Diana Villiers Negroponte The Brookings Institution July 8, 2013

Ancient Civilization Olmec – oldest people to inhabit the Gulf Coast Mayan – civilization dominated by the arts and trade. Zapotec – Use of metals in Oaxaca. Aztec empire – warriors for one hundred years; capital city, Tenochtitlan, is modern day Mexico City

Spanish Colonial Period th Century arrival of the Spaniards Power of the Catholic church Dominance of the Spanish conquistas and later their families Marriage to Spanish family, but not to indigenous. Mestizaje is slow Patriarchal families – jobs based on allegiance to patriarch

Revolution & Nationalism 1910 Revolution against the old order of President Porfirio Diaz – landed class, church property; Decade long civil war – heroes; Pancho Villa’s incursion into Colombus, AZ; 1917 Resistance to General Pershing’s incursion and 1917 Constitution 1938 Nationalization of the petroleum reserves and enshrinement in Article 27 of the Mexican Constitution;

Post Revolutionary Mexico 1928 – 2000 Emergence of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI); Appointed President for 6 years; Corporatist government: Army Campesinos (peasants) Trade Unions Business leaders Controlled press – cooption of critics Communal ownership of land

The Modernization of Mexico 1982 – President Miguel del a Madrid applies to join GATT; 1989 – President Carlos Salinas de Gortari proposes a North American Free Trade Agreement; 1993 – PRI candidate killed on campaign trail and succeeded by Dr. Ernesto Zedillo, Min. of Education – allows the PAN to win mid-term elections; 2000 – PRI looses to the Partido de Acción Nacional (PAN).

Early Signs of Democratic Change Elections freer; Press no longer tied to the government; Corporations less committed to one party; Alternation in power; Slow growth of civil society, particularly environmental movements BUT: PEMEX untouched, role of Church untouched. Corporatist parties still hold allegiance to the PRI

TODAY Congress independent, critical, but struggles to achieve consensus; Business privatized, but still highly concentrated; Trade Unions remain strong and sometimes destructive – particularly electricity and education; Energy – Cantarell field has diminished source of oil – what next?

Challenges facing Mexico Today Education: bottom of PISA scores; average length of school day, number of days in school; teachers who don’t show up; Energy: increasing imports of natural gas from the U.S. to provide necessary energy; Productivity: measured by per capita income; Growth = sluggish The Informal Sector

Priority of Education Countries with the Highest Productivity are Countries where Education Levels have grown consistently; 3 stages of educational development: expand coverage of basic education (1-6) extend to middle & higher levels; access to all with capacity to participate then quality of ed. Mexico 4.5 years until Now 8.5 years. Need to reach 13 years like Canada, Russia; Each additional year in school = 10% more earning power; Person with High School degree has 34% higher income than someone who finished Junior High (secundaria).

Energy Challenges Production from Cantarell: 2004=2.136 mbd. 2008=1.047 mbd. 2012=400,000 mbd. National Energy Strategy goal for = mbd – from where? Underlying problems: corruption, failure to invest in finding new reserves, production sharing with private firms prohibited by constitution; Transboundary Oil Agreement to explore and extract from deep waters on the Mexican/US border.

Optimism or Pessimism? New President, Enrique Peña Nieto with expert team in economy, energy and foreign affairs; Willingness to confront the concentrated wealth of the communications, telephone barons; Committed to opening all market sectors through TPP and Alliance of the Pacific BUT – insecurity remains a deep problem.

Thank you for your attention!