WARNING THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS DETAILED DESCRIPTIONS OF FIGHTS, RAPES, AND ROAD ACCIDENTS

Why you always wanted to devote your career to sequence analysis, but never fully realised it until today David Clarke School of Psychology University of Nottingham

Research students & new researchers Consider this approach for your thesis. It may give you new ways to answer your question, or new questions that cannot be answered with other methods. I am happy to help. Established researchers Do you want to collaborate on projects where this approach can add a new dimension?

The rationale

Of all truths relating to phenomena, the most valuable to us are those which relate to the order of their succession. On a knowledge of these is founded every reasonable anticipation of future facts, and whatever power we possess of influencing those facts to our advantage. John Stuart Mill, 1851

Motor Skill Model Perception Translation Motor responses Changes in outside world Motivation, goal SOCIAL SKILL

INDIVIDUAL PSYCHOLOGY I O Non- ?? SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY '

Sequence analysis can go where experiments cannot… news, biography, case-study, history, careers, relationships, wars - any area where the causes cannot be manipulated for one reason or another.

Problems as Game Trees toto time Past Future

Basic procedure

Time

ajpx b Discrete Event, Continuous Time

ajpx b aapqr Discrete Event, Fixed Time

ajpx b Discrete Event, Continuous Time aapqr Discrete Event, Fixed Time p j a q r z a c i Discontinuous Event, Event Time i.e. Pure (Mere?) Sequence

Stream of events through time

Parsing or unitising (Special concepts and techniques apply)

ajpiax Classification (Crucial step - special concepts and techniques apply)

ajpiax aj transition jp transition

ajpi ax a b c d....z....z abcd z SEQUITURS ANTECEDENTS bc

Contingency test (eg 2) shows rows and columns interact statistically, so there is a non-random sequence here.

Significantly over-represented transitions can be picked out, and presented in a flow diagram. Contingency test (eg 2) shows rows and columns interact statistically, so there is a non-random sequence here. A B C D

A few examples

SEQUENCE ANALYSIS OF COURTSHIP BEHAVIOR IN THE DIMORPHIC JUMPING SPIDER MAEVIA INCLEMENS (ARANEAE, SALTICIDAE)

APPLICATIONS INCLUDE Road accidents Violent incidents Family breakdown Human-computer interaction Escaping from fires Military operations Economic forecasting Restorative justice School disruption Anorexia nervosa Rape & sexual assault Mining safety Language acquisition Train & plane crashes Depression Voice disorders Stress Counselling Eye disease Occupational selection Automatic classification Drug abuse

But then the real fun starts …

Knots in chains The problem of higher order sequences A-B-C A-B-D (A-B, B-C, B-D)

A-B-C D-B-E (A-B, B-C, D-B, B-E) A-B-C D-B-E A-B-E - wrong D-B-C - wrong

A-B-C D-B-E

A-B-C-D * E-B-C-F * G-H-C-I * J-H-C-K (AB, BC, CD, EB, CF, GH, HC, CI, JH, CK) Gives 4 correct sequences and 12 others besides: ABCF, ABCI, ABCK, etc, etc.

A-B-C-D * E-B-C-F * G-H-C-I * J-H-C-K

ZERO ORDER Days to is for they have proposed I the it material of are its go studies the our of the following not over situation if the greater. FIRST ORDER Goes down here is not large feet are the happy days and so what is dead weight that many were constructed the channel was. THIRD ORDER We are going to see him is not correct to chuckle loudly and depart for home. George Miller, 1951

HOMOGENEITY The probabilities which link events are the same in different sequences STATIONARITY The probabilities which link events are constant - they do not drift over time

Detailed examples Pub fights

Schematic basis for the Logical Pathway Model.

The simplified forward empirical pathway map (cut-off pf =.15). All numbers in parentheses following an event refer to the percentage of the total number of incidents that involved that event.

The logical pathway model for the reported violent incidents.

Time-interval analysis ( Log-survivor function analysis)

12340 % Intervals >T 100 T

12340 % Intervals >T Log % Intervals >T 100 T T

12340 Clumped Over-spacedBursts & Pauses % Intervals >T Log % Intervals >T 100 T T

The log percentage survival without reoccurrence for initial incidents over a period of 26 weeks.

The log percentage survival without reoccurrence for initial incidents over a period of 15 days.

