ALADIN A transition year EWGLAM/SRNWP, Dubrovnik, 8/10/07

ALADIN 2006=>2007 Preparation of the ALADIN strategic 10 year plan –Collective effort from: An ad-hoc ‘taskforce’ Policy Advisory Committee PM and an editing mini-group –Final version hopefully available in November (quite needed to go to a multi/year planning structure (some lack of continuity in current long-term oriented efforts) AROME preparing for 2008 operational implementation in Toulouse. ALARO also (with some partial steps at ~10km [i.e. without 3MT yet], Cz, At …).

Operational implementation schedule Examples: the good and the bad Outlook News about AROME (as of Oct 07)‏

Operational implementation plan at MF dyn. adaptation test runs 3DVar assimilation test runs preoperational test suite operational production Arome v1 oper. prod. Arome v2 forecasters feedback & getting used to model behaviour R&D Doppler radar assimilationR&D reflectivity, convection & clouds assimilation nowcasting & relocatable versions optimisation on MF's NEC

The Arome-France model config Arome-France current domain Aladin-France domain

Some other AROMEs... Alps (MAP D-PHASE experiment)‏ ongoing test runs by HIRLAM partners (FMI, DMI, SMHI)‏ and some more (Hungary...)‏

Here on a Paris thunderstorm case, missed by the lower resolution ALADIN assimilation, and by AROME in dynamical adaptation mode. The improvement comes from low-level SYNOP T,HU,wind obs Short-range forecast improvement thanks to local data assimilation obs dyn. adaptation fc from assimilation 3-h rain forecast

A typical nice forecast of low clouds model cloudy areas

A tendency to overpredict density currents near thunderstorms: under investigation

The 10km mesh base-line is stabilised and is already operationally or (pre-operationally) implemented, with good objective scores, especially for precipitations. The work on the 5km mesh convective package (integrated, prognostic and multi-scale-oriented => 3MT) is ongoing, hard (upper-air scores just at break-even) but promising. A word about ALARO

3MT

3MT: precip. outcome (provisional) Without 3MT With 3MT

Outlook (until next EWGLAM)  For AROME:  scientific work priorities: turbulence (i.e. numerical diffusion vs subgrid turbulence), physics/dynamics interaction in convective clouds, initialisation of precipitating clouds;  increase vertical resolution.  For ALARO:  Concretise the first good results with the full configuration;  Go back to check the scale independency again;  Create the conditions for a good oper support.