Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain (Facultad de Ciencias – UR LA32/LA26) Ines Camilloni (Facultad de Ciencias – UBA LA26)

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IN THE SUMMER SEASON IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti CENTRO DE PREVISÃO.

Advertisements

The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information.

Regional climate change over southern South America: evolution of mean climate and extreme events Silvina A. Solman CIMA (CONICET-UBA) Buenos Aires ARGENTINA.

LA_06: Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation Measures for the Water Resources Sector due to Extreme Events under Climate Change Conditions in Central America.

Februar 2003 Workshop Kopenhagen1 Assessing the uncertainties in regional climate predictions of the 20 th and 21 th century Andreas Hense Meteorologisches.

Downscaling of Global Climate Model (GCM) A.K.M. Saiful Islam Associate Professor, IWFM Coordinator, Climate Change Study Cell Bangladesh University of.

Matilde Rusticucci, Olga Penalba Assistant Researchers: Mariana Barrucand, María Laura Bettolli Post-Doc: Bárbara Tencer, Madeleine Renom, PhD Students:

© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Projections over Mainland China under SRES A1B and RCP4.5 Using PRECIS 2.0 Changgui Wang, Richard Jones.

Global Hydrology Modelling: Running Multiple Ensembles with the Campus Grid Simon Gosling Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading.

Task: (ECSK06) Regional downscaling Regional modelling with HadGEM3-RA driven by HadGEM2-AO projections National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR)/KMA.

© Crown copyright Met Office Regional/local climate projections: present ability and future plans Research funded by Richard Jones: WCRP workshop on regional.

The causes of extreme rainfall in East Africa: insights from observed data and GCMs Emily Black, Julia Slingo and Ken Sperber.

Climate Change and Malaysia

Climate modeling Current state of climate knowledge – What does the historical data (temperature, CO 2, etc) tell us – What are trends in the current observational.

Earth Systems Science Chapter 6 I. Modeling the Atmosphere-Ocean System 1.Statistical vs physical models; analytical vs numerical models; equilibrium vs.

Dominant large-scale patterns influencing the interannual variability of precipitation in South America as depicted by IPCC-AR4 Models Carolina Vera (1),

PHYC Environmental Physics Climate, Climate Change Nuclear Power and the Alternatives.

Pacific Northwest Climate Model Scenarios 2008 Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Eric Salathé Philip.

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management Akm Saiful Islam Lecture-4: Module- 3 Regional Climate.

Statistical Projection of Global Climate Change Scenarios onto Hawaiian Rainfall Oliver Timm, International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, University.

Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate.

The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information.

Current and planned Project with the Regional Climate Model Regional climate simulations over southern South America and sensitivity experiments Silvina.

Climate data, Trends and Scenarios in Sri Lanka AS-12 Senaka Basnayake Center for Climate Change Studies (CCCS) Department of Meteorology Colombo Sri Lanka.

South Eastern Latin America LA26: Impact of GC on coastal areas of the Rio de la Plata: Sea level rise and meteorological effects LA27: Building capacity.

Rainfall & Temperature Scenarios for Sri Lanka under the anticipated Climate Change B.R.S.B. Basnayake 1, Janaka Ratnasiri 2, J.C. Vithanage 2 1 Centre.

Regional Climate Change Scenarios for India and Implications for Water Availability Issues K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado,

Uncertainty in climate scenarios when downscaling with an RCM M. Tadross, B. Hewitson, W Gutowski & AF07 collaborators Water Research Commission of South.

Asia-Pacific Forum for Collaborative Modeling on Climate Policy Assessment October 25, AIM Model Presentation 1.Brief introduction of the AIM 2.Projection.

1 Climate Ensemble Simulations and Projections for Vietnam using PRECIS Model Presented by Hiep Van Nguyen Main contributors: Mai Van Khiem, Tran Thuc,

Climate variability, trends and scenarios for Mexico and Argentina. Cecilia Conde, Marta Vinocur, Carlos Gay, Roberto Seiler. AIACC LA-29 Integrated Assessment.

Preliminary Results of Global Climate Simulations With a High- Resolution Atmospheric Model P. B. Duffy, B. Govindasamy, J. Milovich, K. Taylor, S. Thompson,

1 CUTTING-EDGE CLIMATE SCIENCE AND SERVICES Geoff Love.

Regional Climate Change Scenario supporting activities for studies on detection, impacts assessments and mitigation Jose A. Marengo Climate Studies Group.

Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS J28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change Canada Water Accounts AET estimates for.

Climate change projections for Vietnam from CMIP5 simulations Ramasamy Suppiah 29 November 2012.

Simulation of present-day climate of tropical Africa Using the Hadley Centre regional climate modeling system AIACC AF 20 Project Andre F. KAMGA, Gregory.

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support.

Projection of Global Climate Change. Review of last lecture Rapid increase of greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) since 1750: far exceed pre-industrial.

Role of Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) in climate change policy analysis The Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM) An ABARE-CSIRO joint initiative.

I st Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Workshop San José Costa Rica Mayo 2003 LA-06 Climate change Water resources Extreme events.

Global and SE U.S. Assessment of Precipitation: Comparison of Model Simulations with Reanalysis-based Observations Eduardo Ponce Mojica Polytechnic University.

