1. Mesoscale model support for the 2005 MDSS demonstration Paul Schultz NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division (formerly Forecast Systems Laboratory)

2. Domain for 2005 MDSS demonstration

3. Ensemble configuration Two models (WRF, MM5) Re-initialized with new radar, satellite data every hour –Surface obs, profilers, GPS vapor, ACARS … Forecasts out to 18 hours Transmitted in real time to NCAR

4. Temperature verification statistics Temperature (deg C) Wind speed (m/s) Dewpoint (deg C) RMSbiasRMSbiasRMSbias MM53.2+0.22.4+1.63.7+1.5 WRF3.0+1.32.3+1.33.7+2.2 Eta 2.7 +0.52.7-0.2 2.6 +1.7 Table 1. 12-h forecast verification statistics from the 2004 MDSS demonstration conducted in Iowa. Temperature (deg C) Wind speed (m/s) Dewpoint (deg C) RMSbiasRMSbiasRMSbias MM53.2+0.92.2+0.73.3+1.5 WRF3.2+1.02.2+1.23.9+2.2 Eta 2.3 +0.52.1+0.4 2.8 +1.1 Table 2. 12-h forecast verification statistics from the 2005 MDSS demonstration conducted in Colorado.

5. A closer look Figure 5. Time series of temperature forecast biases from WRF.

6. Case of 10 April 2005

7. Precipitation verification Figure 7. Three-hour precipitation forecast verification from the 2004 MDSS demonstration in Iowa. Figure 8. Three-hour precipitation forecast verification from the 2005 MDSS demonstration in Colorado.

8. LAPS hot start initialization eliminates precipitation spin-up in numerical weather prediction Typical spin-up (artist’s conception)

9. Issues Vertical resolution –Resolving shallow cold air masses –Time step impacts Surface fluxes –Implementation of HRLDAS –Assimilation of soil temperature data Initialization –Hot start errors –Detection/correction of upstream problems Funding –Future is severely threatened