Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment Design versus Implementation Issues RICHARD J.T. KLEIN POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH (PIK) UNFCCC Workshop on Methodologies on Climate Change Impact and Adaptation / UNDP-GEF National Communications Support Programme Workshop on an Adaptation Policy Framework, Ste. Adèle, Québec, Canada, June 2001

2 Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment — Design versus Implementation Issues OUTLINE Vulnerability Assessment: What and Why? The IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation The AIACC Framework Conclusions

3 Socio-Economic Change Climate Change Current Climate Current Society Future Climate Current Society Future Climate Future Society Current Climate Future Society Impact of Climate Change Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment — Design versus Implementation Issues

4 Potential impacts Climate change Initial impacts Residual impacts Anticipatory adaptation Reactive adaptation Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment — Design versus Implementation Issues

5 Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment — Design versus Implementation Issues Potential impacts Climate change Initial impacts Residual impacts Anticipatory adaptation Reactive adaptation

6 ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT The practice of identifying options to adapt to climate change and evaluating them in terms of criteria such as availability, benefits, costs, effectiveness, efficiency and feasibility. (IPCC, 2001) Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment — Design versus Implementation Issues

7 PURPOSE OF ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT To contribute to vulnerability assessment by estimating the potential to reduce adverse impacts and benefit from positive impacts; To contribute to policymaking by recommending anticipatory adaptation measures, including their implementation considerations. Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment — Design versus Implementation Issues

8 Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment — Design versus Implementation Issues THE IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDELINES (1994) Define problem; Select method; Test method / sensitivity; Select scenarios; Assess biophysical impacts and socio-economic impacts; Assess autonomous adjustments; Evaluate adaptation strategies.

9 Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment — Design versus Implementation Issues EVALUATION OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Define objectives; Specify important climatic impacts; Identify adaptation options; Examine constraints; Quantify measures / formulate alternative strategies; Weight objectives / evaluate trade-offs; Recommend adaptation measures.

10 FROM ADAPTATION TO ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Implicit in most vulnerability studies using the IPCC Technical Guidelines is the assumption that there are no constraints in implementing the adaptation options identified and analysed; Information on the extent to which mechanisms are in place and technologies, expertise and other resources are available is likely to give a more reliable picture of vulnerability to climate change. Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment — Design versus Implementation Issues

11 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY The ability to plan, prepare for, facilitate and implement adaptation measures. Factors that determine adaptive capacity of human systems include economic wealth, technology, information and skills, infrastructure, institutions and equity. (IPCC, 2001) Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment — Design versus Implementation Issues

12 LINK WITH TODAY’S CLIMATE VARIABILITY Analysis of a country’s ability to cope with impacts associated with today’s natural climate variability can provide useful empirical information on its capacity to adapt to climate change. It can also be the basis of a prioritisation of adaptation needs that will reduce vulnerability to both today’s and tomorrow’s climate. Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment — Design versus Implementation Issues

13 Problem Definition (e.g., initial GCM results, observations, stakeholder dialogue) Project Scoping (e.g., sectoral sensitivity analysis, stakeholder dialogue) Impact Assessment data collection scenario development model application integrated impact analysis Adaptation Assessment data collection evaluation of adaptation options analysis of implementation constraints assessment of adaptive capacity Integrated Vulnerability Assessment Academic InsightsPolicy Recommendations Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment — Design versus Implementation Issues

14 CONCLUSIONS The IPCC Technical Guidelines consider all relevant issues of adaptation assessment, including adaptive capacity. The fact that adaptation needs follow from the impact assessment strongly reduces their policy relevance. Consideration of vulnerability to climate variability along with climate change enables and encourages policy-relevant assessment of adaptive capacity. Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment — Design versus Implementation Issues