1. Sea Surface Temperature Changes & Biogeographic Ranges of Commercial Marine Species Canadian Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Program Project A515 & WWF Gail L. Chmura 1, Lou Van Guelpen 2, Gerhard W. Pohle 2, Sarah Vereault 1, and Elizabeth Flanary 1 1 McGill University & Global Environment and Climate Change Centre 2 Huntsman Marine Science Centre / Atlantic Reference Centre Northeast US Continental Shelf Newfoundland – Labrador Shelf Scotian Shelf www.geog.mcgill.ca/climatechange/ www.wwf.ca

2. February August For each species the “thermal niche” or “bioclimate envelope” was determined from its geographical distribution (water depths & range in latitude) with respect to satellite-derived (AVHRR) data on sea surface temperatures. We determined the winter minimum and summer maximum. We determined future temperatures by adding the change image to this one.

3. Plotted from temperatures reported in the literature. Plotted from temperatures derived from distribution data. Laminaria digitata – reported thermal niche (or range) is -2 to 22°C

4. Scenarios of Forcing Factors Used – from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) B2 forecasts low population growth and more concern for the environment A2 forecasts high population growth and less concern for the environment greater cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases (& sulphate aerosols) WWW.IPCC.ch

5. 2 periods used: 1960-1999 = baseline 2070-2099 = 4°C avg global warming Plus: 2030-2059 = 2°C avg global warming - see website New 2005 We used output from global circulation / global climate models – actually Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs)

6. AOGCMs vary in their number of layers and algorithms for the processes and transfers among the layers. Hadley Centre Using geospatial statistics we downscaled the coarse output of each AOGCM

7. AOGCMs vary in their spatial resolution. GFDL (US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Spatial Resolution of Models (°lat & long) CCCma 3.75 x 3.75 CCSR/NIES 5.6 x 5.6 5.6 x 5.6 CSIRO 3.2 x 5.6 GFDL 2.25 x 3.75

8. avg Feb SST (or Aug) over the period 2070-2099 change in SSTs for that month (at the center of each pixel) avg Feb SST (or Aug) over the baseline period 1960-1999 - =

9. change in SSTs “downscaled” GFDL grid in vector format. GFDL changefield for February

10. A2 B2 February CCCmaCSIROCCSRGFDL A2 B2 August Greater differences among models than between scenarios. change in temp. Change = 2099 minus the baseline:

11. A2 B2 February CCCmaCSIROCCSRGFDL A2 B2 August

12. + February AVHRR SST GFDL prediction for Feb SST 2079-2099. interpolated (downscaled) change in SSTs GFDL changefield for Feb = real-time satellite data, averaged, & 9 km resolution future sea surface temperatures