General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Reviewing household estimates for Scotland Esther Roughsedge General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) estimates-projections/index.html

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Summary In , we reviewed our household estimates method. Considered 3 approaches: 1.Stock-based (previous approach) 2.Population-based (≈ DCLG approach) 3.Council Tax-based (chosen approach)

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Background to household estimates Household estimates and projections are used for planning housing and service provision. Scotland’s overall population is not changing greatly. But households are increasing at 1% per year. Caused by smaller average household size (and ageing population). Wide geographic variation across country.

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Method 1 - stock-based household estimates InputSource Census household countCensus + New builds, conversionsLA data collection - Demolitions = total housing stock LA data collection - LA vacant housingLA data collection - Private vacant housing & 2 nd homes = occupied dwellings Census + Sharing allowance = households Census

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Method 1: Stock-based household estimates Advantages –Appeared to track changes reasonably well between 1991 and –No new data collections required. Disadvantages –Slow – collecting information from LAs took a long time. –Some concerns about data quality (lots of revisions). –Relied on Census for private sector vacants/2 nd homes. –No information on household type. –Not available for sub-LA areas.

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Method 2: population-based household estimates Equivalent to household projections method (similar to DCLG approach). 1.Based on population estimates; 2.Subtract communal establishment population (from Census); 3.Project household composition information from the Censuses. –By household type, age group and LA

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Population-based household estimates Advantages –Population estimates and household estimates will tie in together. –Will include household type and age group. Disadvantages –Same weaknesses as household projections – rely on Census.

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Method 3: Council Tax-based household estimates For Council Tax billing, councils keep a record of all dwellings and any discounts/exemptions. Vacant dwellings and 2 nd homes are entitled to certain discounts/exemptions. Can use this to estimate no. occupied dwellings (≈ households).

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Council Tax-based household estimates Advantages –Unlike other approaches, there is no ‘drift’ between Censuses. –Far more timely. –Can include additional information on second homes/vacant properties. –Same method used to produce neighbourhood- level household estimates.

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Council Tax-based household estimates Disadvantages –If Council Tax is scrapped or substantially changes, we may lose this data collection. –Figures don’t exactly match the Census (e.g., don’t include shared households), so we anchor results to Census. –Little information on household type.

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Conclusion We wrote to each council in Scotland –Reasons for review and advantages and disadvantages of each approach. –Data and charts showing time series data using each approach. Discussed with Household Analysis Review Group. Concluded that Council Tax-based approach was best, mainly because it avoids ‘drift’ between Censuses and allows small area household estimates to be developed.

General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Any questions?