ECONOMIC & LABOR MARKET CHARACTERISTICS & PROJECTIONS Pam Bodwell EVT 7066 Foundations of Career & Workforce Education University of South Florida October, 2008

US DEMOGRAPHICS The US population is expected to increase by 21.8 million for the period and over the next 50 years is expected to grow by nearly 50% to an estimated 394 million by the year The segment of the population which will increase the most is the age category between The percentage of minorities and immigrants will rise with the highest increases to be seen in the populations of Asians and Hispanics.

US CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 1996, 2006 & Projected 2016 Percent DistributionAnnual Growth rate (percent) Age, years: 16 to to & older Sex: Men Women Race: White Black Asian Ethnicity: Hispanic Origin Other than Hispanic White non-Hispanic

INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT - SERVICE Growth projected to continue in service- providing sectors: – Professional & business services – Health care & social assistance Service –providing industries will generate almost all of the employment gain from 2006 to 2016 and will provide more than three-quarters of all jobs in 2016.

RESULTS OF AN AGING POPULATION In terms of employment, the health care and social assistance sector is projected to have the most rapid growth in the economy, adding 4.0 million jobs by 2016, an annual growth rate of 2.4 percent!

INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT - GOODS Within the goods-producing sector, construction is the only sector projected to grow. Employment in manufacturing will decline by 1.5 million jobs. Employment in goods-producing industries is expected to decrease from 14.9 to 13.1 percent of total employment

Top 5 industries with largest wage & salary employment growth, Industry EmploymentChange #% Mgmt., scientific &technical Consulting services9211, Employment Services3,6574, General medical & surgical hospitals, public and private4,9885, K-12 schools, public & private8,3468, Local government, excl. education & hospitals5,5946,

Top 5 industries with largest wage & salary employment declines, Industry EmploymentChange #% Gasoline stations Printing & related support activities Motor vehicle parts manufacturing Department Stores1,5511, Cut & Sew Apparel Manufacturing

INFORMATION The information sector is projected to experience output growth during the projection period, , faster than any other sector in the economy. Output in the information sector is expected to increase by $676.6 billion over the projected period, reaching $1.7 trillion in Most of this projected growth is expected in 3 industries: telecommunications, software publishing and Internet and other related services.

FAMILIES AND INCOME Despite the fact that the most recent economic expansion began in late 2001, the real income of the median family fell each year through 2004, the most recent available data. Between 2000 and 2004, real median family income fell by 3%, or about $1,600 in 2004 dollars.

401(k) – Empty Nest? 1978Section 401(k) of Congress's new tax code states employees can avoid taxes on income they receive as deferred payment 1981IRS allows employees to defer part of their pretax 1984>17,000 companies offer 401(k) plans among their retirement-savings options Enron & WorldCom face lawsuits from employees whose 401(k)s were drained because of investments in company stock 2008Record market lows take a toll on retirement funds

EDUCATION, NO LONGER A LUXURY! Full-time workers age 25 and over without a high school diploma had median weekly earnings of $471, compared with $618 for high school graduates (no college) and $1,131 for those holding at least a bachelor’s degree. Among college graduates with advanced degrees (professional or master’s & above), the highest earning 10 percent of male workers made $3,192 or more per week, compared with $2,287 or more for their female counterparts. (3 rd quarter, 2008)

REFERENCES U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Figueroa, E., & Woods, R., Industry output and employment projections to 2016, Monthly Labor Review, November Economic Policy Institute, Fetini, A., A Brief History of: The 401(k), TIME, October 27, 2008.