Ocean - Proshutinsky/Haidvogel (CG Left Bay) What science questions exist for the arctic that are best answered with coupled regional models? o process studies (see next slide; also polyna studies) o reconstruction studies based upon control scenarios (e.g., ensemble of runs with a range of AO forcing, …) o sensitivity studies (e.g., ecosystem response to melting ice, …) o coupled response studies (e.g., coastal erosion, …) o observational design studies (AON) o model improvement studies

Process studies: ocean/ice

Atmosphere Process studies: atmosphere

Model improvements AOMIP/OCEAN/ICE

Model improvements Atmosphere

Concerns  There are not enough observational data for model initialization, forcing, validation and assimilation.  A comprehensive AON is urgently needed to satisfy needs of both observational and modeling communities o ice coverage / thickness (satellites) o monitor strategic locations o profilers o bathymetry (IBCAO)

Ocean What are the existing modeling and model validation efforts aimed towards answering these questions? 1.MIPs: SIMIP,ARCMIP, AOMIP (proposed), CARCMIP (status?), Southern Ocean MIP (?) 2.Global and regional models (independent validation efforts)

Challenges The major challenge of the MIPs is to improve existing regional Arctic atmosphere, ice, ocean and terrestrial models and, respectively, global climate models:  This work is expensive and requires significant financial and labor resources.  In order to develop a comprehensive arctic model it is necessary to involve the entire community of arctic researches including modelers and observers, scientists and engineers from different disciplines.

What model and model validation projects are on the horizon aimed towards answering these questions? Ocean o AOMIP proposal was submitted in November 2007 o OCMIP 3 o EcoMIP (US GLOBEC interested) o DARWIN (self-organizing approach vs IBMs)

Table 1 AOMIP Project participants. Institute, PI(s) CountryAbbreviatio n Support type Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, A. MakshtasRussiaAARIB Alfred Wegener Institute, R. Gerdes and C. KoeberleGermanyAWIB Florida State University, E. Chassignet and D. DukhovskoyUSAFSUA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, S. Griffies, M. WintonUSAGFDLB Goddard Space Flight Center, S. HakkinenUSAGSFCB International Arctic Research Center, B. Hibler, G. PanteleevUSAIARCB Institute of Marine Sciences, UAF, M. JohnsonUSAIMSA Institute of Ocean Sciences, G. HollowayCanadaIOSB Jet Propulsion Laboratory, R. Kwok, A. NguyenUSAJPLB Los Alamos National Laboratory, E. HunkeUSALANLB Massachusetts Institute of Technology, C. HillUSAMITA Naval Postgraduate School, W. MaslowskiUSANPSA National Center for Atmospheric Research, M. HollandUSANCARB New York University, D. HollandUSANYUA Norwegian Polar Institute, Ole Anders NøstNorwayNPIB Ocean and Atmosphere Systems, M. Karcher and F. KaukerGermanyOASYSB Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, M. MaquedaUKPOLB Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, N. YakovlevRussiaRASMB Russian Academy of Science, Novosibirsk, E. GolubevaRussiaRASNB Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, M. MeirSwedenSMHIB University College London, S. LaxonUKUCLB University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth, C. ChenUSAUMASA University of Washington, M. Steele, J. ZhangUSAUWA Woods Hole Oceanogr. Ins, A. Proshutinsky, P. Winsor, A. Condron USAWHOIA

What arctic science questions cannot be answered with limited area regional coupled arctic models? Ocean o any question where dynamic coupling between the global and regional models is strong

What science questions are missing from existing efforts? Ocean o mass balance questions (e.g., what are land ice sheets doing? How is mass being rearranged in the ocean?) o fate of fresh water inputs from (e.g.) Greenland. o sea ice at high resolution (interactions with – e.g. – tides, mesoscale eddies, submesoscale, …) o transmission/fate of eddy signals across non-uniform grids

What human systems are relevant to the physical systems being addressed? Are there existing models for these human systems? What are human systems? Ocean o ecosystems/fisheries o navigation o energy exploration o coastal erosion o national security

What are reasonable boundaries on the ‘Arctic System’ for your area of research? Ocean o down to 58N, including: Bering Sea, Norwegian Sea, Barents Sea, Baffin Bay, etc. Sea of Okhotsk (?)