National Accounts and Related Outputs Work Plan: 2013 – 2017 Andrew Walton

NA Work Plan Scope Progress so far Why are we doing it? Some highlights Next steps

NA Work Plan: Scope National Accounts and components Public Sector Finances Balance of Payments and Trade Short term Indicators Regional Accounts

Progress so far Already consulted on a five-year National Accounts and related outputs plan As a result we have published an agreed plan as a basis for future discussions with users This is based on ‘expected’ resources Not set in stone Responsive to developments But recognise that this will have an impact

Why are we doing it? User interest is very high Lots of issues and improvements More effective way of prioritising Business as usual and ESA10/BPM6 takes most of the resource Manage expectations

Detail of the plan - summary For 2014 major ESA10/BPM6 demand Legally required so little choice Beyond 2015 more scope But still a lot of ESA10/BPM6 development until 2017 or 2018 Identified the other big developments Flow of funds Quarterly constant price supply and use Source improvement not quick Plan sets out some deliverables along the path

Business as Usual Improving our Business as usual Ensuring the range of publications meet user needs Presenting the statistics to both expert and lay users Making underlying data easily accessible for all users Ensuring the production of the statistics is as streamlined as possible to maximise time available for excellent presentation Implement a wider user engagement strategy Communicate with users via a programme of articles and seminars that address emerging issues. Expand the revisions database and analyses to include the main aggregates.

Developments National Accounts development & Continuous Improvement Meeting Regulatory requirements ESA10/BPM6 Comply with regulations Address GNI reservations and A points Quality initiatives Outcome of National Statistics Quality Review not yet in the plan Continuous improvement

National Statistics Quality Review Scope as in this work plan User focussed Externally led with ‘expert’ NA support Team identified over the summer Review started in September Finishing Spring 2014 Recommendations prioritised in next year’s work plan

GDP and short term indicators Various reviews Construction Industry reviews COICOP Living costs and food survey Compilation methods Supply and Use developments Annual constant price Interim solution for detailed purchases Input-output analytical tables

GDP and short term indicators Nominal GDP Improving processes Historic data Output data More detailed HHFCE and GFCF ESA10 dataset alongside Blue Book 2014 Key issue – quarterly KP SUT

Quarterly constant price Supply and Use Tables Vision would be ‘world class’ Most countries with QSUT use large amounts of modelled data In UK, would highlight some data deficiencies (income, Intermediate consumption, some household expenditure) Source improvements not yet planned Given changes to survey programme required by ESA10/BPM6, unlikely before 2019

Quarterly constant price Supply and Use Tables But we can do something Annual KP SUT gives experience of simultaneous balancing Develop quarterly ‘commodity flow’ for major products (e.g cars, oil, energy, construction, aircraft) Publish by 2015 Develop plan by 2016 for source improvement

Sector and Financial Accounts Big ESA10 challenge More sectors and accounts Transaction reviews Other international G20 data gaps, SDDS+, MIPS Historic data Working to restore pre-1987 data Key issue – Flow of funds

Flow of Funds In this context means ‘from whom to whom’ Additional data collection planned for 2018 as part of ESA10/BPM6 programme Before then? Bank ‘requirements’ Update Finstats methodological guide Articulate explicitly the coverage of the OFI sector ‘Use more data’ Resource arrived to start the work in September, so in the planning stage now

Balance of Payment and Trade Major BPM6 changes No derogations so more uncertainty over delivery Pressures on understanding new concepts Global Value Chains Digital economy No plans to do anything significant other than BPM6

Public Sector Finances Aligning PSF and NA 6 pack agreement Review of the “ex measures” ESA10 challenge Review of Network Rail State government Social security funds Classifications Deal with more cases

Regional accounts Methodological enhancements GVA(P) 'real' measure for ESA10 Balanced estimate of regional GVA NUTS boundary changes 2015 Regional HHFCE (future aspiration - post 2015) Key issue – Scottish referendum

Concluding comments Set out in detail: Plans for Blue Book 14 Beyond 2014 what’s planned For Flow of funds For Quarterly SUT For next year need to include response to NSQR

Any Questions?