1. Political Barometer Survey: Political Parties, Presidential Aspirants
Prepared by Ipsos Synovate Kenya
Release Date: 2nd October 2012
Synovate is now Ipsos Synovate
© 2012 Ipsos.  All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

2. Contents Political party support Presidential candidate preference
Public opinion on runoff elections

3. Methodology

4. July/August survey – face to face, sample of 2,000
Survey Methodology
Dates of polling
24th – 28th September 2012
2,229 respondents
Sample Size
Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size)
Sampling methodology
Universe
Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban
and Rural areas
Data collection
methodology
Computer Aided Telephonic Interview (CATI)
Sampling error
+/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level
July/August survey – face to face, sample of 2,000

5. Sample Frame statistics Population Census as at 2009
Sample Structure Statistics
Province
Sample Frame statistics
(September 2012) %
Population Census as at 2009
Adults (18 years +)
Central
292 13
2,548,038
Coast
196 9
1,711,549
Eastern
333 15
2,907,293
Nairobi
234 10
2,042,770
North Eastern
106 5
929,158
Nyanza
2,547,980
Rift Valley
549 25
4,795,482
Western
227
1,980,090
TOTAL
2,229
100
19,462,360

6. Political Party Support

7. Political Parties Act Registration of political parties
According to the office of the registrar of political parties, there are 51 registered political parties in Kenya today
Various political parties / presidential aspirants have since the beginning of the year staged a launch or re-launch
Political Party
Date of Launch / Activity
URP
15th January
POA
12th February
RBK
22nd April
UDFP
2nd May
TNA
20th May
New Ford Kenya
24th June
Narc Kenya
3rd July (campaign secretariat)
ODM
5th July (campaign secretariat)
Federal Party of Kenya
20th August
Narc
2nd September

8. “Which political party do you feel closest to if any?”
Political party support
(analysis of those who mention any party)
“Which political party do you feel closest to if any?”
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

9. “Which political party do you feel closest to if any
“Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” (by total sample)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

10. “Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” Time Series
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

11. “Which political party do you feel closest to if any
“Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” (by total sample)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

12. Presidential Candidate Preference

13. “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?”
(By Total)
July 2012 survey
33%
September 2012 survey
23% 7% 7%
12% 9% 4% 1% 1% 2%
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

14. Presidential Candidate Choice -Time Series
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

15. “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?”
(By Province)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

16. Presidential Aspirant Support vis a vis Political Party Support
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

17. Run-off Analysis

18. The New Constitution stipulates that “a candidate shall be declared President if the candidate receives more than half (over 50 per cent plus one) of all votes cast in the election” and these survey results indicate the probability of a runoff election

19. “Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between...”
Proportion of those undecided is too high for the run off results below to be conclusive. The undecided respondents have a potential to change the political landscape once they decide and could swing the vote either way.
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

20. “Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta”?(by Province)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

21. Gain: Loss Matrix in a Runoff Elections
Supporters Strategic Voting Decisions: Raila vs. Uhuru
In a run-off, Raila would;
Maintain 94% of his supporters from round 1 elections
In a run-off, Uhuru would
Maintain 98% of his supporters from round 1 elections
Benefit most from William Ruto’s (81%), Kalonzo Musyoka’s (63%), Martha Karua’s (53%) and Musalia Mudavadi’s (58%) supporters
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)
April 2012 survey

22. “Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka?” (by Province)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

23. Gain: Loss Matrix in a Runoff Elections
Supporters Strategic Voting Decisions: Raila vs. Kalonzo
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)
April 2012 survey

24. “Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between Raila Odinga and Musalia Mudavadi?” (by Province)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

25. Gain: Loss Matrix in a Runoff Elections
Supporters Strategic Voting Decisions: Raila vs. Mudavadi
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)
April 2012 survey

26. “Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between Raila Odinga and William Ruto?” (by Province)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

27. Gain: Loss Matrix in a Runoff Elections
Supporters Strategic Voting Decisions: Raila vs. Ruto
Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)
April 2012 survey

28. Change in landscape attributed to;
Conclusions
Change in landscape attributed to;
Supposed announcement that KANU would support ODM
Prof Saitoti’s demise as leader of PNU
The outcome of the by-elections in Kangema, Kajiado and Ndhiwa
Defections or “threatened” defections
Key factors to influence
Final list of candidates on ballot box
Running mates
Pre-election party alliances
Voter turn out

29. What next from Ipsos Synovate?

30. The French Elections 2012 (Round One)
Sample size (n=1,000)
Data collection methodology (telephonic interviewing)

31. The French Elections 2012 (Run-Off Elections )
Sample size (n=1,000)
Data collection methodology (telephonic interviewing)

32. Ipsos Synovate will continue conducting political polling in Kenya
Key focus over next 6 months are issue based polls
Ipsos Global supports Ipsos Kenya in Opinion Polls
Ipsos Global President in Kenya 4th to 6th October 2012

33. Questions? Comments?

34. For further information contact:
Margaret Ireri
Managing Director
Victor Rateng
Project Manager - Opinion Polls
Follow us on