National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 8 May 2012

Outline Current drought status and how we got here David Zierden, Florida Climate Center Stream flows and ground water status Brian McCallum, US Geological Survey Outlook David Zierden, FCC, FSU Streamflow forecasts Jeff Dobur, SE River Forecast Center El Niño phase forecasts Klaus Wolter, U Colorado, Climate Diagnostics Center International Research Institute for Climate and Society Summary and discussion

Current drought status from Drought Monitor

Cumulative Rainfall Deficits Past 30 days Past 180 days

7-day Rainfall Totals

Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: Previous Month:

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: Previous month:

Lake Lanier Inflows Chestatee near Dahlonega ( ) Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( )

Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

5-Day Precipitation Forecast

7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

Precipitation Outlook 1-month 3-month (MAM)

U.S. Drought Outlook

Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany

Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany

Multivariate ENSO Forecast Although ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next couple of months, the latest MEI forecast suggests a surprisingly strong tilt in the odds towards La Niña later this year Source: Klaus Wolter MonthsP La NiñaP El Niño MJ % JA %12% SO %09% ND %00%

Most models predict neutral conditions to continue through the summer About 40% of models forecast El Niño to develop in the fall

Summary Recent rains have provided some relief to short term drought, but streamflows and groundwater levels remain critical Rain expected in the next 7 days should be sustain crops, but will not likely recharge reservoirs, streams, and groundwater There is a very high likelihood that streamflows will be below normal for the next three months We are currently in a Neutral phase, which is expected to continue though the summer There are contradictory forecasts for the fall, with 2 of 5 climate models predicting the development of El Niño and the multivariate ENSO index forecast showing more than 7 of 10 odds that La Niña will develop Suggestion: Because water supplies are already low, it would be prudent to prepare for another La Niña though we have some hope that El Niño will develop and bring fall and winter rains

References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Brian McCallum, USGS Jeffry Dobur, SERFC Moderator: Keith Ingramm SECC Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring Groundwater monitoring

Thanks for joining us! Next briefing: Tuesday, May 22, 1:00 pm EDT