The technology challenge: Increasing productivity and protecting the environment Shivaji Pandey Director Plant Production and Protection Division FAO Plant Production and Protection Division

Challenges We Face To feed 9+ billion people in 2050, global food production must increase by 70% -- 80% to come from yield increases and 20% from area expansion Developing countries must almost double production – with little possibility of land expansion in many countries Increased demand for better variety, quality and safety of agricultural products Land area (per cap.) declining: from 4.3 ha in 1961 to 1.5 ha in 2050 Yield growth rate for cereals declining: 3.2% in 1960 to 1% in 2050 Climate change likely to add greater and unpredictable stresses

For Farmers to Increase Yield Greater public investment in institutions and infrastructure Improving research-extension-farmer linkages Policies that increase use of technologies that raise yield and lower cost - increasing farmers’ income Better varieties and management practices

For Farmers to Increase Yield Massive investment in agricultural R&D Genetic enhancement of crop plants Integrated pest management Getting right technologies to real farmers – women and smallholders Conservation Agriculture Improving fertilizer use efficiency Irrigation and water use efficiency

Additional Technologies Livestock –Genetic and feed improvement in poultry –Heat stable Newcastle Disease vaccine –Global Early Warning and Response System (GLEWS) Aquatic animal and plant species –Genetic improvement for yield and feed use efficiency –Modern tool for rapid identification of diseases and cost-effective vaccines Food Safety –Nano-enabled rapid diagnostic tools

Sustainable intensification of wood production –through soil treatment, weed control, fertilization and genetic improvement for fast-growing plantations –For packaging and transport of food, and 50% of rural household energy in 2050 to still come from fuelwood Additional Technologies Energy and farm power in sub-Saharan Africa –Subregion had more tractors than India in the 1970s but has less than 10% of them in 2008

“ No amount of technologies or external assistance can feed a nation that does not itself prioritize food security and agriculture” Address a problem Multidisciplinary approach A single technology not enough Must be locally adapted Must be accompanied by appropriate policies Consideration for sustaining productivity Norman Borlaug:

Discussion Points 1.Do we have right technologies available? If yes, why are they not being used by small farmers? 2.Incentive structures needed for diffusion and adoption of modern technologies 3.Ensuring development and deployment of technologies, especially for women farmers 4.Increasing funding, so right and climate-change relevant technologies are developed; Role of CGIAR 5.Stimulating research of modern plant breeding techniques, regulatory and approval systems, and public-private partnerships 6.Role of public institutions and farmers’ organizations in diffusing technologies, particularly to small-holder and women farmers 7.Is a second green revolution possible? If yes, what should be its characteristics?