June 2010 Proximity Talks: What’s Next? York University

Vision 21st Century Zionism Mission Significant & Substantive Impact Strategy Be Israel's Primary Resource for Decision-Support Grow Israel's Future Strategists The Reut Institute

Militarized PL State Foreign forces using PL Terrorism and Rocket fire IL Leaves: Security Threat Military Logic: Stay Israel’s Challenge: Balancing Clash of Logics Demographic Burden Erosion of 2SS Logic of Implosion IL Stays: Political Threat Political Logic: Leave What is the main threat from the Palestinians?

PL Disenchantment with Political Process Fayyad’s State Building Economic Measures vs. Israel ‘White’ Intifada Negotiation by Proxy Palestinians: Frustration & the Search for Strategy

Obama Administration: Raising Bar Too High? Arab States: Normalization Israel: Settlement Freeze Palestinians: Greater Security / End Incitement Negotiations Leading to Permanent Status Agreement within 2 Years The Middle East peace process has not moved forward. And I think it's fair to say that for all our efforts at early engagement, it is not where I want it to be…If we had anticipated some of these political problems on both sides earlier, we might not have raised expectations as high

The Structure of the Political Process How to reach Permanent Status? Permanent Status (Definition): End of Israeli Responsibility A Palestinian State alongside IL Historical Issues: agreed resolution

How to end control over the Palestinians? Permanent Agreement Palestinian State First (agreed) PSPB (Return to Roadmap) First Agreement, then PL State End of Conflict, Finality of Claims 2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA Annapolis and OsloThe Road Map

IL Govt. Weakness Package Agreement: Structural Issues No ZOPA PL Division PSA Serious Disagreements on Historic Issues + Security Shaky Center Right Coalition Constitutional Crisis: Abbas lacks Legitimacy Increasing Division between Gaza & WB

PSPB Approach: Structural Problems No ZOPA Palestinian Split Hamas may support: Part of Phased Plan; Fatah Not a Partner Growing Split Between Gaza & WB How Will the Agreement be Ratified? PSPB No Palestinian Ratification means No Israeli Ratification An Unratified Agreement May Bring About PA Collapse

Vacuum Filled by Other Suggestions Unilateral Recognition Obama Parameters Borders First Arab Peace Initiative Status Quo Promotes 1SS PSA Unobtainable Agreed PSPB: No Partner Economic Peace Unacceptable

How to end control over the Palestinians? Permanent Agreement Palestinian State First (agreed) No Agreement: Upgrading the PA PSPB (Return to Roadmap) First Agreement, then PL State End of Conflict, Finality of Claims 2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA Systematic Buildup; PL State; Permanent Agreement Palestinian State First (de-facto) Building PL State bypasses Constitutional Crisis

How to Advance the Creation of a State? Gestures Consolidating the Status of Moderate Forces Inside the System Without Strengthening the PA Strengthen PA Actions aimed at strengthening PA’s powers & authorities of within framework of existing agreements. Upgrade PA Systematically transferring powers & authorities above those that exist by virtue of the Interim Agreement Power to Establish Consulates Abroad, Issuing Currency Dayton and Blair’s Actions for Restoring the Palestinian Police Remove Checkpoints, Ease Restrictions, Promote Investment Only Israel Can ‘Upgrade’ the PA

To Lead or be Led? That is the Question With a Plan, Israel Leads Without a Plan Israel gets Led If Israel Wants to Lead – it needs a New Political Strategy If wants to be Led - Not at Expense of ‘Special Relations’

Complex Challenges Volatile Environment Long term, Substantive Broad View Short, Unstable Tenures Fragmented Knesset & Gov Short Term, Populist, Sectarian conduct Address for Decision Makers Model to Emulate Training Future Strategists Why Reut?

Strategic Surprise Reut’s Work Cycle RealityPolicy Relevancy Gap Emergi ng Trends Identifying Mapping basic assumptions; Testing their relevancy; Identifying potential strategic surprises & opportunities Researching Creating new knowledge using experts and texts Impact