Rape

The incident has to be divided into blocks or phases to avoid looping, caused by common recurring events

X X X X X

X

Bedroom rapes, all cases, until victim notices offender.

Single bedroom rapes, from victims first awareness of offender until first physical contact

Single bedroom rapes, from first physical contact until first penetration

Multiple bedroom rapes, from first physical contact until first penetration - speech

Multiple bedroom rapes, from first physical contact until first penetration - sexual behaviour

Multiple bedroom rapes, from first penetration until last withdrawalcontrol and reorientation

Multiple bedroom rapes, from first penetration until last withdrawalsexual behaviour

Road accidents

Genetic algorithms etc...

The structured judgement method...

Pathways from problem descriptions to generalised explanations and to intervention Single case Multiple cases Description (a) Description (A) Explanation (b) Explanation (B) Intervention (c) Intervention (C)

Pathways from problem descriptions to generalised explanations and to intervention Single case Multiple cases Description (a) Description (A) Explanation (b) Explanation (B) Intervention (c) Intervention (C)

Pathways from problem descriptions to generalised explanations and to intervention Single case Multiple cases Description (a) Description (A) Explanation (b) Explanation (B) Intervention (c) Intervention (C)

Data Entry Screen (a)

It was early in the evening on a damp night in Winter. It was dark and streetlamps were lit. It had been raining lightly for between five and ten minutes. The rider (M,26) of a small Yamaha motorcycle (1) was travelling along a busy and wide urban A road with a 30mph limit. The road was wide enough for two lines of traffic in queues, and traffic was moving very slowly. Rider 1 travelled through some traffic lights on green at a crossroads, and was almost immediately confronted by stationary queuing traffic on the left hand side of the road ahead. He also saw that there was no traffic coming from the other direction, as this had stopped for a set of red lights around 200 yards distant. Rider 1 elected to use the opposite carriageway to overtake the queuing traffic ahead, and pulled out onto the offside to do this, passing at a speed of about 10mph. He started passing the traffic and was about to overtake a Peugeot 405 (2) that was queuing, when its driver (M,26), decided that he would U turn into a layby on the opposite side to pick up some chips from a shop there. His car was very nearly stationary, and although he looked in his rear view mirror, he did not check his offside door mirror or glance over his shoulder to check his blind spot. In addition, he only indicated his intention to turn once hed already started to do so. The motorcycle rider had no chance to avoid a collision, ran into the drivers side door of the car and was knocked off his machine, sustaining minor injuries. Driver 2 claimed that he had not looked in his side mirror as he thought that the opposing lane was clear, and hadnt considered that it might be used for overtaking purposes by any vehicle behind him. He was charged with driving without due care and attention, and failing to report an accident; hed not reported it to the police because he thought the motorcyclist wasnt badly injured. The results of these charges were not recorded. Prose Account Map Data Entry Screen (b)

Accidents at night with young drivers often arent a result of a lack of light, but are a result of voluntary risk taking (or attitudes).

Motorcycle riders are seldom to blame in car v. motorcycle accidents at junctions. The typical fault is a driver failing to see an approaching motorcycle which is in plain view.

A driver fails to see a motorcyclist in a ROWV accident It was early in the afternoon on a fine Spring day. The rider (M,44) of a Honda CBR1000 motorcycle was travelling along an unclassified urban road at around the 30mph limit. According to witnesses, he was not going above the speed limit and was displaying daytime lights. As he approached a junction ahead on the offside, he could see a Vauxhall Astra (2), driven by (F,63) waiting to turn right at the give way line to travel in the same direction as him. As he got to within 20 metres of the junction mouth, the car driver began to emerge, making her right turn. The motorcyclist braked heavily and steered nearside in an effort to get his bike between the nearside kerb and the turning car before he hit it. However, he was unsuccessful in this, and he hit the nearside of the car as it turned, causing a severe injury to his right hand that required two operations and several months off work. The Astra driver claimed that she had looked left, but had simply not seen the motorcyclist, despite the fact that visibility was good and the rider was displaying lights. She was charged with driving without due care and attention.

Older drivers have a problem seeing motorcyclists at junctions (so-called Looked but didnt see or LBDNS accidents…

Filtering quotes from drivers… Driver: …there was nothing by rights that should have come that side of my car. Driver :... he was on the wrong side of the road. Driver : There could be nothing coming from behind me because the car and lorry to my rear were stationary

Matrix forecasting

The end