Climate Change : The State of Knowledge Bryson Bates Leader, Pathways to Adaptation Theme 22 April 2009 Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship.

Southern South American climate trends Inés Camilloni – Moira Doyle University of Buenos Aires Second AIACC Regional Workshop for Latin America and the.

Climate Change Scenario Analysis in the Future Over Climate Change Scenario Analysis in the Future Over western of China Ying Xu Xuejie Gao Yun Gao National.

Climate Scenario and Uncertainties in the Caribbean Chen,Cassandra Rhoden,Albert Owino Anthony Chen,Cassandra Rhoden,Albert Owino Climate Studies Group.

Sea Surface Temperature Changes & Biogeographic Ranges of Commercial Marine Species Canadian Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Program Project A515 &

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources G.B. Pant INDIAN INSTITUTE.

Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over the Indian region Potential Impacts: Water Resources Water Resources Agriculture.

COST 723 WORKSHOP – SOFIA, BULGARIA MAY 2006 USE OF RADIOSONDE DATA FOR VALIDATION OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING SIMULATIONS OVER CYPRUS Panos Hadjinicolaou.

The evolution of climate modeling Kevin Hennessy on behalf of CSIRO & the Bureau of Meteorology Tuesday 30 th September 2003 Canberra Short course & Climate.

Monitoring and Modeling Climate Change Are oceans getting warmer? Are sea levels rising? To answer questions such as these, scientists need to collect.

1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Global Climate Models, and California Climate Change Impacts.

The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information.

GCM simulations for West Africa: Validation against observations and projections for future change G.Jenkins, A.Gaye, A. Kamga, A. Adedoyin, A. Garba,

High resolution extreme temperature scenarios over North America NARCCAP 4 th users’ workshop Apr , 2012 Guilong Li Atmospheric Science and Application.

Climatology of the Río de la Plata Basin: short and long term variability Mario Bidegain Facultad de Ciencias Universidad de la Republica Uruguay Workshop.

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Agriculture: Using NASA Models for Regional Applications Radley Horton 1, Cynthia Rosenzweig 2, and David.

Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses to climate change, and their linkages (IPCC, 2007).

Anomalies of global air temperature during the last Millennium, relative to the period

Validation of GCM, and the need of High resolution atmospheric and hydrological model Vicente Barros and Mariano Re San José de Costa Rica 28 May 2003.

Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas Sumant Nigam

Laurent Li Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL/CNRS, Paris

Recent Climate Change Modeling Results

Climate Modeling General Circulation Models

Breaking group 1B Some lessons for selecting and applying methods and models for constructing climate change scenarios Participants of the side meeting.

Modeling the Atmos.-Ocean System

South Eastern Latin America

Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research

Presentation transcript:

Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain (Facultad de Ciencias – UR LA32/LA26) Ines Camilloni (Facultad de Ciencias – UBA LA26) AIACC Latin America/Caribbean Regional Workshop May 2003, San Jose, Costa Rica

1.What are GCMs? 2.What GCMs outputs were selected from IPCC DDC? 3. What variables were selected for this study? 4. Preliminary conclusions for southeastern South America OUTLINE

What are GCMs? What they do? Simulate the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Growth in population, energy demand, changes in technological and land/cover Greenhouse gases emissions Atmospheric GHGs concentrations Baseline and future climate projections Energy-economy models Carbon cycle and other and other chemical models Climate models

What are GCMs? What they work? GCMs are based on the known laws of physics describing the transport of mass and energy, depicting the global climate using a three dimensional grid over the globe.

What GCM outputs were selected from IPCC DDC ? SRES A2 forced runs: CCCMA, CSIRO, GFDL, HadCM3, NCAR-PCM

MODELPERIOD HADCM CSIRO-Mk NCAR-PCM CGCM ECHAM

Region selected for this study Southeastern Southamerica: 20° to 47° South 45° to 67° West

What variables were selected for this study ? Sea level pressure (as indicator of goodness of GCMs to reproduce the general circulation in the region) Rainfall (mean monthly and annual values) and annual cycle) Temperature (monthly mean and annual values)

Spatial Correlation for Sea Level Pressure between GCMs outputs and NCEP reanalysis

What climate baseline scenarios for SLP the GCMs estimate?

Sea Level Pressure anomalies: GCMs vs.NCEP reanalysis CSIRO-NCEP ( )HADCM3-NCEP ( ) ECHAM4-NCEP ( ) NCEP ( )

What climate baseline scenario for rainfall the GCMs estimate?

HADCM3 ( ) GCMs rainfall anomalies (mm/day) CSIRO ( ) ECHAM4 ( )

Rainfall annual cycle: GCMs vs. Climatology

What climate baseline scenario for temperature the GCMs estimate?

Global temperature change ( )

Precipitation and Temperature Changes Argentina 9 GCMs ( vs )

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS General Conclusion Very good performance of GCMs in temperature and SLP, poor to fair in rainfall (underestimation in the region), but improved performance respect to old GCMs versions Future actions 3 GCMs will be selected to construct climate scenarios (HADLEY, ECHAM and CSIRO. The selected variables will be: SLP (to estimate surface winds), precipitation and temperature. Statistical and/or dynamical downscalling, for selected locations, will be applied to future climate scenarios.