diversity: degrees of endemism, importance of subpopulations on resiliency HOW DO LOSSES OF GENETIC STRAINS WEAKEN A SPECIES CHANCES OF SURVIVAL? 12.Failure to understand complex interactions and to anticipate all changes WHAT IF OUR BASIC UNDERSTANDING OF HOW OCEAN LIFE WORKS IS WRONG, E.G. FAILURE TO UNDERSTAND HOW THE MICROBES FUNCTION IN TROPHIC SYSTEMS

Is it possible to reverse the trajectory of degradation? China’s population growth policies