Population and socio-economic future scenarios (PosIMS) D Hall Department: Water Affairs and Forestry Chief Directorate: Integrated Water Resources Planning Directorate: Water Resources Planning Systems 21 February 2004

Presentation content What is PosIMS PosIMS process diagrams System advantages Conclusion

What is PosIMS Future scenarios of water requirements Populations statistics Socio-economic indicator and weightings –Population movement, income, etc. Source information selection Methodology selection Interface with PosIMS for available information and storage of results and metadata Inclusion of information from other sources

Problem statement National future scenarios are available Information in areas suitable for water resource planning are not available This system will disseminate the information into those areas suitable for water resource planning

PosIMS process diagram

Gravity model A change in the relative gravity of an area, component or centre would result in a different distribution of the national scenario of population.

Components Spatial presentation manager Scenario manager Projections manager Spatial contributions manager

Components (contd.) Metadata manager Access control Version control Support for analysis tools Help

Components (contd.) Sensitivity analysis Historical analysis Reporting tool –Report template builder –Implementation –Information focus

Components (contd.) Post processors –Population movement analysis –Plot and illustrate results –Summarise results –Assess exceeded constraints –Scenario comparisons

System advantages Use of a common shared base of information for consistent reporting The use of PesIMS functionality resulting in –Less duplication of effort and information –Data sharing –Data traceability –Data security –Metadata

Conclusion A system that –uses shared information, –uses a common source of information, –has access control, –is flexible in generating scenarios, –can be updated as information becomes available and –has metadata with traceability will be an asset to the users