1. 2013 Weather Outlook Dealing with Drought Workshop February 12, 2013
Drought Update
Dealing with Drought Workshop
February 12, 2013
Hello. I’m Mary Knapp, the State Climatologist, based at Kansas State University, in the Department of Agronomy in Manhattan. Sorry I couldn’t be there in person. I’d like to give a brief update of drought conditions and the outlook through early summer.
K-State Dept. of Agronomy

2. Droughts in the Past 2013 Weather Outlook
Here is a look at past droughts from a project by Anthony Layzell, at the Kansas Geological Survey. This graph shows a reconstruction of drought periods from 800 to the present. The work is based on tree-ring data validated by other sources such as sediment deposits. Dark grey columns indicate extended drought periods of up to 75 years. The last two narrower columns reference the “Dust Bowl” of the 30s and the drought in the 1950s. For state-wide droughts, the 5-year period ending in 1956 has the greatest cumulative deficit. In Sedgwick county, that deficit exceeds 66 inches.
From: A thousand years of drought and climatic variability in Kansas:
Implications for water resources management
by Anthony L. Layzell, KGS Open File Report
K-State Dept. of Agronomy

3. Kansas Conditions 2013 Weather Outlook
Currently, all of the state is in severe to exceptional drought as reported in the US Drought Monitor. The Drought Monitor incorporates a number of drought measurements, including Palmer Drought Severity Index, Soil Moisture data, and stream flow data, for a combined picture of the drought situation. Exceptional drought, which covers a good portion of Western and South Central KS is the most severe category. If you are in D4, that doesn’t mean conditions can’t get worse, just that the scale is as low as it goes. The longer a region is in D4 conditions the greater the impacts.
K-State Dept. of Agronomy

4. Drought Outlook 2013 Weather Outlook
This is an outlook of drought conditions through the end of April. Unfortunately, the outlook for all of KS and much of the Plains is for persistence. An area of the desert SW where you see the green/brown bars might have some improvement. However, impacts are not likely to improve greatly. Additional discouraging news can be seen in the areas of Texas where drought is expected to develop. Most of our Spring moisture depends on a flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico up through Texas and Oklahoma.
K-State Dept. of Agronomy

5. Precipitation 2013 Weather Outlook
The left hand map shows the precipitation over the last year (from Feb 8, 2012 through Feb 7, 2013). The right hand map shows the percent of normal for the same period. Note the large area of Western KS that saw 10 inches or less over the period. Even in the wettest area of SE KS (Cherokee County) the inches is at or slightly below normal for the period. Most of the state saw less than 75% of normal. This, coupled with the much warmer than normal temperatures, has fueled our current drought situation.
K-State Dept. of Agronomy

6. Vegetative Conditions
2013 Weather Outlook
Vegetative Conditions
The latest vegetative condition map, produced by Kevin Price and his graduate student Nan, show above average photosynthetic activity from SW KS into Southeastern KS. Areas to the south and east of the line have had warmer temperatures. An exception to the increased photosynthetic activity can be seen in the Harper and Barber counties, where drier conditions have limited any photosynthetic activity. This increased activity is NOT a positive. The photosynthetic activity is NOT extreme, but IS an indication of water use/loss in a time period when most of the available moisture should be going to fill the soil profile, and to produce runoff to fill surface water supplies.
K-State Dept. of Agronomy

7. Additional Moisture Needed
2013 Weather Outlook
Additional Moisture Needed
This map indicates the amount of moisture needed to bring the Palmer Drought Index into the neutral range. Southwest KS has the lowest value, needing about 3 inches. However, it is important to note that average Feb/Mar precipitation in Southwest KS is about ½ that at 1.66 inches. Average April precipitation is 1.63 inches. These averages are based on 1895 to 2011 data.
K-State Dept. of Agronomy

8. Spring Outlook 2013 Weather Outlook
Unfortunately, the outlook isn’t encouraging. Areas in green indicate an increased probability of above normal precipitation, while those in brown have an increased chance of below normal precipitation. White indicates chances are equal for all three possibilities. The Spring Outlook for Feb-April is tilted towards drier than normal for the western half of the state, and equally likely to be above or below average in the eastern half.
K-State Dept. of Agronomy

9. Early Summer Precipitation Outlook
2013 Weather Outlook
Early Summer Precipitation Outlook
Stretching the outlook into early summer isn’t any more encouraging. All but the NE corner of the state has a tendency towards drier than average. Particularly discouraging is the strong trend for drier than normal conditions in the Southern Plains. Again, much of our moisture is dependent on inflow from the Gulf of Mexico. If it isn’t raining in Oklahoma/Texas, it is unlikely that we’ll see at or above normal precipitation in KS.
K-State Dept. of Agronomy

10. K-State Research & Extension
2013 Weather Outlook
Why?
Transition in the ENSO
Currently neutral ENSO signal
Expected El Niño hasn’t developed
Neutral conditions to continue for the Spring
Why does the Climate Prediction Center have the outlooks that they do? The ENSO – El Nino/Southern Oscillation -- is a strong predictor of global patterns. It is currently in a neutral phase, with a tilt towards cooler than average Pacific water temperatures. During a cooler phase (La Nina), we have a greater tendency to hotter/drier conditions. This is particularly true during the summer.
K-State Research & Extension
K-State Dept. of Agronomy

11. SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast Issued 3 February 2013
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts below-average SSTs during N. Hemisphere winter , and a gradual increase in SST anomalies into summer 2013.
This shows the latest ENSO conditions. In order to be in an El Nino/La Nina, conditions need to be positive or negative 0.5 oC for at least three months. In the Fall, conditions were bumping up against the El Nino phase, but dropped rapidly until the present conditions which are just short of La Nina. The encouraging aspect is the models indicate a gradual warming trend, rather than the continued drop into La Nina conditions.

12. Sites to Remember Climate Prediction Center Forecasts
2013 Weather Outlook
International Grains Program
11/24/2018
Sites to Remember
Climate Prediction Center Forecasts
Kansas Geological Survey
USDA Joint Agricultural Weather
National Weather Service
Weather Data Library
Here are a list of sites where you can get updated information. The Climate Prediction Center has updates on the seasonal outlooks, the ENSO cycle and the Drought Monitor.
The Kansas Geological Survey site has the link to Anthony Layzell’s research paper. I’ve included USDA Joint Agricultural Weather because it includes weather and crop condition reports not only for the US, but also around the world, including South America, Asia, Russia, and Australia. The National Weather Service, weather.gov, provides updates on current conditions and forecasts. It is a great source for hourly forecasts that will be important as we move into fire season. Finally, I have the link to the Weather Data Library. Our site includes access to the automated weather stations and monthly precipitation information, as well as links to all of the above sites.
Weather Data Library, K-State Research & Extension
K-State Dept. of Agronomy 12

13. Kansas State University Manhattan, KS 66506 PH: 785 532-7019
International Grains Program
2013 Weather Outlook
11/24/2018
Mary Knapp
Weather Data Library
1703 Throckmorton
Kansas State University
Manhattan, KS 66506
PH:
URL:
Finally, here is my contact information. If you have additional questions or would like more information, please don’t hesitate to let me know.
K-State Dept. of Agronomy
Weather Data Library, K-State Research & Extension 13