PacifiCorp RTO project team Presentation to SSG-WI Planning WG PDX Business Center, 7/31/02 Economic Assessment of Generation & Transmission Expansion Scenarios in WECC

Models used in Power Market analysis Econometric models - stochastic models that correlate trades and prices to time of year, weather or hydro conditions, fuel price & supply, etc. Used for predicting forward price curves, spark spreads, price spikes, etc. For M&A analysis, project assessment, for assessing credit risk, risk management, trade analytics and support, etc, etc Game theory models - KBS-based models that simulate traders’ behavior (always within the rules!). Used for developing/testing trading strategies; for stress testing of market designs, detecting/monitoring unusual trades, etc. Power market models - that optimize centrally-dispatched markets; or minimize traders’ production costs in meeting their load service obligations within transmission rights; or price transmission rights/congestion rents, etc. System planning tools - for generator interconnection design and impact studies; for network expansion planning, for computing flowpath ratings, etc A wide range - some old, some new...

Single Area OK for small control areas No congestion Ignores transmission ‘Bubble’ view Major flowpaths only Transportation model Better, but… Power doesn’t flow like that! Complete network Very complex All network constraints Only way to track line flows Still an approximation... CG&E KUEN LG&EE EKPC OVEC WVPA PSI NOLOAD 217 NUKE-A 218 NUKE-B 221 HYDRO 222 MIDCOAL 216 ADDON 225 VIKING 219 MIDCOALP 215 CONDENS 214 CARIOCA 220 BIGCOAL 223 BIGCOIL 213 WESTIE WESTIE MIDTIE MIDTIE EASTIE EASTIE REACTOR 106 MARYLOAD 104 ANNELOAD 105 ERIKLOAD 108 COAL-A 101 COAL-B 102 MIDOIL 107 Complexity Simple High Good Low Accuracy Network models in Power Market analysis

Trade-off in Market vs Network modeling Simple Network model Complex Sophistication of Market model High Low Trading models System planning models Production simulation models Power market models CG&E KUEN LG&EE EKPC OVEC WVPA PSI MIDOIL 107 Ideal combination (doesn’t yet exist)

Power Market simulation overview Market Modeling Market Simulation Scenario Analysis User specified scenarios Additional Scenarios Goal:To economicphysical Goal:To predict the economic and physical performance of large power networks Generation size, capability costs (fuel, O&M) availability outages Transmission network data constraints outages operation rules Load distribution hourly variation max MWh, MW annual growth Capacity factors Revenues/rents Flows/Congestion Clearing Prices

The heart of ABB-MS Why Linearize? Speed: Enables fast Linear Program (LP) solution Convergence: LP always a convex problem Accuracy: Flows on HV circuits modeled well Acceptability: Generally recognised by Industry DC Optimal Power Flow Transmission Constrained Economic Dispatch with linearized power flow model

Transmission Network Constraints Thermal Line Limits –Maximum MW on any line –Percentage of MVA rating HVDC –Fixed or controllable –Maximum flow: different for each direction –Limits on MW changes per hour Phase Shifter –MW Capacity –Angular limits –Limits on angle changes per hour Interface Constraints –Limit on net flows on selected lines –Models a variety of operating constraints: â Reliability, Angular/Voltage stability, Area Interchange Limits

Transmission Network Constraints Combined Generation & Transmission Nomograms Interface limits can be a function of generation variables –Online capacity –Reserve capability, etc Example: Southern California import nomogram Total Flow From East Total Flow From North Limit for online G1 Limit for online G2 > G1

Output Summary

Where we’re at with ABB-MS Hand over to Kurt various plots of Y2004 flowpath flows, generator nodal price differences, load factors,etc on-line demo of selected results

Keys to successful use of COUGER Easy to change data Large Base Case data set + Small, modular, incremental changes Similar data stored/displayed together Describe changes from Base Case to User Easily interpreted results Summary file: Physical and Financial Performance, with or without time element Summary file: highlight important constraints Graphical representation of results Case comparison: Summary and Graphical

Keys to successful use of COUGER Flexibility : User selects which hours to run –entire year, one hour, sampled weeks, etc constraints to model (accuracy vs. time) –Monitored Lines –Interface constraints –Individually, or as Groups via database filters results to view –Clearing Price for selected buses –Flows, Shadow Prices for selected lines and flowpaths –Total generation, load and average clearing price for selected areas Total Flexibility via User-controlled proprietary database

Tasks to complete Planning WG’s analysis... Given the necessary data, the steps would be: Set up a complete data set for Y2008: generators (capacity, costs, availability); loads by control area (annual energy, monthly maximum demand and hourly demand profile); and transmission network (a complete WSCC system or other as specified by WG) Run economic analyses using ABB-MS for a set of scenarios (fuel prices, new generator type and location, wet/dry hydro production) as specified by the WG Report to the Planning WG, on a timetable to be mutually agreed, the prospective resource utilization, system flows, congestion incidence and cost, and other agreed economic indicators Repeat the above analysis for Y2018, incorporating a specified set of transmission expansion options, taking account of agreed load growth and generator expansion/ fuel price options

What the Planning WG would need to do... Provide a complete transmission network data (e.g. in the form of a WSCC loadflow case in PSS/E format), circuit thermal ratings and interface/flowpath ratings, phase-shifter and HVDC link data. Provide load data (monthly energy and max demand, hourly load profile by control area/utility, annual growth rates). Dispatchable load data. Provide generator data (type, capacity, heat rates, ramp rates, outage rates, O&M, and fuel costs, hydro production MW/hr in wet and dry conditions). Specify the new generators (type, location, commissioning date, economic data and expected performance data) to be added Specify the transmission expansions to be studied (terminations, circuit data, ratings and commissioning date), and the combination/sequence of generation/ transmission projects selected to be studied. Also, the Planning WG would have to compute the effect on interface/ flowpath ratings of the specified combination of generation/transmission expansion projects that are selected to be studied. We are content to leave the interpretation of analysis results and the compilation of all reports to the Planning WG