APOCALYPSE NOW!!! GLOBAL WARMING IS COMING !!! IS IT COMING ? IS IT WARMING ? IS IT GLOBAL ? IS IT NOW ? IS IT APOCALYPSE ? A. Illarionov Adviser to the President of Russia February 14, 2005 © Institute of Economic Analysis

Apocalypse now: how mankind is sleepwalking to the end of the Earth «Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers, oceans turning to acid. The world's top scientists warned last week that dangerous climate change is taking place today, not the day after tomorrow.… Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less hospitable world, are likely to pay special attention to the first few weeks of As they puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked into disaster - destroying the climate that has allowed human civilisation to flourish over the past 11,000 years - they may well identify the past weeks as the time when the last alarms sounded». Independent, UK newspaper 06 February 2005 Apocalypse now: how mankind is sleepwalking to the end of the Earth «Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers, oceans turning to acid. The world's top scientists warned last week that dangerous climate change is taking place today, not the day after tomorrow. … Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less hospitable world, are likely to pay special attention to the first few weeks of As they puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked into disaster - destroying the climate that has allowed human civilisation to flourish over the past 11,000 years - they may well identify the past weeks as the time when the last alarms sounded». Independent, UK newspaper 06 February 2005

Meinshausen Source : EU target request for temperature

Meinshausen Source : EU target request for CO 2 concentration

den Elzen Source : EU target request for global CO 2 emissions reduction

den Elzen Source : EU target request for regional CO 2 emissions reduction by 2020 (for the OECD – by 30%).

den Elzen Source : EU target request for regional CO 2 emissions reduction by 2050 (for the OECD – by approximately 95%).

©ИЭА Criterion for the temperature increase is nonsense – for thousands of years temperature was more than 2 o C higher than in pre-industrial period WITHOUT anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Temperature variability over last years. Source: Salamatin A.N., Lipenkov V.Ya., Barkov N.I., Jouzel J., Petit J.R., Raynaud D. Ice-core age dating and palaeothermometer calibration based on isotope and temperature profiles from deep boreholes at Vostok Station (East Antarctica).- Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998, vol. 103, N D8, pp

©ИЭА Criterion for speed of temperature increase is nonsense – in the past it has been many times higher than it was in the 20 th century. Speed of temperature rise in Central Greenland for the last 50 thousand years Source: NOAA, GISP2 Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data, Alley, R.B., 2004.

©ИЭА Source: Budyko М.I., Ronov А.B., Yanshin А.l., History of atmosphere, Criterion for СО 2 concentration is nonsense – for millions of years СО 2 concentration in the atmosphere was much higher than 400 ppm. CO 2 concentration in Lower Cretaceous — Cainozoe. 0,04

©ИЭА lPCC-used and corrected versions of global temperature anomalies indices for Northern Hemisphere, Source: S. McIntyre, R. McKitrick, Corrections to the Mann et. al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemispheric Average Temperature Series, Energy & Environment. Volume 14, Number 6, The “hockey stick” seems to be evident deception – the very concept of “Global Warming” is based on poorly processed, if not falsified, data.

©ИЭА Calculations distorted – temperature calculations for the USA produced by the UK Hadley Centre are visibly distorted. Difference in temperature anomalies measurements for the continental USA produced by NOAA and Hadley, 11YMA, 1890−2003 Sources: NOAA, Hadley Centre.

©ИЭА NO Warming in the USA in the 20 th century – temperature (without urban heat island effect) in 1990s has been 0,2 о С lower that in late 1930s − early 1940s. Temperature summer anomalies for the continental USA, 11YMA, 1890−2000 Source: Hadley Centre.

Imaginary deception – decline in ice surface in the Arctic from September 1979 through September 2003 is result of not a secular trend,.. Source: Impacts of Warming Arctic, p. 25.

©ИЭА …but of 30 year-long upward trend in the natural 60 year-long temperature variability cycle. Temperature anomalies for the Arctic, 11YMA, 1890−2000 Source: Hadley Centre.

©ИЭА Greenland does NOT experience secular Global Warming since temperature there today is still lower than it was 60 years ago. Temperature anomalies for the Greenland, 11YMA, 1880−2004 Source: Hadley Centre.

Rapley Source : NO Warming in Antarctic – for the most of it there is NO ice volume decrease. On the contrary, there is NET ice accumulation there.

Rapley Source : Warming in Antarctic is limited to only Antarctic peninsula, that contains only 0,5% of total Antarctic ice, the full melting of which over centuries can potentially contribute to maximum 0,3 m SLE. It is clearly associated not with air warming, but with ocean current.

Rapley Source : No acceleration in Sea level Rise – WITH anthropogenic CO 2 emissions it rises 10 times slower than WITHOUT it.

Nicholls Source : No Global Flood – according to the most dangerous scenarios sea level rise will be limited to 30−50 cм by 2100.

©ИЭА NO Kilimanjaro ice cap melting due to Global Warming,..

©ИЭА …since local temperature was falling over last 40 years. Temperature in Tanzania and Kenya highlands, Source: GISS, NASA.

Wood Theoretically speaking, over long-run Gulf Stream may shut down... Source :

Wood Source : …but certainly not in the 21 st century. And there is NO detectable THC weakening yet.

Turley No acidification of ocean that is principally different from the trend observed during transition from glacial period to pre-industrial one when there was NO anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Source :

©ИЭА Growth of prosperity is the most effective defense against natural hazards. Fatalities from natural hazards and GDP per capita in the USA, Source: US National Statistics.

©ИЭА It is especially true in poor countries where it saves literally millions of lives. GDP per capita and fatalities from floods in 119 countries, Source: United Nations.

©ИЭА СО 2 emissions are not air pollutant emissions. They are moving in different directions. CО 2 and air pollutant emissions in the USA (1971 = 100%), Source: Statistical Abstract of the USA 2003.

Edmonds Source : Fight against non-existent threat could cost world economy just peanuts! Either US$ 12−27 trln..,

Metz Source : …or US$ 17−47 trln..,

©ИЭА Source: Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report, IPCC, p.119. …or up to US$ 1800 trln. Shall we pay?