From GAIM to AIMES Guy P. Brasseur Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Chair of IGBP

IGBP II Structure

IGBP Projects Atmosphere: IGAC Ocean: IMBER and GLOBEC Land: GLP Ocean-Atmosphere: SOLAS Land-Atmosphere: iLEAPS Land-Ocean: LOICZ Integration: PAGES and AIMES GLP AIMES

Earth System Science Partnership Health Start START

The IGBP-AIMES Project

Analysis, Integrtation and Modelling of the Earth System Directions: Synthesis of the findings from the different IGBP Projects into a coherent framework Coupling between the biogeochemical system and the physical climate system (link between IGBP and WCRP) Coupling the natural system with the human system (link between IGBP and IHDP)

Institutional Networking Better involve research institutions that have a broad approach in Earth System Research These institutions could provide resources in support of IGBP science. AIMES would offer to these institutions a platform to develop joint projects, discuss scientific achievements, develop a vision for future research, organize specific activities such as model intercomparisons, develop educational activities (PhD and post-doc program) etc. This network would establish links between developed and emerging countries.

AIMES Institutional Network Initial Suggestions NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA - AIMES International Project Office Hadley Centre, UK MPIs - Hamburg, Jena, Mainz, Germany Frontiers Programme, Japan CSIRO Complex Systems Programme, Australia IPSL, France Tyndall Centre/QUEST, UK & PIK, Germany EOS, U. of New Hampshire, USA Columbia University, NY, USA CAS/Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China Indian Institute for Science, Bangalore INPE/CPTEC, Brazil etc..

Analysis, Integrtation and Modelling of the Earth System Specific Actions related to GEIA: From stactic (natural) emission inventories to emission models to be coupled with chemical-transport atmospheric models. From static (anthropogenic) model inventories to emission models that account for the human dimension (economic models) From Carbon-Climate to Carbon- Chemistry-Climate modeling (and intercomparision). Dynamic vegetation models Scenario activities

Earth System Models of different levels of complexity

Earth System Modelling

Models of Dynamic Vegetation

Cox et al., Hadley Centre Kiang et al., GISS Dynamic Vegetation in Earth System Models

Carbon-Nitrogen-Climate Interactions

Carbon Cycle-Climate Interactions C4MIP

Atmospheric Chemistry- Ecosystems-Climate Interactions

Processes affecting stratospheric ozone and temperature Chemical reaction rates Stratospheric circulation PSC formation Anthropogenic emissions of CO 2, CFCs, CH 4, N 2 O Greenhouse gases Stratospheric ozone Stratospheric temperature CH 4 oxidation Stratospheric water vapour UV Troposphere-stratosphere exchange Polar stratospheric ozone depends on a complex system of chemical and dynamical parameters and processes Stratospheric chlorine & nitrogen oxides concentrations Vertical propagation of planetary and gravity waves

Interactions between the Physical and Human Systems

Introducing the Human Dimensions into Earth System Models Ecosystem function & health Human welfare and health

Integrated history of natural and human system change: spatially explicit, mapped globally Scale: last 8000 years, with higher spatial and temporal resolution for the last 300 and 100 years 1.Test coupled biophysical-human models against the integrated history 2.Project future of the ‘human enterprise’ with more confidence and skill, based on models tested against the integrated history IHOPE: Integrated History of People on Earth

Conclusions AIMES should be different from GAIM. It will have to define themes (analyses, modeling) that involve many of the IGBP Projects, and has interfaces with WCRP, IHDP and Diversitas. It should remain focussed on a limited numbers of initiatives, but these should be challenging and at the frontier of what is possible. The focus should be on the science. The involvement of emerging countries is key.