Register-based migration statistics and using additional administrative data sources Barica Razpotnik Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia UNECE Workshop on Migration Statistics, Minsk, May 2015

Contents Central Population Register (CPR) and Statistical Office (SURS) CPR-based migration statistics Improving migration statistics by using additional administrative sources

Central Population Register (CPR) First established after the 1971 population census by then-Statistical Office, in 1998 handed over to the Ministry of the Interior Made up of several separate registers (e.g. register of permanent residents, register of foreigners, register of births, household register, asylum register, register of citizenship etc.), all of which were fully integrated in 2006 (using PINs and other identifiers if needed) Since 2008 SURS has been receiving all the data for demographic statistics on an individual level (PIN) Statistics on usual resident population, migrations, marriages, acknowledgements of paternity solely CPR-based Statistics on births, deaths and divorces use a combination of sources (National Institute of Public Health/district courts + usual resident population)

Data transmission CRP  SURS Quarterly data transmissions 3 months after the reference date/end of reference quarter; some variables are specifically SURS-defined; EVENTS include all registered events (vital, migration, administrative) that occurred to any person in the reference quarter; 180 variables, about 0.4 million records per transmission; STOCK includes all living persons who can legally reside in the country on a given reference date; 172 variables, about 2.7 million records per transmission; STOCK(1 JAN) + EVENTS(Q1) = STOCK(1 APR) STOCK data are the basis for deriving usual resident population, with some auxiliary data being derived from EVENTS data Selected EVENTS data are the basis for migration statistics, along with final usual resident population for each quarter

CPR-based migration statistics Changes in usual resident population (between quarterly reference dates in one year) –Persons newly appearing among usual resident population –Persons who disappeared from usual resident population –Persons in final data on births and deaths for the year are excluded EVENTS data on migration –Registration of permanent or temporary residence –Extension of temporary residence –Registration of temporary absence/return after temporary absence –Administrative changes of residence JOINT DATA DATA CLEANING Removing irrelevant records (e.g. multiple records for the same event) Editing errors due to delays in registration of different events Completing incomplete records FINAL MIGRATION DATABASE

Improving migration statistics by using additional administrative sources Paper first presented at joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics in Chisinau in September 2014:

Population and activity status 1 8 activity status data sources to be linked with usual resident population: 1. Statistical Register of Employment (SRDAP, internal source); 2. Registered unemployed persons (provided by Employment Service of Slovenia); 3. Students in vocational and professional higher education (statistical survey); 4. Recipients of national scholarship in upper secondary and tertiary education (statistical survey); 5. Recipients of old-age, disability, survivor’s and national pensions (provided by Pension and Disability Insurance Institute of Slovenia); 6. Family members of insured persons and other inactive persons in health insurance (provided by Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia); 7. Recipients of social and other assistance and benefits (provided by Ministry of Labour, Family, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities); 8. Income tax payers (provided by Tax administration of the Republic of Slovenia). Hierarchy of sources  each usual resident 15+ is assigned an activity status, statistical methods (automated corrections, imputations) used for missing values

Persons appearing among usual resident population and not in any of the activity status data sources & persons appearing in other sources but are not counted as usual resident population  unregistered migrants? Population and activity status 2 usual resident population activity status data sources UNREGISTERED EMIGRANTS? UNREGISTERED IMMIGRANTS?

Why are some migrants unregistered? Ignorance about the legislation & legislation not being enforced  Slovenian citizens not registering their temporary departure from the country  failure to register their return after a correctly registered temporary departure Speculation  many rights are based on having registered permanent residence in Slovenia (e.g. social benefits, health insurance, also for foreign citizens)  long-term resident status in the EU for non-EU foreigners with permanent residence in Slovenia (less incentive to de-register if returning to their home-country)  „interest“ in not having registered residence in Slovenia

Potential unregistered emigrants 1 A person counted as usual resident but not appearing in any of the activity status data sources 3 years in a row  potential unregistered emigrant 2011, 2012 and 2013 used for this exercise Table 1: Overview of usual resident population not found in any of the activity status sources, Slovenia 1) Share calculated from population aged 16+ because persons aged 15+ in the first year are aged 16+ in the second year. 2) Share calculated from population aged 17+ because persons aged 15+ in the first year are aged 17+ in the third year. Source: SURS Total population2,050,1892,055,4962,058,821 of which aged 15+1,759,3361,761,3471,760,726 of which not found in any source but CPR30,94748,35826,349 % not found Not found on 2 consecutive reference dates-23,91920,471 % not found twice 1) Not found on 3 consecutive reference dates--17,730 % not found three times 2) --1.0

Potential unregistered emigrants 2 86% of usual residents not found were Slovenian citizens 14% foreign citizens is well above the share of this group in the usual resident population (4.7% on 1 January 2013 among those aged 17 or more) More than 3% of all foreign usual residents were not found, while among Slovenian citizens this share was just under 1%

A person NOT counted as usual resident but appearing in at least one of the activity status data sources  potential unregistered immigrant In this exercise only persons with registered permanent residence + registered temporary absence of more than 12 months were looked at. Fewer sources and only one year (2013) used: 1.Statistical Register of Employment (SRDAP, internal source); 2.Registered unemployed persons (provided by Employment Service of Slovenia); 3.Students in vocational and professional higher education (statistical survey); 4.Income tax payers (provided by Tax administration of the Republic of Slovenia). Appearing in these sources would probably be a good indicator that a person is in fact a resident of Slovenia. Scholarships, pensions and health insurance are not necessarily indicative of this. Potential unregistered immigrants 1

Potential unregistered immigrants 2 Table 2: Persons with registered permanent residence, temporarily absent for 12 months or more, in activity status data sources, Slovenia, ) Because a person is often found in more than one source, the sum of individual sources is higher than the number of all persons found at least once. Source: SURS Table 3: Derived activity status and source used for temporarily absent for 12 months or more who were found in at least one source, Slovenia, 2013 Source: SURS Total28,983 of which aged 15+27,690 Found in at least one source 1) 9,860 SRDAP 2,116 Registered unemployed 440 Enrolled students 155 Income tax payers 9,362 Source – totalSRDAP Registered unemployed Enrolled students Income tax payers Activity status – total Employed Unemployed Tertiary students Pensioners

What now? Methodology for detecting unregistered migration not yet refined (especially for immigration), year-to-year changes in data sources etc.  We need to refine the methodology and ensure consistent data sources. What to do about unregistered migrations of children (under-15‘s can go undetected in some activity status data sources)?  Additional data sources? Include described (but refined) procedures into the regular statistical process?  Or would giving an estimate suffice? Sample survey planned as part of Eurostat grant for the action "Usual residence population: Feasibility studies„  See how relevant presented exercise and further analyses are.

Thank you!