Kenya – Politics Leonardo R. Arriola Associate Professor Department of Political Science University of California, Berkeley Prepared 4 March © UC Regents 2013

A research puzzle These slides were prepared for a general discussion on Kenyan politics in the Spring of 2013 just before the elections and present a research puzzle: Are Kenya politics really about ethnic conflict? Read the following articles and news sites for more context and background: Mueller, Susanne D "The Political Economy of Kenya's Crisis." Journal of Eastern African Studies 2 (2): The Political Economy of Kenya's Crisis Branch, Daniel, and Nic Cheeseman "Democratization, Sequencing, and State Failure in Africa: Lessons from Kenya." African Affairs 108 (430): 1-26.Democratization, Sequencing, and State Failure in Africa: Lessons from Kenya. de Smedt, Johan "'No Raila, No Peace!' Big Man Politics and Election Violence at the Kibera Grassroots." African Affairs 108 (433): No Raila, No Peace!' Big Man Politics and Election Violence at the Kibera Grassroots The Daily Nation elections page: For most slides, there are notes. Throughout, there are hyperlinks leading to further information. © UC Regents 2013

Daily Nation (October 1992) © UC Regents 2013

BBC (March 2013) © UC Regents 2013

Ethnic Balancing in Politics, © UC Regents 2013

2002 Election © UC Regents 2013

2007 Election © UC Regents 2013

2013 Election © UC Regents 2013

Vote Buying and Electoral Violence Source: Afrobarometer ( ) © UC Regents 2013

Vote Buying in 2002 & 2007 Source: Afrobarometer (2007 & 2011) © UC Regents 2013

Money underpins political relationships Politician Donor Voter © UC Regents 2013

Politician Donor Voter Business donors hedge: give money to multiple candidates, regardless of ethnicity or party, to ensure their influence. Money underpins political relationships © UC Regents 2013

Money underpins political relationships Politician Donor Voter Politicians buy votes: opposition politicians need money to induce support and turnout among voters. © UC Regents 2013

Money underpins political relationships Politician Donor Voter Politicians buy endorsements: opposition politicians need money for cross-ethnic endorsements from other politicians. © UC Regents 2013

Money underpins political relationships Politician Donor Voter Politicians buy endorsements: opposition politicians need money for cross-ethnic endorsements from other politicians. © UC Regents 2013

Afrobarometer survey data from Kenya (N≈2,000 respondents) Vote Buying in 2007 Most demographic factors are poor predictors of vote buying. Examples: age, sex, education level, rural vs. urban During the last national election in 2007, how often, if ever did a candidate or someone from a political party offer you something, like food or a gift or money, in return for your vote? © UC Regents 2013

Vote Buying in 2007 Best predictors of vote buying relate to income, behavior, and location. Unemployed status: likelihood doubles Violent act: likelihood doubles Violent district: likelihood diminishes Ethnicity: likelihood varies Province: likelihood varies Afrobarometer survey data from Kenya (N≈2,000 respondents) © UC Regents 2013

Predicted probability of experiencing vote buying for the “average” respondent: 36 year old male living in a rural area Vote Buying in 2007 © UC Regents 2013

Vote Buying across Provinces in 2007 Source: Afrobarometer (2011) © UC Regents 2013

Vote Buying across Ethnic Groups in 2007 Source: Afrobarometer (2011) © UC Regents 2013

Vote Buying across Ethnic Groups: 2002 vs Source: Afrobarometer (2007 & 2011) © UC Regents 2013

Violence ( ) Source: ACLED © UC Regents 2013

International Criminal Court International Criminal Court (ICC) charged four Kenyans with crimes against humanity Uhuru Kenyatta MP/Minister Francis Muthaura Civil Service Head* William Ruto MP/Minister Joshua arap Sang Radio Host Kenya’s Post-Election Violence in 2008 More than 1,000 killed and some 600,000 displaced in a three month period © UC Regents 2013 *Case dropped by ICC 11 March March 2013

Elite Organization of Violence in Kenya “The infrastructure of violence was financed and sustained mainly by local politicians and businesspeople to support costs such as transport of attackers, weapons and other logistics” - Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, On the Brink of the Precipice (PEV Report) (2008) Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, On the Brink of the Precipice (PEV Report)2008 KNCHR identified over 200 individuals who allegedly coordinated the violence, including 21 MPs, 44 businesspeople, and hosts at 5 radio stations © UC Regents 2013

Violence (Jan-Feb 2013) Source: ACLED © UC Regents 2013

Nairobi Source: Open Street Map © UC Regents 2013

Nairobi Source: Open Street Map © UC Regents 2013

Nairobi: Tweeting the Presidential Debate Source: M. Graham (2013) © UC Regents 2013

Multiethnic Coalitions For more on multiethnic coalitions, parties and opposition politics, see Leonardo R. Arriola, Multiethnic Coalitions in Africa: Business Financing of Opposition Election Campaigns. New York: Cambridge University Press. Multiethnic Coalitions in Africa: Business Financing of Opposition Election Campaigns rarriola/home/book rarriola/home/book © UC Regents 2013

CREDITS Understanding the Horn of Africa © UC Regents 2013

Understanding the Horn of Africa An online curriculum project of the Center for African Studies, University of California, BerkeleyCenter for African Studies This material was developed under a Title VI International Research and Studies grant from the U.S. Department of Education. However, the content does not necessarily represent the policy or views of the U.S. Department of Education, or imply endorsement by the Federal Government.International Research and Studies Principal Investigator: Leonardo Arriola Project Coordinator: Martha Saavedra Project Assistant: Tami Driver, Web Development: Kim Carl and Howie Lan Web Designer and Graphics: Casondra Sobieralski Research assistance: Chelsea Johnson and David Dow © UC Regents 2013