Vigilant State 2 COLLECTION INTELLIGENCE. 1. Strategic Revolutions.

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Presentation transcript:

Vigilant State 2 COLLECTION INTELLIGENCE

1. Strategic Revolutions

Vigilant State 2 1. Strategic Revolutions mobility surprise attack nuclear weapons premium on warning

Vigilant State 2 NEW sophistication of intelligence including – humint + deception in 1870s sigint WWI imint WWII processing 1960s producing information on intentions and capabilities

2. The Problem of Surprise

Vigilant State 2 2. Surprise and the Intelligence Cycle Why do surprise attacks occur so often ? All surprise attacks = intelligence failures ??

The Intelligence Cycle DIRECTION DISSEMINATION PROCESSING COLLECTION

3. Human Intelligence

Vigilant State 2 3. Human Intelligence or Humint Classic form – Go Spy the Land Types of motivation Cheap Good on intentions Good on non-state actors

Vigilant State 2 Slow and involves communications risk Requires high skill levels especially in secure states Defectors & Deception – who is master? Overlap with bugging

4. Technical

Vigilant State 2 4. Technical Signals Intelligence – Sigint Imagery – Imint Classic form – Bletchley Park Types of sigint – comint and elint Increasingly Expensive & Crypto Problem Good on capabilities

Vigilant State 2 Weak on non-state actors Fast & can be re-tasked quickly Fewer security worries - but overload Also can be deceived – Kola Overlap with bugging

5. Open Source

Vigilant State 2 5. Open Sources – Opint Classic form – Newspapers Internet FBIS Cheap + issue of prestige End of closed states – BBC 1990s

Vigilant State 2 Weak on the last pariah states Weak on important state aspects eg WMD Fewer security worries - but info overload Can be shared and pooled – important!!!

6. Political and Ethical Risks

Vigilant State 2 6. Political and Ethical Risks A. Human High political and ethical risk Decline of the ideological spy Induces paranoia on all sides ?

Vigilant State 2 B. Technical Was perceived as low risk 100s lost in aircraft and submarines Only satellites are low risk

Vigilant State 2 Is intelligence provocative or benign ? ‘You shall know the truth and its shall make you free’ Scott Sagan on the Alaskan Incident

7. “Pressure” - Collection Now

Vigilant State 2 7. Collection in the 21st century A. the 1990s debate end of the cold war & endless new targets red mafia, proliferation, humanitarian budget grabbing By 1999 the toilet cleaners of globalisation?

Vigilant State 2 B. 11 September 2001 How much change there had been? 50% have been there 18 months Privatisation Watch and Wait or Seize and Strike? Globalisation ?