NO TIME TO WASTE STATES IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER’S PATH TO ITS DELTA REGION HAVE ABOUT 2 WEEKS TO AVERT FLOOD AND HEALTH CARE DISASTERS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

THE CRITICAL TIME WEDNESDAY, MAY 11 THROUGH MONDAY, MAY 23, 2011

MEMPHIS:THE RIVER CRESTED AT NEARLY 48 FT ON MAY 9, 2011

CITIES AND DATES WHERE THE RIVER WILL CREST AND LIKELY FLOOD HELENA—MAY 12 GREENSVILLE—MAY 16 VICKSBURG—MAY 19 NATCHEZ—BATON ROUGE— MAY 22 NEW ORLEANS—MAY 23

FLOOD HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS ) SO MUCH WATER DISCHARGED WITHIN A RIVER’S DRAINAGE BASIN THAT IT CAN NOT BE ACCOMMODATED SAFELY WITHIN THE FLOODPLAIN EROSION AND SCOUR LANDSLIDES (E.G., MUDFLOWS) DEBRIS

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN FLOODS INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS STRUCTURE & CONTENTS DAMAGED BY WATER WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH CARE PROBLEMS) EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

DAMAGEDAMAGE UNACCEPTABLE RISK INJURIES DEATHS LOSS OF FUNCTION HEALTH NEEDS ECONOMIC LOSS HEALTH NEEDS ECONOMIC LOSS RISKRISK

1) dozens of flooded towns and cities, 2) inundated homes and businesses, 3) lost crops and productivity of farm land, 4) loss of function of roads, THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF THE MOUNTING LOSSES

5) l oss of function (e.g., barges, bridges and utility systems) 6) losses associated with thousands of evacuees 7) regional business interruption 8) loss of tourism

9) long-term clean-up (removal of debris, sewage, garbage, 10- million sandbags) 10) drying out of houses and businesses and their contents, 11) rebuilding of houses and levees. THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF THE MOUNTING LOSSES

12) disposal of damaged home systems (e.g., refrigerators), 13) restoration of water quality in wells and municipal water systems 14) resumption of schools and universities. THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF THE LOSSES

15) restoration of millions of acres of prime farm land. 16) rebuilding of cities such as Memphis (costs could reach in the billions). THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF THE MOUNTING LOSSES

FLOODING IS NOT THE ONLY THREAT SO ARE THE GROWING POTENTIAL HEALTH CARE NEEDS

DEBRIS-LADEN WATER; MAY 9TH

THE WATER IS A POTENTIAL HEALTH RISK The Mississippi River flood water is contaminated by the pesticides, industrial pollutants, and debris acquired along the long trip to the delta, and is now full of snakes and other animals.

TAKING A PAGE FROM LONG EXPERIENCE IN THE NETHERLANDS, … NEW STRATEGIC ACTIONS ARE BEING INTEGRATED WITH CONVENTIONAL STRATEGIES TO REDUCE THE RISK

OBJECTIVE: Give the river more space so that it can flood safely.

EXAMPLE 1 Make the floodplain wider by moving levees INLAND.

EXAMPLE 2 Lower the floodplain by EXCAVATION so that it will hold more water safely.

EXAMPLE 3 Add a NEW channel (i.e., a high-water channel) to reroute overflow water away from the river to temporary storage areas (e.g., manmade lakes).

CONVENTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES AND STRATEGIES FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION

CONVENTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES) RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES) RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) HISTORICAL DATABASES MAPS: 100-YEAR AND 500-YEAR FLOODS FLOOD DISASTER SCENARIOS DRONE PLANES HAZMAT MANAGEMENT HISTORICAL DATABASES MAPS: 100-YEAR AND 500-YEAR FLOODS FLOOD DISASTER SCENARIOS DRONE PLANES HAZMAT MANAGEMENT

STRATEGIES FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION PURPOSE PREVENTION PROTECTION LAND USE CONTROL PURPOSE PREVENTION PROTECTION LAND USE CONTROL STRATEGY WATERSHED MANAGEMENT FLOOD CONTROL (DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS) HAZARD MAPS (RISK ZONES) STRATEGY WATERSHED MANAGEMENT FLOOD CONTROL (DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS) HAZARD MAPS (RISK ZONES)

THREE GORGES DAM, CHINA: FLOOD PREVENTION THE GREATEST ENGINEERING FEAT IN CHINA SINCE THE GREAT WALL

THREE GORGES DAM: 2309 M LONG, 190 M HIGH, 15 M THICK

FLOOD PREVENTION ON THAMES RIVER: LONDON, ENGLAND

STRATEGIES FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION PURPOSE SITE MODIFICATION ALERT/WARNING MONITORING RISK ZONES IMPROVED PREPAREDNESS PURPOSE SITE MODIFICATION ALERT/WARNING MONITORING RISK ZONES IMPROVED PREPAREDNESS STRATEGY EMBANKMENTS; SANDBAGS EVACUATION STREAM GAGUES; DRONE PLANES YEAR FLOOD MAPS SCENARIOS STRATEGY EMBANKMENTS; SANDBAGS EVACUATION STREAM GAGUES; DRONE PLANES YEAR FLOOD MAPS SCENARIOS

SAND BAGS: SITE MODIFICATION IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN 2.5 MILLION SAND BAGS REDUCED LOSSES IN THE 1992 FLOOD DISASTER.

STRATEGIES FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION PURPOSE RISK ZONES IMPROVE PREPAREDNESS ENVVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION (E.G., HAZ MAT) PURPOSE RISK ZONES IMPROVE PREPAREDNESS ENVVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION (E.G., HAZ MAT) STRATEGY 100 to 500 YEAR FLOOD MAPS DISASTER SCENARIOS OIL SPILL CONTAINMENT AND RECOVERY STRATEGY 100 to 500 YEAR FLOOD MAPS DISASTER SCENARIOS OIL SPILL CONTAINMENT AND RECOVERY