The Clarus Use Case 1 Evaluation Evaluation Plans and Data Collection

Presentation Overview Evaluation Objectives Meridian WRS Meridian PPAES Mixon-Hill ARW Mixon-Hill Road Temperature Next Steps

Evaluation Objectives Assess the impact of Clarus data on forecasts – Focus on surface conditions for met forecasts – Focus on key variables – Focus on times when weather conditions are changing

Approach – Meridian WRS Other Data LAPS Data Assimilation Clarus Data WRS-ARW Model Forecast Users Use Case 1Use Cases 2 - 5

Approach – Meridian WRS Other Data LAPS Data Assimilation Clarus Data WRS-ARW Model Forecast Users Use Case 1Use Cases LAPS Archive WRS Archive MADIS Archive Since 3/20/2010Since 4/23/2010

Approach – Meridian WRS LAPS Comparison Impact of Clarus on initial conditions Frequency of Clarus impact Identification of times when impact exists Identification of area where impacts exist WRS Comparison Impact of Clarus on forecasts Decay rate of impact WRS-MADIS Comparison Impact of Clarus on forecasts

Approach – Meridian PPAES Radar Data Comparison MADIS Data PPAES Model Precipitation Forecast Withheld Data Archive Since 12/30/2009

Approach – Meridian PPAES Comparison Impact of surface observations and PPAES at improving estimation of surface precipitation

Approach – Mixon-Hill Test CaseEvent DatesData Range Heavy Rains6/6-7/20085/27/2008 – 6/8/2008 Hurricane Ike9/12-15/20089/2-16/2008 Squall Lines5/14-16/20095/4-15/2009 Cold1/15/20091/5-16/2009 Warm7/20/20087/10-21/2008

Approach – Mixon-Hill ARW Other Data Data Assimilation Clarus Data ARW Model Forecast Users ARW Archive For each event MADIS Archive

Approach – Mixon-Hill ARW Other Data Data Assimilation Clarus Data ARW Model Forecast Users Test CaseEvent DatesData Range Heavy Rains6/6-7/20085/27/2008 – 6/8/2008 Hurricane Ike9/12-15/20089/2-16/2008 Squall Lines5/14-16/20095/4-15/2009 Cold1/15/20091/5-16/2009 Warm7/20/20087/10-21/2008

Approach – Mixon-Hill ARW ARW Comparison Impact of Clarus on forecasts Decay rate of impact Identification of times when impact exists Identification of area where impacts exist WRS-MADIS Comparison Impact of Clarus on forecasts

Approach – Mixon-Hill Road T Clarus Data METRo Model Data Initial Profile METRo Forecast Integrator Weather Forecast Road T Forecast Forecast Archive For each event Road T Archive For each event

Approach – Mixon-Hill Road T Clarus / non- Clarus Comparison Impact of Clarus on forecasts Identification of times when impact exists Identification of area where impacts exist Comparison to Observed Accuracy of Clarus & non-Clarus forecasts

Next Steps Continue to archive Meridian data Begin exploratory analyses