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Craig Nicolson, UMass-Amherst

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Presentation on theme: "Craig Nicolson, UMass-Amherst"— Presentation transcript:

1 Craig Nicolson, UMass-Amherst
Open Science Meeting, 2003 Parallel Sessions Intro & Overview Craig Nicolson, UMass-Amherst Monday 27th October, 2003

2 The SEARCH Axiom “Recent decades have seen a complex suite of pan-arctic changes that are interrelated…” Widespread Pan-Arctic Land, Sea, Atmosphere Interrelated Covariance Arctic is a system Feedbacks, Drivers

3 Open Science Meeting Organizing committee decided:
Not simply a “Plenary Talks Meeting” Exciting chance to see the state of the system from a ‘grassroots’ range of scientific perspectives The heart of the OSM is these two blocks of open sessions

4 Changes, Feedbacks, Drivers
Welcome Today ACIA Regional view Pan-arctic view Parallel Intro Lunch Changes on the Land Changes in the Sea Changes in the Atmosphere Changes in the Coastal system Posters Posters Posters Posters Dinner

5 Feedbacks, Drivers Tomorrow Social Feedbacks Biological Feedbacks
The SEARCH Vision Tomorrow Measuring Feedbacks Coupled models Human-Environment Relatn Freshwater Cycle Terrestrial Feedbacks Sea Ice: 2 perspectives Lunch Social Feedbacks Biological Feedbacks Physical Feedbacks Drivers & Causes Connections: Science Issues

6 Changes #1 (Monday) Changes on the Land Changes in the Sea Changes on the Atmosphere Changes in Coastal areas 39 Posters Posters Posters Posters What parts of the terrestrial system are the most sensitive to changes? Are we monitoring these changes closely enough? 1949 2000 Permafrost Veg/Tundra Glaciers Hydrology Humans

7 Changes #1 (Monday) Permafrost Vegetation/Tundra Glaciers Hydrology
Changes on the Land Changes in the Sea Changes on the Atmosphere Changes in Coastal areas 39 Posters Posters Posters Posters ‘Overview’ talks (6 x 15min) ‘Rapid-fire’ talks (14 x 5min) Permafrost Vegetation/Tundra Glaciers Hydrology Humans Detailed observations Findings of change Goal: -“Catalog of changes” - As up-to-date as possible

8 Changes #2 (Monday) Changes on the Land Changes in the Sea Changes on the Atmosphere Changes in Coastal areas Posters 46 Posters Posters Posters Which places in the Arctic marine system are the most sensitive to changes? What kinds of changes? Subpolar Oceans; Arctic Ocean and Seas Geochemical Physical Ecosystem

9 Changes #2 (Monday) Bering Sea Barents Sea Arctic Ocean, Greenland Sea
Changes on the Land Changes in the Sea Changes on the Atmosphere Changes in Coastal areas Posters 46 Posters Posters Posters Bering Sea Barents Sea Arctic Ocean, Greenland Sea Coherent change and variability in the Arctic from physical,chemical to biological components and ecosystem Linkages and feedbacks among the components (11 x 15 min)

10 Changes #3 (Monday) Changes on the Land Changes in the Sea Changes on the Atmosphere Changes in Coastal areas Posters Posters 12 Posters Posters What key changes are being observed in the atmospheric system? Sea Level Pressure Tropospheric Air Temperature and Circulation Airborne contaminants and surface ozone Humidity, Clouds, Aerosols, Radiation and Precipitation Observing systems for the Arctic atmosphere

11 Changes #3 (Monday) Observations of change:
Changes on the Land Changes in the Sea Changes on the Atmosphere Changes in Coastal areas Posters Posters 12 Posters Posters Observations of change: Patterns, Spatial & Time Scales Sea Level Pressure Tropospheric Air Temperature Tropospheric Circulation Airborne contaminants & surface ozone Humidity, Clouds, Aerosols, Radiation and Precipitation Observing systems for the Arctic atmosphere Modeling atmospheric change Assimilation and reanalysis of atmospheric variables GCM response to century-scale forcing by anthropogenic GHG Spatial scaling of model variables (3 x 20 min) (4 x 20 min)

12 Changes #4 (Monday) Changes on the Land Changes in the Sea Changes on the Atmosphere Changes in Coastal areas Posters Posters Posters 6 Posters What is the role of coastal regions in the Arctic system? What processes control Arctic coastal dynamics? How will climatic changes and sea level change affect: Coastal retreat? Material flux? Methane emission? Permafrost development?

13 Changes #4 (Monday) Context & Programs (3 x 10 min)
Changes on the Land Changes in the Sea Changes on the Atmosphere Changes in Coastal areas Posters Posters Posters 6 Posters Context & Programs (3 x 10 min) Physical processes (3 x 10 min) Material fluxes & biogeochemical cycles (4 x 10 min)

14 Feedbacks & Drivers Tomorrow Social Feedbacks Biological Feedbacks
The SEARCH Vision Tomorrow Measuring Feedbacks Coupled models Human-Environment Relatn Freshwater Cycle Terrestrial Feedbacks Sea Ice: 2 perspectives Lunch Social Feedbacks Biological Feedbacks Physical Feedbacks Drivers & Causes Connections: Science Issues

15 Feedbacks & Drivers #1 (Tue)
Social Feedbacks Biological Feedbacks Physical Feedbacks Drivers & Causes 12 Posters Posters Posters Posters How might climate variation affect human activities in the Arctic (e.g., commercial fishing, subsistence harvest)? How do political and economic forces for change (both historical and contemporary) complicate environment-human interactions? How might human adaptations to ecosystem effects of climate shifts change ecosystems and communities?

16 Feedbacks & Drivers #1 (Tue)
Social Feedbacks Biological Feedbacks Physical Feedbacks Drivers & Causes 12 Posters Posters Posters Posters Human adaptation to climate variation (3 talks x 15 min) Programs researching social feedbacks (Panel discussion)

17 Feedbacks & Drivers #2 (Tue)
Social Feedbacks Biological Feedbacks Physical Feedbacks Drivers & Causes Posters 12 Posters Posters Posters How do terrestrial ecosystem processes feedback to the Arctic climate system? How are marine biological systems linked to the Arctic’s variable climate system? Experimental manipulation Species case studies Modeling

18 Feedbacks & Drivers #2 (Tue)
Social Feedbacks Biological Feedbacks Physical Feedbacks Drivers & Causes Posters 12 Posters Posters Posters Terrestrial linkages (2 talks x 20 min) Marine linkages (2 talks x 15min) Case studies (3 talks x 15 min)

19 Feedbacks & Drivers #3 (Tue)
Social Feedbacks Biological Feedbacks Physical Feedbacks Drivers & Causes Posters Posters 17 Posters Posters What are the relative effects of Cloud feedback processes Atmospheric heat transport Surface- and Ice-Albedo processes on the Arctic and global climate system?

20 Feedbacks & Drivers (Tue)
Social Feedbacks Biological Feedbacks Physical Feedbacks Drivers & Causes Posters Posters Posters 9 Posters What is the relative importance of mid latitude processes versus high latitude processes in forcing changes to the Arctic’s atmospheric and oceanic circulation system?

21 Changes in the Atmosphere
Changes on the Land Changes in the Sea Changes in the Atmosphere Coastal Processes

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