South Carolina Economic Update Dr. Don Schunk Research Economist BB&T Center for Economic & Community Development Coastal Carolina University October 5,

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Presentation transcript:

South Carolina Economic Update Dr. Don Schunk Research Economist BB&T Center for Economic & Community Development Coastal Carolina University October 5, 2009

SC Total Employment Jan – August 2009 June 2000: 1,883,300 jobs August 2009: 1,848,600 jobs

US Total Employment Jan – September 2009 Feb. 2001: million jobs Sept. 2009: million jobs

Myrtle Beach MSA Total Employment Jan – August 2009

Columbia MSA Total Employment Jan – August 2009

Greenville MSA Total Employment Jan – August 2009

Spartanburg MSA Total Employment Jan – August 2009

SC Total Employment: Annual Job Growth Jan 1940 – August 2009 August 2009: -4.1%

Recent Unemployment Trends in South Carolina

SC Unemployment Rate Jan – August 2009

SC Unemployed & UI Claims Jan – August 2009

SC Employment Jan – August 2009

UI Exhaustion Rate June 1972 – August 2009 People are exhausting UI benefits at a record rate… this is why continued claims, unemployed, and unemployment rate have been falling.

SC Labor Force Jan – August 2009 SC’s labor force fell by 28,000 between May and August 2009

SC Unemployment Rate revisited Jan – August % 11.5% Given the actual trends in employment, what if the state’s labor force had remained unchanged since May?

SC Initial Claims for UI Jan – August 2009

SC Initial Claims & Unemployment Jan – August 2009

U.S. Real GDP Growth 1990Q1 – 2010Q % % % % % % % % % % %

Headwinds Affecting Consumer Spending

Job losses, flat incomes, household rebalancing translates into weak consumer spending Aug to Aug. 2009: US Retail Sales down 5.6%

S.C. Retail Sales Jan – July 2009 May-July 2008 to May-July 2009: SC Retail Sales down 12.5%

A Few Key Sectors in South Carolina June 2008 – June 2009: SC net loss of 92,700 jobs –Manufacturing: -29,800 –Leisure & Hospitality: -16,500 –Retail Trade: -12,100 –Construction: -10,900 (-24,400 since June 2007) These sectors ~ 40% of all jobs These + Govt. ~ 60% of all jobs From : SC Employment increased by roughly 155 thousand –Over 50% of the job growth came from construction, leisure & hospitality, retail trade, and local government

SC Total Employment: Annual Job Growth 1940Q1 – 2010Q % % % % % % % % % % %

S.C. Total Employment Growth: Annual % % % % % % % % % % %

S.C. Unemployment Rate 1976Q1 – 2010Q4 SC’s unemployment rate: Expected to approach 15%, perhaps during Spring 2010 The roles of: -ongoing job losses -sluggish job growth -labor force growth What about broader measures of unemployment?

SC Manufacturing Employment 1970Q1 – 2010Q4 140,000 net job loss from

The State of Economic Development in South Carolina

SC Employment Dynamics 1992Q3 – 2008Q3

How do we add jobs? -Attract New Business -Encourage Expansion -Prevent Closings -Prevent Contractions