1. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Marine Pollution Monitoring and Prediction Bruce Hackett, met.no Eric Comerma, Applied Science Assoc. Pierre Daniel, Météo-France Hitoshi Ichikawa, Japan Met. Agency

2. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Outline What is the marine pollution problem? –Focus → marine oil pollution What use are GODAE products? Some examples from oil spill forecasting Future perspectives Aim: Demonstrate the use and benefits of using GODAE ocean data

3. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France What is the marine pollution problem? A wide range of pollutants in the marine environment Main impacts are: - harm to life, property and commerce - environmental degradation Chocolate mousse à la Prestige – an emulsion Marine oil pollution is a good paradigm for pollution monitoring and prediction: –Indisputably human-caused –Catastrophic events (spectacular) –… and long-term dosages (insidious) –Can be ugly, deadly, illegal and costly –Often transnational –Well-established preparedness; national and international services

4. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France What’s the role of GODAE? (1) We need monitoring and prediction for: 1.emergency response to spill events 2.impact assessment, both for specific events and for scenarios Both need a good description of the metocean conditions –Weather, sea-state, ocean circulation –Observations, hindcast, nowcast and forecast Heavy seas during Statfjord A spill, Dec 2007

5. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France What’s the role of GODAE? (2) GODAE is important since: GODAE systems are providers of observations and ocean circulation forecasts. GODAE can also provide archival data for past events and statistical studies.

6. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France What’s the role of GODAE? (3) The simple view of emergency forecast systems Drift model Initial and forcing data Output data User interface GODAE!

7. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Emergency response services Critical constraints Emergency oil spill response services depend on quick and reliable access to drift prognoses –response time <30 min –24/7/365 availability Critical component for drift forecasting is real-time access to accurate prognostic forcing data: –NWP models: wind, air temp –Wave models: Hs, Stokes drift –Ocean models: currents, temp and salinity  Access & Accuracy: main challenges to operational ocean forecasting!

8. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE data What use are they to oil spill forecasting? “Problem” –GODAE provides data at global to basin scales –Oil spill events are typically near-coastal –Oil spill services are national, with local data sources Answer: Use GODAE data to help improve the prediction service by –providing boundary conditions for nesting local models –providing for direct forcing (alternatives, backup, ensembles) –extending the spatial and temporal reach of services Examples follow

9. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France ASA-SA as a commercial middle-user: –providing MetOcean data downstream services –facilitator, aggregating added value into the data stream, providing dedicated forecasting services –to understand end-client needs, to deal with constraints and data availability limitations –bridging the gap between global data providers (GODAE) and local, very specific user needs (harbour, offshore platforms, etc.) GODAE & oil spill forecasting – South America ASA-SA

10. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE & oil spill forecasting – South America ASA-SA ASA-SA ocean and oil spill forecasting system for Petrobras, based on nesting in global ocean data products

11. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE & oil spill forecasting – South America ASA-SA Aggregation to cover data requirements Global Product Coastal Product Aggregated Product Regional Product Surface Radar SLDMB’s Global NCOM and ADCIRC via EDS Aggregation Service Aggregatio n of short and long range CODAR

12. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE & oil spill forecasting – South America ASA-SA buoy validation

13. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE & oil spill forecasting – South America ASA-SA buoy validation

14. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE and oil spill forecasting – West Pacific JMA forecasting service Information for Japan Coast Guard - distribution of spilled oil Information for Japan Coast Guard - distribution of spilled oil Surface wind direction / speed Wave condition significant wave height predominant wave period predominant wave direction Land / Sea distribution Current & SST Ocean data assimilation model (COMPASS-K MOVE) Transport by wind Stokes drift Advection by current Diffusion Evaporation Emulsification Initial step Results Data input Time integral Numerical weather model Global Spectral Model(GSM) Numerical wave model Global Wave Model (GWM) Coastal Wave Model (CWM) Oil Spill Prediction Model Initial condition time / location of a incident Spilled oil amount / type Initial condition time / location of a incident Spilled oil amount / type Calculation of positions of the pollution source Since Sep. 2008 Grid resolution : 2 - 30 km Time step : 1 minute Max. calculation time : 192 hour

15. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE and oil spill forecasting – West Pacific JMA forecasting service Information for Japan Coast Guard - distribution of spilled oil Information for Japan Coast Guard - distribution of spilled oil Surface wind direction / speed Wave condition significant wave height predominant wave period predominant wave direction Land / Sea distribution Current & SST Ocean data assimilation model (COMPASS-K MOVE) Transport by wind Stokes drift Advection by current Diffusion Evaporation Emulsification Initial step Results Data input Time integral Numerical weather model Global Spectral Model(GSM) Numerical wave model Global Wave Model (GWM) Coastal Wave Model (CWM) Oil Spill Prediction Model Initial condition time / location of a incident Spilled oil amount / type Initial condition time / location of a incident Spilled oil amount / type Calculation of positions of the pollution source Since Sep. 2008 Grid resolution : 2 - 30 km Time step : 1 minute Max. calculation time : 192 hour MOVE ocean model: –A GODAE contribution –Development aided by GODAE collaboration –Direct forcing and nesting

16. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE and oil spill forecasting – West Pacific JMA ocean forecast model (GODAE) COMPASS-KMOVE Kuroshio route Tokai region Tocharian strait

17. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE and oil spill forecasting – West Pacific JMA oil drift validation Standard : drifting buoy for oil spill tracking radius : 20 cm thickness : 5 cm weight : 4 kg material : expanded polyester 1999 Jan. 1999 Nov. 2001 Feb. 2001 Nov. 2002 Feb.

18. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE and oil spill forecasting – West Pacific JMA oil drift validation Case of East China Sea in November, 2001 : : simulation with COMPASS-K : simulation with MOVE-WNP : oil pursuit buoy

19. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France MOTHY Observations Cedre, MRCC, PREMAR Atmospheric models (ALADIN, ARPEGE, IFS) Tide Ocean models (MERCATOR, MFS) Forecasts Images, GIS, Google Earth Internet, email, fax Bathymetry GODAE and oil spill forecasting – Europe Météo-France forecasting service Schematic of Météo-France general framework with access to local and GODAE prognostic ocean data sets.

20. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE and oil spill forecasting – Europe Meteo-France – Prestige simulations Prestige case snapshot 2002-12-13 12 UTC. Prestige trajectory = black line MOTHY (wind only) = blue MOTHY+Mercator = green MOTHY+FOAM = red. Observed slicks = black triangles Positive impact of adding GODAE current data (Mercator and FOAM) in waters where the large-scale circulation has a significant impact. However, there are large differences between the current data sets (Mercator and FOAM). First use of GODAE / Mersea data was most encouraging

21. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE and oil spill forecasting – Europe Meteo-France, met.no, UCY – Mersea simulations 6 PTR buoys Western Mediterranean sea 3 Argosphere buoys Eastern Mediterranean sea

22. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE and oil spill forecasting – Europe Meteo-France, met.no – Mersea simulations Findings: -Often large differences in the predicted current fields -Drifter trajectories are better reproduced in stable and well marked circulation (left) -Large discrepancies between the predicted currents in the open ocean reflects the fact that the current field is dominated by unstable mesoscale dynamics (right) -The most accurate results are obtained when applying currents from a local, fine-scale ocean model nested in basin-scale data.

23. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE and oil spill forecasting – Europe Meteo-France, met.no – Mersea simulations MFS 1/16thMercator MED 1/15th Mercator Global 1/4th All fields are daily means for 2007-09-24 00 UTC

24. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE & oil spill forecasting – Future perspectives Data access and accuracy Access to ocean data –Immensely improved during GODAE lifetime! –Global GODAE models → global coverage for any oil spill model. –Demonstrated in projects (e.g. Mersea) and by individual middle users (e.g. ASA) … –… still need to improve standards for access and products –Any data policy hindrances remaining?

25. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Accuracy of ocean data –Still the main source of oil spill forecast error. –GODAE assimilation systems continue to improve forecast accuracy in the blue ocean (e.g., Kuroshio)… –… but still gross errors in some eddy-rich areas. –Need more detailed currents in coastal and shelf seas → Higher resolution models Nesting is preferable to direct use Tides must be included at some stage Improved forcing from atmosphere (high-resolution, high freq data) Assimilation of current data (HF radar, drifters) –Need measures of accuracy to propagate into oil spill forecast results! GODAE & oil spill forecasting – Future perspectives Data access and accuracy

26. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE & oil spill forecasting – Future perspectives Addressing accuracy Using ensembles to address accuracy / confidence issues: Single-model – perturbations on one of the models (oil drift and/or forcing) costly! Multi-model – aggregating several independent oil spill forecasts Multi-forcing – same oil spill model, different forcing data (enabled by GODAE!) A combination of the above Requires good analysis and/or interpretation methods

27. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France End

28. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Comparison between MOVE-WNP and COMPASS-K

29. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France

30. GODAE & oil spill forecasting – South America ASA Environmental Data System Environmental Data Store Professional ClientThin/Web Client Internet Web Services Web Service XML Request NetCDF Data Catalog Server Modelling Engine Spatial / Temporal Aggregation Modelling Services (Oil, SAR) Resources Monitoring OGC WMS/WxS EDS Winds Currents Drifters Weather Remote Sources (public/private, e.g. NOAA, Global/Regional OOS)

31. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE and oil spill forecasting – West Pacific JMA model drift validation February 18, 2002February 19, 2002February 20, 2002February 21, 2002 February 22, 2002 February 23, 2002 February 24, 2002 February 25, 2002 : : track of oil pursuit buoy : simulation of MOVE-WNP Case of southeast sea of Hokkaido in February 2002