1. Apalachicola-Chattahoochee- Flint River Basin Outlook National Integrated Drought Information System ACF Pilot Project

2. Process Small group put Outlook Statement together Circulate over weekend, complete by Tuesday, November 23 rd Who should issue the statement?  NIDIS – ACF Pilot Project? (With list of participating groups)  A small group of institutions, e.g. SECC, State Climatologists, NOAA-NIDIS? Length: ~2 pages

3. Summary Fall and winter are likely to be relatively warm and dry; 80 to 90% confidence. Spring rains are likely to begin 1 to 2 weeks early in lower ACF basin; 60 to 80% confidence. There is a 50% probability that La Niña conditions will last 2 years. The NIDIS ACF pilot project will issue monthly updates.

4. Background Caveat: This outlook is based on probable conditions so it is not 100% certain. Summary of recent and current climate conditions Rainfall, temperatures, streamflows, lake levels, severe weather events Seasonal climate forecast Recent SST trends SST impacts on SE climate: fall winter temperatures and rainfall; spring rainfall, others? Forecast skill, confidence, uncertainty Probability of 2-year La Niña

5. Importance Importance to ACF sectors, especially vulnerable sectors, and possible impacts by sub-basin Municipal water utilities Agriculture, green industry, forests Energy: electricity production & liquid fuel distribution and use Wildlife: terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem health Recreation, navigation Coastal communities: salt water intrusion

6. How can you decided what to do? Compare benefits and risks for four situations: Manage for dry conditions and Drought occurs Drought does not occur Manage for normal conditions and Drought occurs Drought does not occur

7. Where to learn more? Web for more information Contacts for questions What is the NIDIS ACF pilot project? Short statement of NIDIS purpose List of participating institutions

8. Communication plan Press releases, updates Ag Extension and others Webinars, list-serve Drought.gov